Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 74 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,461
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:28am Aug 27, 2013 2:28am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} Don't worry my friend. I am a newbie too! We will all learn from each other.
Aren't we here to learn from each other? That's the purpose of this thread and all contributions!

I'm really happy that you are all part of it and are using your valuable time to study and apply these supply and demand concepts! As you can see, it's always the same thing over and over. Sebastian is a good example of all this. I can tell you that it works, etc, etc, but the proof is that other people are seeing the potential of SD trading using these "simple" concepts. It takes time, but the reward is huge, don't you think?

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,462
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:28am Aug 27, 2013 2:28am
Quoting Stefaan
Hi Guys and dolls, I have put in an othter pending order long on NZDUSD H4 Its closing in Grtz Stefaan {image}
We are very close to a daily demand level, but it is not fresh. Going long here is probably not a good idea.
  • #1,463
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:30am Aug 27, 2013 2:30am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Aren't we here to learn from each other? That's the purpose of this thread and all contributions! I'm really happy that you are all part of it and are using your valuable time to study and apply these supply and demand concepts! As you can see, it's always the same thing over and over. Sebastian is a good example of all this. I can tell you that it works, etc, etc, butt the proof is that other people are seeing the potential of SD trading using these "simple" concepts. It takes time, but the reward is huge, don't you think? Alfonso
Absolutely my friend. I am very thankful for your wisdom.
  • #1,464
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:32am Aug 27, 2013 2:32am
Quoting ashtrader
{quote} Hi Alphonso, I had given up on demand supply, but listening to you , I feel has given me hope this can work. I agree , follow your plan, get stopped out several times, only have a win rate of 40-50%, and make sure we will ATLEAST 3:1 . Leave your ego on the backburner!! On average what are your stop sizes? When you say on gold you will only take confirmation trade, does that mean you will wait on the 4 hour for a lower low to form and then a pull back into the 1hour level. Just a little confused. You really have this thread very active,...
Hi Ash!

Doing my best to reply everyone, it's not easy since the thread is very active lately and I also need to trade and disconnect from trading at the same time, you know what I mean.

As far as confirmation is concerned, and this is key not only for confirmation trades but for set & forget:

  1. IF you are waiting for H4 confirmation, then the entry is on H4, you don't have to drill it down to H1
  2. IF you are waiting for H1 confirmation, the same thing
  3. The entry is on the same timeframe where you are waiting for confirmation
  4. Use always the same charts for your entries, don't switch from h1 to h4. Decide if you want to trade on H1 or H4, and do always use the same levels. When you gain the experience, you may do it but it will always stay the same, the entry, confirmation or S&F, is always on the timeframe where you drew your levels

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,465
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:37am Aug 27, 2013 2:37am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Aren't we here to learn from each other? That's the purpose of this thread and all contributions! I'm really happy that you are all part of it and are using your valuable time to study and apply these supply and demand concepts! As you can see, it's always the same thing over and over. Sebastian is a good example of all this. I can tell you that it works, etc, etc, but the proof is that other people are seeing the potential of SD trading using these "simple" concepts. It takes time, but the reward is huge, don't you think? Alfonso
Yes Alfonso it is.
But you are the spirit behind this group of people. And I wanne thank you very mutch for your time, efford and wisdom.
You motivate a lot of people and giving me a chance in this dangerous financial world.

I promise i will help where i can.

And free time is very inportant, the most of the people in this bussness are getting burndout very young.

Greets
  • #1,466
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:39am Aug 27, 2013 2:39am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} We are very close to a daily demand level, but it is not fresh. Going long here is probably not a good idea.
Yes i think you are wricht. I gonna move my pending order to 0.75287
  • #1,467
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:48am Aug 27, 2013 2:48am
Quoting Stefaan
{quote} Yes i think you are wricht. I gonna move my pending order to 0.75287
I suggest you wait and see what price does. It could very well continue past the demand level, making us look for shorts.

Wait for confirmation in this case.

Remember, ONLY do set and forget trades counter trend if the level is original AND fresh. Not just fresh.


And never trade on a level that has been touched twice (isn't fresh).

Wait and see what happens. We need confirmation for NZDUSD.
  • #1,468
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:52am Aug 27, 2013 2:52am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} I suggest you wait and see what price does. It could very well continue past the demand level, making us look for shorts. Wait for confirmation in this case. Remember, ONLY do set and forget trades counter trend if the level is original AND fresh. Not just fresh. And never trade on a level that has been touched twice (isn't fresh). Wait and see what happens. We need confirmation for NZDUSD.
Thx very mutch for your help. I have to train more. I will follow NZD closely.

If you look for confirmation, do look at the breaking of the trend line? Confirmation for is not easy.
  • #1,469
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:54am Aug 27, 2013 2:54am
Quoting Axlz
{quote} I suggest you wait and see what price does. It could very well continue past the demand level, making us look for shorts. Wait for confirmation in this case. Remember, ONLY do set and forget trades counter trend if the level is original AND fresh. Not just fresh. And never trade on a level that has been touched twice (isn't fresh). Wait and see what happens. We need confirmation for NZDUSD.
Totally agree.
In this case we need a confirmation trade. Wait if price reacts, create new fresh and oryginal demand on h1 or h4, and after retest - try to enter.
I know that this is difficult to wait for a valid setup, but this is what's all about. Patience.
  • #1,470
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:54am Aug 27, 2013 2:54am
Quoting Stefaan
{quote} Thx very mutch for your help. I have to train more. I will follow NZD closely. If you look for confirmation, do look at the breaking of the trend line? Confirmation for is not easy.
I don't use the trend lines.

Instead, I follow a rule I remember ALfonso saying in the beginning of this thread.

He said for confirmation, he wants for price to take out two demand/supply zones. That signals a change in the trend has occurred. I follow this rule.
  • #1,471
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:57am Aug 27, 2013 2:57am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} looking for this too, but my level is a bitt higher, at 1.0547 {image}

I also agree with you
  • #1,472
  • Aug 27, 2013 2:58am Aug 27, 2013 2:58am
OK, i will wright this down.

Thank you guys for having patience with my unpatience :-)
  • #1,473
  • Aug 27, 2013 3:17am Aug 27, 2013 3:17am
Quoting Stefaan
Hi guys, Mfinab, thx for your comment on GBPUSD last week. Im still holding that position. Its the first time i hold a position for so long. I believe GBP will drop. I going to try to keep my positions on H4 and maybe ride the drop. whe will see. Grtz to all Stef
Hi Stefaan,

Thanks for your comment, I'm still short too on GBPUSD with +182 pips and 1st TP for me is 1.5453. I am also on GBPAUD but I had to remove some (scale in) positions at 7400, thought that it was about to make a new high.
  • #1,474
  • Aug 27, 2013 3:21am Aug 27, 2013 3:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} These are the D1/W1 SD areas I have on my spreadsheet. Hope it's of any help to you and others. Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso, can you please share to me your last Supply and Demand Curve spreadsheet? I saw that you have a nice bunch of commodities that I dont have on mine. I'd like to have them please.

Thanks
  • #1,475
  • Aug 27, 2013 3:48am Aug 27, 2013 3:48am
Quoting elliotrader
hi alfonso and seb! sebastian i hope u dont mind im using ur pic to ask my Q and illustrate my thought process. 1-i wonder what made u short bias on the daily tf before price has even made a LL.is it bc it was unable to brk the highs and actually broke the lows ? ...also if thats the logic behind so would u consider "3" to be demand for the same reason only with breaking highs ? 2-would u guys agree that more conservative short will be to wait for LL and demand to be violatedconsumed and than join the leg down by finding new supply zone that will...
Hi Elliot!

The thinking process and logic is always the same. Ascending D1 trendline was solidly broken, last week all time highs solidly taken out (blue beads), pullback into the brand new D1 supply area, D1 supply drilled to H4 and short! Pity my EA didn't trigger that trade, looking into it! But well, that's part of trading as well! At least Sebastian took it On to next one!

Off for some climbing now! Will reply to the rest of messages later on! Have a great morning!
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 124 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,476
  • Aug 27, 2013 4:21am Aug 27, 2013 4:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} These are the D1/W1 SD areas I have on my spreadsheet. Hope it's of any help to you and others. Alfonso {image}

alfonso, thanks a lot for your reply, of course you always help.

i viewed once again your video about the spreadsheet, and i found my mistake. it is not automatically updated. thats why i have all the differences.

sorry to bother you.

have a nice day

  • #1,477
  • Aug 27, 2013 4:24am Aug 27, 2013 4:24am
alfonso thank you very much for ur reply!

enjoy climbing and have a great day!
  • #1,478
  • Aug 27, 2013 6:43am Aug 27, 2013 6:43am
hi guys, i just find a long entry on eurjpy h1, i dont know if its valid or not since daily demand its not fres but we are in a up trend.

have a great one folks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy1.PNG Size: 68 KB
passion and discipline
  • #1,479
  • Aug 27, 2013 6:50am Aug 27, 2013 6:50am
yes - this one looks pretty nice.

thanks for sharing

Quoting rohule
hi guys, i just find a long entry on eurjpy h1, i dont know if its valid or not since daily demand its not fres but we are in a up trend. have a great one folks {image}
  • #1,480
  • Aug 27, 2013 7:03am Aug 27, 2013 7:03am
Keeping a close eye on that fresh EU 4hr overhead supply zone as it appears the timing could play out that EU could hit that supply zone (stacked within daily supply, not fresh but also not engulfed) just about the time that the USD index hits fresh 4 hr demand zone (upper blue) that is stacked on fresh Daily demand zone (lower blue).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.h4.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdindexh4.png Size: 46 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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