{quote} Thank you for your efort to post your trades . Regards
) and since then price has gone sideways and I am finished for this morning.
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #58,041
- Sep 2, 2013 2:02am Sep 2, 2013 2:02am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
) and since then price has gone sideways and I am finished for this morning.
- #58,047
- Sep 2, 2013 2:49am Sep 2, 2013 2:49am
This is a Non PVSRA trade so no need to bother to read any further, just put me on ignore. Just using volume and a little common sense.
usdjpy
So we see uj is in a downtrend. Volume is increasing on each move lower, showing those big bad MM's are selling. They are looking for the weak hands to bail, and testing for where the 'real buyers", i.e those who we need to pay attention to! are going to show up.
1st green arrow is diminishing signs of sellers, but with a big red wrb down to new lows (quite obviously the biggest red bar since 23 August). Now if the sellers are serious they need to keep punching price lower. To do this we expect to see more red bars with more volume.
2nd green arrow. Increase volume. Biggest green bar in the whole move down. Engulfs the prior red wrb bar. So this clearly shows that the activity is 'buyers'. No where else on the chart has this happened. Pay attention!!!
Leave a buy order and get filled. As a profit area lets see if we can get to prior highs. maybe we are just in a range?
Price holds where we thought we saw buyers, and subsequent new highs, with increased volume coming in, confirms that the buyers are keenly stepping up. Probably a few grumpy breakout sellers are also biting the bullet as well. So we can reduce risk, and get to breakeven.
There are also the basic sonic and 3 dragons entries for those who are less experienced with using volume correctly, or don't have the patience (and I completely understand this), to show some alternative set-ups.
If you understand anything about basic swings then you can see, on the 4 hour chart, why the price action happened, and why the price is now higher. The big boys have tried to see if the buyers at 97.00/96.90 are really still there and serious about buying at that level. They have done 2 things;
1) Stolen the long positions from those with cheap stops under 96.90.
2) They have also got the breakout traders screwed! Anyone who mindlessly sold once 96.90 got offered is now wishing they didn't.
Adding a median line gives us the probable path of price. Statistics over 70 years , repeat 70 years, (not just 20 weeks), have been proven, through all market conditions and types, that price heads to the median line 80% of the time. No guessing, wishing, hoping, just good old hard facts. So it now provides a high probability target. I'm not hoping that price will get back to break even so I can then 'guess' my profit level. I have control on my s/l and t/p, not some mythical MM. I'm just using probabilities. Boring I know, and definitely not as exciting as 'beating the big boys' at their own game. Oh, but wait, I am playing with the big boys now, I'm on their side, not fighting against them!
Price makes a new high so can make a profit floor. Now I am just going watch the swings up, and use them to lock in profit should the opportunity arise.
Next profit floor so minimum of 3RR locked in. There is a big green WRB, which could have been a logical profit target to the left. An aggressive play could have been to sell, and look for another buying entry for the next leg of the rally. I didn't want to give up my position, so just took the patience pills, and held the trade. 'Islander' is the master of this type of trade and probably would have made a lot more money than I did.
The two green arrows, show buyers pushing through supply. Paul the Octopus would probably be selling here, because they are high volume bars, and price is going up. The profit floor is hiding behind the evidence of buyers. If they get defeated, then I want to be out of the trade.
The TP gets done.
And the 60 mins shows how the swings all relate to each other. Higher highs and higher lows.
So final return is 5.58 RR. For me I only risk 1% of my account. Yeah, I know PVSRA traders are quite happy to have 20% or more in draw down, (which is not actually risk, the whole account itself is the risk) so I must be crap. So if I was foolish, or reckless enough to have 20% risk on this trade, then it gives 111% return.
Pips made were 223.
Oh, but wait. Let's use the Enron pip accounting method where by 1 pip can grow to 20 or 30 pips magically because we have 20~30 guesses on some pairs. So if I had 20 micro's then my pips would be '4,460 pips'.
So this is my last post on this thread.
I prefer to hold winning positions for days and weeks and run them to a logical profit target. PVSRA prefers to hold losing positions for days or weeks, adding to them, until, by default, price gets back to a positive area (or a margin call).
I like to be in control of my trades, waiting for my entry, under my rules. PVSRA is just a guess, followed by a series of guesses, until the market corrects (or doesn't). If it works for you then I'm happy for you and there is no need for me to participate in this thread any longer.
usdjpy
So we see uj is in a downtrend. Volume is increasing on each move lower, showing those big bad MM's are selling. They are looking for the weak hands to bail, and testing for where the 'real buyers", i.e those who we need to pay attention to! are going to show up.
1st green arrow is diminishing signs of sellers, but with a big red wrb down to new lows (quite obviously the biggest red bar since 23 August). Now if the sellers are serious they need to keep punching price lower. To do this we expect to see more red bars with more volume.
2nd green arrow. Increase volume. Biggest green bar in the whole move down. Engulfs the prior red wrb bar. So this clearly shows that the activity is 'buyers'. No where else on the chart has this happened. Pay attention!!!
Leave a buy order and get filled. As a profit area lets see if we can get to prior highs. maybe we are just in a range?
Price holds where we thought we saw buyers, and subsequent new highs, with increased volume coming in, confirms that the buyers are keenly stepping up. Probably a few grumpy breakout sellers are also biting the bullet as well. So we can reduce risk, and get to breakeven.
There are also the basic sonic and 3 dragons entries for those who are less experienced with using volume correctly, or don't have the patience (and I completely understand this), to show some alternative set-ups.
If you understand anything about basic swings then you can see, on the 4 hour chart, why the price action happened, and why the price is now higher. The big boys have tried to see if the buyers at 97.00/96.90 are really still there and serious about buying at that level. They have done 2 things;
1) Stolen the long positions from those with cheap stops under 96.90.
2) They have also got the breakout traders screwed! Anyone who mindlessly sold once 96.90 got offered is now wishing they didn't.
Adding a median line gives us the probable path of price. Statistics over 70 years , repeat 70 years, (not just 20 weeks), have been proven, through all market conditions and types, that price heads to the median line 80% of the time. No guessing, wishing, hoping, just good old hard facts. So it now provides a high probability target. I'm not hoping that price will get back to break even so I can then 'guess' my profit level. I have control on my s/l and t/p, not some mythical MM. I'm just using probabilities. Boring I know, and definitely not as exciting as 'beating the big boys' at their own game. Oh, but wait, I am playing with the big boys now, I'm on their side, not fighting against them!
Price makes a new high so can make a profit floor. Now I am just going watch the swings up, and use them to lock in profit should the opportunity arise.
Next profit floor so minimum of 3RR locked in. There is a big green WRB, which could have been a logical profit target to the left. An aggressive play could have been to sell, and look for another buying entry for the next leg of the rally. I didn't want to give up my position, so just took the patience pills, and held the trade. 'Islander' is the master of this type of trade and probably would have made a lot more money than I did.
The two green arrows, show buyers pushing through supply. Paul the Octopus would probably be selling here, because they are high volume bars, and price is going up. The profit floor is hiding behind the evidence of buyers. If they get defeated, then I want to be out of the trade.
The TP gets done.
And the 60 mins shows how the swings all relate to each other. Higher highs and higher lows.
So final return is 5.58 RR. For me I only risk 1% of my account. Yeah, I know PVSRA traders are quite happy to have 20% or more in draw down, (which is not actually risk, the whole account itself is the risk) so I must be crap. So if I was foolish, or reckless enough to have 20% risk on this trade, then it gives 111% return.
Pips made were 223.
Oh, but wait. Let's use the Enron pip accounting method where by 1 pip can grow to 20 or 30 pips magically because we have 20~30 guesses on some pairs. So if I had 20 micro's then my pips would be '4,460 pips'.
So this is my last post on this thread.
I prefer to hold winning positions for days and weeks and run them to a logical profit target. PVSRA prefers to hold losing positions for days or weeks, adding to them, until, by default, price gets back to a positive area (or a margin call).
I like to be in control of my trades, waiting for my entry, under my rules. PVSRA is just a guess, followed by a series of guesses, until the market corrects (or doesn't). If it works for you then I'm happy for you and there is no need for me to participate in this thread any longer.
- #58,048
- Sep 2, 2013 2:56am Sep 2, 2013 2:56am
{quote} Thanks - I have too many other things going on and my trading is suffering. I did take another buy after the R3 / 00 levels held and I banked in the 07:37 gmt bar - a red shooting star with good volume. That was a 78 pip rally from mid Frankies Hour ( the actual low to high took 89 minutes
- #58,051
- Sep 2, 2013 4:52am Sep 2, 2013 4:52am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #58,053
- Sep 2, 2013 5:04am Sep 2, 2013 5:04am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
This is a Non PVSRA trade so no need to bother to read any further, just put me on ignore. Just using volume and a little common sense. usdjpy So we see uj is in a downtrend. Volume is increasing on each move lower, showing those big bad MM's are selling. They are looking for the weak hands to bail, and testing for where the 'real buyers", i.e those who we need to pay attention to! are going to show up. 1st green arrow is diminishing signs of sellers, but with a big red wrb down to new lows (quite obviously the biggest red bar since 23 August)....
Thanks for an interesting and informative post. IF I had done my usual Monday morning homework and printed out my 4hr UsdJpy chart, I would have seen the same Andrews PF - and scratched my head, as I don't yet know how to use it in my trading!
There are others here in Sonic's tread who follow Sonic's 15m Classic entries - which are what Sonic continues to post - and I am certain that posts such as yours - especially with a logical target methodology - are very beneficial. When these markets move out of the summer doldrums and start having moves of thousands of PIPS rather than a few hundred pips such input will be even more helpful. I hope you will continue to participate
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #58,059
- Sep 2, 2013 6:13am Sep 2, 2013 6:13am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,075 Posts
This is a Non PVSRA trade so no need to bother to read any further, just put me on ignore. Just using volume and a little common sense. usdjpy So we see uj is in a downtrend. Volume is increasing on each move lower, showing those big bad MM's are selling. They are looking for the weak hands to bail, and testing for where the 'real buyers", i.e those who we need to pay attention to! are going to show up. 1st green arrow is diminishing signs of sellers, but with a big red wrb down to new lows (quite obviously the biggest red bar since 23 August)....
Impressive..
Sonic
- #58,060
- Sep 2, 2013 6:35am Sep 2, 2013 6:35am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Three Dragons KISS
For this month I am simplifying my charts and posts. I will be basing my posts on a notional $1,000.00 account for a US based trader - so 50:1 max.
Thus my entries will be for 1 mini contract and shown as 1, 2 or 3 (minis) as per my previous posts. Entries on my charts will be shown as a coloured arrow at the candle where entered and a tick of the opposite colour will be put on the candle where the trade was closed. The value of the trade will be shown in whole dollars which avoids any doubts over actual size, decimal points etc.
The Hard Stop Loss will be 10 pips + the spread - and seldom shown. In practice, the trading SL is the 1 min dragon.
This morning's posted charts gave +$12, +$11, +$44 and later post #58041 = +$46.
Now for the remainder of the day I'm joining the US guys on holiday
For this month I am simplifying my charts and posts. I will be basing my posts on a notional $1,000.00 account for a US based trader - so 50:1 max.
Thus my entries will be for 1 mini contract and shown as 1, 2 or 3 (minis) as per my previous posts. Entries on my charts will be shown as a coloured arrow at the candle where entered and a tick of the opposite colour will be put on the candle where the trade was closed. The value of the trade will be shown in whole dollars which avoids any doubts over actual size, decimal points etc.
The Hard Stop Loss will be 10 pips + the spread - and seldom shown. In practice, the trading SL is the 1 min dragon.
This morning's posted charts gave +$12, +$11, +$44 and later post #58041 = +$46.
Now for the remainder of the day I'm joining the US guys on holiday
Trading Levels with WRBs