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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #441
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:04am Sep 6, 2013 7:04am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} And a pin bar could form on the daily later on signalling a buy - we'll have to wait and see.
You mean considering the 30 Aug 105.59 level as LLS? This seems to me a very minor level. Maybe not to much selling pressure would be created by a fake breakout of that LLS to be useful to bigs?
  • #442
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:29am Sep 6, 2013 7:29am
This is USDCHF Daily. I know it's not a "perfect" setup, we have no pinbar but seems to me quite the same theme, as we have a strong break up a LLS but no follow through, next bar (today's) comes back lower than LLS.
What about?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #443
  • Edited 7:50am Sep 6, 2013 7:35am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
{quote} You mean considering the 30 Aug 105.59 level as LLS? This seems to me a very minor level. Maybe not to much selling pressure would be created by a fake breakout of that LLS to be useful to bigs?

Agreed, which is why I am not sure about it. (I should caveat I only saw this thread yesterday and am playing catch up). However, the compression upwards makes me wonder whether the bigs will push it up to the HHR at 107.297 to take out the stops and then drive it down again (or up further). EDIT - the LLS, although minor was also BRN 105.

The purpose of my post was to gently direct the cesar8 to look further at where he was trading and the direction. I thought it would help to zoom out a little.
  • #444
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:37am Sep 6, 2013 7:37am
Ghous, what are you thoughts on taking a trade as the candle closes on Friday - do you wait for Sunday/Monday to enter the trade?
  • #445
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:40am Sep 6, 2013 7:40am
Quoting madaneeraj
{quote} Great! would be interesting to see your entry (if you can share). As its a slow moving pair would you be waiting for retest? Thanks, Maddy
A lot will depend on how the fake out bar closes. These questions can only be answered then.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #446
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:40am Sep 6, 2013 7:40am
Quoting Pinbar
A short explanation of the how to look for these levels and how to trade them for people not sure. {image}
Good stuff Steve

g.
I believe . . .
  • #447
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:43am Sep 6, 2013 7:43am
Quoting KOS-fx
Guys... Yesterday I watched a video on order flow partly... He mention that banks also have to bear a execution cost (may be spread) which is a big concern for them.. is it true????????.. Do banks or big boys also have to pay spread...or execution cost.... If they unable to find high liquid market for their big lots then this execution cost go high as price vary..... Sorry if this question is off the track but I like to learn more on this Order flow scenario.... What I think is once you understand the work behind the stage it is easy to understand...
Hey KOS,

Of course they are paying the spreads. Execution is just an additional source of worry for them. The very existence of the fake out scenario exists to enable these traders to unload their positions and take part in the market.


g.
I believe . . .
  • #448
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:43am Sep 6, 2013 7:43am
Quoting sfk2k
Hi Ghous, Great work with analysis of the big boys' play! I see people here are working hard to get the fake-out strategy on 4H charts, with some success and losses due to "fake" fake-outs. I am of the opinion that looking for fake-outs and using them would be much less stressful and successful on the daily charts, than on the 4H. I can see how it would present fewer opportunities for entry but they would be few "good ones" rather than more "bad ones". Again that's just my opinion. I kinda wish there were more threads like these...
The dailies will always be a step ahead in terms f their reliability compared to intra day.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #449
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:45am Sep 6, 2013 7:45am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} I think you will find that the SP this occured at is a long way back in time, too long in my opinion. Also, the pullback is not part of a fake out setup, once it pulls back that far, we are probably already out of the trade. Or should be. Price has been trying to brake out of this consolidation since 2010, the current area of where price is, is tricky and it could find support there for a push up. I would not short this. right now. {image}
Very much agree with Steve,

But yeah if price can break this trouble area now it may head further down. Still no solid reason to be short though.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #450
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:46am Sep 6, 2013 7:46am
Quoting cesar8
{quote} Well, this trade worked and best price keeps falling. but I play the take profit. The breaking of S & R is best, combining it with the price action. Ghous Thank you for your dedication, keep going. {image}
What S/R mate? And what Price action? Are you referring to it in general or you took a particular bar (looks unlikely as I don't see anything at least on that TF)

g.
I believe . . .
  • #451
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:49am Sep 6, 2013 7:49am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} I recently saw a youtube video (im not linking it on purpose cause then i might be stamped as commercial member lol) In the example 75m was sold. The guy has some nice slippage of 1pip. (i think it was like 24m got filled at market price, then 25m with 0.5 pip slippage and the rest had 1pip slippage.) With this slippage they lost 7k more than without slippage. The example was supposed to be realistic... Anyway if you trade during the day (small swings etc) then you see how much this can mean...
Yes. He probably gave the example for the heck of it. In the real world no big trader in his right mind would want to execute the entire load via a single order regardless of how much liquidity is available.

Also don't forget, these guys aren't really looking for situations with high liquidity, they are looking for liquidity vacuums that they can fill up. Its the only way they can trade.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #452
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:53am Sep 6, 2013 7:53am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
This is USDCHF Daily. I know it's not a "perfect" setup, we have no pinbar but seems to me quite the same theme, as we have a strong break up a LLS but no follow through, next bar (today's) comes back lower than LLS. What about?{image}
hey there,

There is still a lot of traffic that price will have to fight through to close strong and give us a free way to take a trade in. A close under 9350 at least, in which case the bar highs under 9300 could come into play.

Still just looking at the clouds and making out patterns as there is still a lot of time for the week's activity to come to a close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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g.
I believe . . .
  • #453
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:55am Sep 6, 2013 7:55am
Quoting hollowhead
Ghous, what are you thoughts on taking a trade as the candle closes on Friday - do you wait for Sunday/Monday to enter the trade?
Of course. Waiting for the Sunday/Monday open is always the more logical option as opposed to jumping the guns on Friday and then only hoping that the market gaps in your favor on Monday.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #454
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:57am Sep 6, 2013 7:57am
Thought so, but then I thought a gap in favour of the trade you would take, may then invalidate it due to SL size, then I thought but the gap would possibly fill, hence wanting claification - cheers!!
  • #455
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:57am Sep 6, 2013 7:57am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Yes. He probably gave the example for the heck of it. In the real world no big trader in his right mind would want to execute the entire load via a single order regardless of how much liquidity is available. Also don't forget, these guys aren't really looking for situations with high liquidity, they are looking for liquidity vacuums that they can fill up. Its the only way they can trade. g.
What do you mean by "they are looking for liquidity vacuums that they can fill up. Its the only way they can trade."
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #456
  • Sep 6, 2013 8:02am Sep 6, 2013 8:02am
Quoting hollowhead
Thought so, but then I thought a gap in favour of the trade you would take, may then invalidate it due to SL size, then I thought but the gap would possibly fill, hence wanting claification - cheers!!
yeah, and besides the gap issue, the market when it opens for the new week, will need to position itself for the day and the week and will usually start off really slow at times, or go off with a bang! Either ways its better to be out of a trade wishing you were in rather than in a trade wishing you were out.

People tend to absolutely lose their minds if they were planning a on a trade and then "miss" it. Its totally fine to be doing that if it was all for the noble cause of risk reduction.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #457
  • Sep 6, 2013 8:03am Sep 6, 2013 8:03am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} What do you mean by "they are looking for liquidity vacuums that they can fill up. Its the only way they can trade." Stephen
You'll know what I mean, when you go back to your charts and notice what usually ends up happening to major outbursts in either direction.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #458
  • Sep 6, 2013 8:04am Sep 6, 2013 8:04am
Quoting ghous
{quote}Either ways its better to be out of a trade wishing you were in rather than in a trade wishing you were out. People tend to absolutely lose their minds if they were planning a on a trade and then "miss" it. Its totally fine to be doing that if it was all for the noble cause of risk reduction. g.
I'm one of them - losing is ok with me as long as I lose on a good trade (if you know what I mean). My downfall is always when I miss a trade (then I end up chasing - it's calls to me, seduces me, and then screws me!!
  • #459
  • Edited 8:22am Sep 6, 2013 8:06am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting ghous
{quote} You'll know what I mean, when you go back to your charts and notice what usually ends up happening to major outbursts in either direction. g.
Ahhh so thats what you mean
ahh got it!

Just like todays NFP report. Bann out, and bamm back. (EU)
Just beautiful what a nice vacuum can be left behind after a huge order...

And then they got the high price. If some big guy sits on it at the top its an easy trade for lot of pips...
(aka pushing back price into the vacuum, where it just falls back...)

Thanks!

(Is it what you meant? )

Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #460
  • Sep 6, 2013 8:27am Sep 6, 2013 8:27am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Ahhh so thats what you mean ahh got it! Just like todays NFP report. Bann out, and bamm back. Just beautiful what a nice vacuum can be left behind after a huge order... And then they got the high price. If some big guy sits on it at the top its an easy trade for lot of pips... (aka pushing back price into the vacuum, where it just falls back...) Thanks! (Is it what you meant? ) Stephen
No, its not necessary for the pros to push price higher and then sell it off. It doesn't make sense because they'll essentially be trading against themselves.

An external stimulus or an internal rumor sucks one side of the liquidity resulting in price shooting/dropping off in one direction desperately searching for the next spot on the chart to regain that equilibrium state. It is times like these that the pros will target which is essentially why you see large sell offs following large rallies and vice versa.

Also, the market itself has no identity. Its merely a representation of the crowd behavior. The markets are searching for that state of equilibrium because that is where the most liquidity will be found. The utopian scenario of buyers and sellers together perceiving the same value for the underlying and nicely balancing each other out yields itself, hence providing no incentive for price to change much.

There is a conflict of interest between us traders and other market participants. They require price to be as stable as possible. We, the traders, want it to oscillate wildly. The more it moves around the bigger the price differentials, the more the trading opportunities. Its just human instinct to not be totally happy with what they have, even if its a lamborghini, as two wouldn't be that bad to have either. Hence comes the need (and the reason) for either party to eventually disagree and the liquidity equilibrium to get disturbed resulting in most of the moves that you see in the market.

The beauty of it all is, that this business has figured out how to profit from human emotions, every damn emotion that you can think of.

g.
I believe . . .
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