Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 72 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,421
  • Edited 7:40am Aug 26, 2013 7:14am | Edited 7:40am
Hi to all,
Guys, what dou you think about short trade on 9 pip supply zone in USD/JPY H1 ?
we are bouncing from Daily supply zone...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjp daily.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy H1.png Size: 46 KB
  • #1,422
  • Aug 26, 2013 7:18am Aug 26, 2013 7:18am
Quoting caparzo
Hi to all, Guys, what dou you think about short trade on 7 pip supply zone in USD/JPY H1 ? we are bouncing from Daily supply zone... {image} {image}
The candle you have marked on the 1H is incorrect. It should be the candle next to it (bullish candle).

And I'm not 100% sure that zone is valid, as it has not taken out any demand. Hopefully someone else can clarify.
  • #1,423
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:14am Aug 26, 2013 8:14am
Hi Alfonso
Would you consider a zone that goes back as far as 2 or even 3 years as a still valid zone, whether it's fresh or not?
Thanks
  • #1,424
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:31am Aug 26, 2013 8:31am
Quoting Georji
Hi Alfonso Would you consider a zone that goes back as far as 2 or even 3 years as a still valid zone, whether it's fresh or not? Thanks
Yes, I would definetely consider a zone that goes back 2 or more years. You can look as far back in time as needed to look for zones! But do not believe in what I say, see it with your own eyes. Do some backtesting!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,425
  • Edited 8:41am Aug 26, 2013 8:38am | Edited 8:41am
hello traders or alfonso,

i was working with the rectangular indi at gu: taking the values from the spreadsheet.

now i have one doubt. for the daily supply there is 1.5530/15482 - imho that looks not correct.

can somebody verify , please.

best regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-26 gu_d_sd_.png Size: 24 KB
  • #1,426
  • Aug 26, 2013 8:49am Aug 26, 2013 8:49am
Hi guys,

Mfinab, thx for your comment on GBPUSD last week. Im still holding that position. Its the first time i hold a position for so long. I believe GBP will drop. I going to try to keep my positions on H4 and maybe ride the drop. whe will see.
Grtz to all
Stef
  • #1,427
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:05am Aug 26, 2013 9:05am
Quoting astock
hello traders or alfonso, i was working with the rectangular indi at gu: taking the values from the spreadsheet. now i have one doubt. for the daily supply there is 1.5530/15482 - imho that looks not correct. can somebody verify , please. best regards {image}
These are the D1/W1 SD areas I have on my spreadsheet. Hope it's of any help to you and others.
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 139 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,428
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:12am Aug 26, 2013 9:12am
Quoting Stefaan
Hi guys, Mfinab, thx for your comment on GBPUSD last week. Im still holding that position. Its the first time i hold a position for so long. I believe GBP will drop. I going to try to keep my positions on H4 and maybe ride the drop. whe will see. Grtz to all Stef
Im expecting GBPUSD to reach 1.54980. Lets wait and see.
  • #1,429
  • Aug 26, 2013 10:19am Aug 26, 2013 10:19am
Quoting fattony64
Hi All, short EURCAD on daily supply..any advice ? {image}

hi tony,

I am treding that pair to and im specting to go short as well, but we are in a not fresh level but we are very high in the curve. so i will short the eurcad if the price absorbs the demand area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.PNG Size: 69 KB
passion and discipline
  • #1,430
  • Aug 26, 2013 12:40pm Aug 26, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting sebkor6
Hi there, I think that there will be a nice oppotrunity to catch down move on NASDAQ emini. Price touched fresh weekly and daily supply level. Question: what can we do in that case? As always, i will be waiting for confirmation. I prefer scenario which i drawn on h1. Local trendline need to be broken, price should create new supply level, which I allways call "confirmation S&D level", and after retest - enter. What do you think about h4 supply level? Can we try to enter short there? {image} {image} {image}

I took NASDAQ emini according to h4 supply.
I can't say if the daily supply was original or not, because i couldn't look that far in the past.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #enqu3daily 1.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: #enqu3h4 1.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,431
  • Edited 3:47pm Aug 26, 2013 3:29pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} I took NASDAQ emini according to h4 supply. I can't say if the daily supply was original or not, because i couldn't look that far in the past. {image} {image}
I had that same short on Nasdaq E-mini (USTEC on my broker) Sebastian, but for whatever reason my entry was not triggered. The same happend with my entry on Russell 2000 (US2000), it was not triggered for some reason. Need to see what happened, it's all related to my ea, testing it live now and gave me some problems! Silly! But looks like a nice trade. You won't be able to see if it's original or not, because it's all time high in history It's original then.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 123 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,432
  • Aug 26, 2013 4:20pm Aug 26, 2013 4:20pm
hi alfonso and seb!

sebastian i hope u dont mind im using ur pic to ask my Q and illustrate my thought process.

1-i wonder what made u short bias on the daily tf before price has even made a LL.is it bc it was unable to brk the highs and actually broke the lows ? ...also if thats the logic behind so would u consider "3" to be demand for the same reason only with breaking highs ?

2-would u guys agree that more conservative short will be to wait for LL and demand to be violatedconsumed and than join the leg down by finding new supply zone that will be created on 41 hr with tg as the extreme demand below?

you see, i was thinking that bc we are in all time high territory and there is no supply on the left i would first want to see demand being decisively engulfedconsumed .
im not criticizing and im well aware its all about probabilities but would love to understand ur thought process and maybe pick up on somethng i have missed.
in hindsight i can see it worked and i also believe ur SL was tight so it was good r:r if im not mistaken but once again im just trying to follow ur thought process when u took it live.

appreciate any feedback and i thank u again for this thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #enqu3daily 1.png Size: 76 KB
  • #1,433
  • Aug 26, 2013 6:01pm Aug 26, 2013 6:01pm
i just miss a couple of trades on usdjpy and eurjpy, bouth are high in the curve, absorbing demand zones and usdjpy is in a downtrend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.PNG Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.PNG Size: 79 KB
passion and discipline
  • #1,434
  • Aug 26, 2013 9:04pm Aug 26, 2013 9:04pm
Quoting rohule
i just miss a couple of trades on usdjpy and eurjpy, bouth are high in the curve, absorbing demand zones and usdjpy is in a downtrend. {image} {image}
The same can be said for most JPY crosses.

The issue here is, if you take trades on two of them, you're essentially doubling your risk (and profits), as they are correlated.

If you want to do that it's fine, but I'm just making sure you're aware.
  • #1,435
  • Aug 26, 2013 10:54pm Aug 26, 2013 10:54pm
HI

i think that we can look for shorts on gbp aud
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud week.PNG Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud d.PNG Size: 98 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud h4.PNG Size: 95 KB
  • #1,436
  • Aug 26, 2013 11:21pm Aug 26, 2013 11:21pm
As a confirmation for shorts on gbp aud, i think that we can either be looking for long positions on aud usd.

On weekly we are in demand zone (here i have some doubts about it. I think that area is a reaction from lower demand area).
On daily we have fresh demand. In this area i will look for confirmation trade on h1. As always, price needs to react in this level and create new h1 or h4 demand.

One question. Can we set "fire and forget" trade according to the h4 demand? (on picture).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd weekly.PNG Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd d.PNG Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd h4.PNG Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd h1.PNG Size: 98 KB
  • #1,437
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:00am Aug 27, 2013 12:00am
Quoting sebkor6
As a confirmation for shorts on gbp aud, i think that we can either be looking for long positions on aud usd. On weekly we are in demand zone (here i have some doubts about it. I think that area is a reaction from lower demand area). On daily we have fresh demand. In this area i will look for confirmation trade on h1. As always, price needs to react in this level and create new h1 or h4 demand. One question. Can we set "fire and forget" trade according to the h4 demand? (on picture). {image} {image} {image} {image}
I am not trading any AUD pairs except for AUDNZD at the moment.

looking at AU, it seems like market dynamics have changed. It could be heading down from here.


AUDNZD looks to be unaffected, as these market changes didn't affect its direction.
  • #1,438
  • Edited 12:32am Aug 27, 2013 12:02am | Edited 12:32am
Quoting rohule
i just miss a couple of trades on usdjpy and eurjpy, bouth are high in the curve, absorbing demand zones and usdjpy is in a downtrend. {image} {image}
Hi Rohule!

I was lucky and I didn't miss the USDJPY and EURJPY shorts. I had a small loss on usdjpy trying to catch the level, but then in a second opportunity I was triggered correctly and still holding. So I am now short on usdjpy and eurjpy based on what you have said on your post. Same thing happened on gbpjpy. Both trades are at breakeven now, moved my SL above previous H1 supply and waiting to see if it wants to run a little bit! I am not posting the eurjpy and gbpjpy charts because they are very similar.

These 3 pairs are highly correlated, but I do trade all of them at the same time, I am happy with the risk. Many many times, one level will be missed on a couple of them but on the 3rd you will be triggered. I used to "choose" in the past, but I got angry with myself because Murphy's law apply on trading. If you choose between 3 setups, the one you choose will most likely be the loss or the one you miss So, now I have setups on all I see, it's a game's number. What we can do is lower the risk those trades.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 121 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,439
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:21am Aug 27, 2013 12:21am
Looks like we have GBPUSD moving down again. Time to look for shorts if I see demand being taken out.

Also looking for shorts on GBPCHF.
  • #1,440
  • Aug 27, 2013 12:39am Aug 27, 2013 12:39am
Alfonso,

What do you think of my limit order on AUDNZD 1H?

Daily supply is in control.

Departure wasn't very good, but it is still valid going by our rules.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdalf.png Size: 41 KB
3 traders viewing now