Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 66 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #1,301
  • Aug 22, 2013 3:42am Aug 22, 2013 3:42am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} If my trades have a good benefit, yes I will leave them. Else I will close all my positions. Sunday open gaps can kill you, so it all depends if my trades are up a good amount of pips, else I will close them. The limit orders that I have will be kept, if that's what you meant. I won't touch them. Alfonso
thx Alfonso for the answer. That was idd my question
grtz
  • #1,302
  • Aug 22, 2013 4:10am Aug 22, 2013 4:10am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} So is it that simple? Or is it because we understand what Alfonso is trying to teach us? Congratulations mfinab
I believe you are doing a great job Sebastian, really great job! I am not that active lately with my trading because I am very focused working on a personal project to make my trading semi hands-free.

I also believe it's that SIMPLE. KISS method! I love kisses
Keep It Super Simple or Kiss It Simple Stupid

The rules are logical and common sense, they can be backtested and forward tested, thus duplicated under any circumstances. Watch the charts and you will see it's always the same thing over and over. You understood the rules as well as others on the thread, and you are realizing that it just works.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,303
  • Edited 4:26am Aug 22, 2013 4:12am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting mfinab
{quote} Thanks Sebastien, Alfonso really helped me a lot to not do "touch trades". I set and forget or wait for a good confirmation before entering in trades. Before learning his techniques, I was compulsive and that is very bad on trading. Now that we are doing good, let's help Alfonso to help others, of course if he want us to help others Mfinab
Thanks a lot Mfinab! You are doing a great job. I am very glad that what I have been outlining on this thread is helping you to make better decisions and remove part of that compulsiveness. Patience is key as we all know!

Hopefully others will benefit from you as well.

Congratulations again!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,304
  • Edited 4:26am Aug 22, 2013 4:15am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, I have a GBPUSD 1h short open. There is going to be some high impact news soon for USD (Unemployment claims). Should I exit my position before it happens, or keep it open?
That depends on your rules for news, it's all related to what your trading plan says about news

If you have a nice number of pips, you can do these 3 things:

  1. Lock in most of those pips with a tight SL, not that tight or you will be kicked
  2. Close a nice % of your trade and see what happens
  3. Close the whole trade prior to the news


It all depends on how aggressive or conservative you are with your trading. I would personally tighten my SL a bit and would take the risk, we're bouncing off a nice supply area and $ index rallying.

Hope that helps!
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,305
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:47am Aug 22, 2013 5:47am
Dam, I got stopped out because I had too tight of a SL and I thought the news would have a higher impact, but it was very small, and didn't affect the trend at all.

But It closed with a 30 pip profit, so I'd say it was a win.

And as you say Alfonso, a loss is a lesson.

I will remember this for next time and learn.
  • #1,306
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:56am Aug 22, 2013 5:56am
hello every one

thanks alfonso for sharing your knowledge.

this is a set up that im looking, lets see whats wappen
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 119 KB
passion and discipline
  • #1,307
  • Edited 8:08am Aug 22, 2013 7:37am | Edited 8:08am
Got triggered short on GBPCAD H4 supply at D1 timeframe supply. You can see on the chart attached. As you can see the logical process is always the same over and over and over. You just need to have your higher timeframes well drawn. There will be losses, but that's part of the game, don't you think?

A brand new H4 supply area was formed right at the D1 proximal line and the trade was taken.
I'm also short on EURUSD and last GBPUSD H1 supply.

Let's see what the market has to say about these trades. My S&P e-mini (US500), Russel 2000 (US2000) and NZDUSD H1 shorts from yesterday hit their targets (I was not too greedy witht he fomc news). I had a breakeaven on AUDCAD short which I took like Sebastian at H4 speedbump supply. I moved SL to BE before the FOMC and got a breakeven. All these trades were presented on the thread as they were happening yesterday.

Now let's see what happens with these trades!

Congratulations to all of you who are following or trying to follow the rules in the thread, and are taking trades based on the methodology. No matter if they are winners or losers, a loser is a lesson, and we will always be learning new lessons till we die

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 139 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,308
  • Aug 22, 2013 8:25am Aug 22, 2013 8:25am
CADJPY h1 closed to BE+ comissions. It was closer to D1 demand and h1 uptrend speedbump for long. That's it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad-jpy.png Size: 160 KB
  • #1,309
  • Aug 22, 2013 9:03am Aug 22, 2013 9:03am
Hi Alfonso,

In a trending market we look for fresh or fresh and original S/D areas and the exit target is the opposing S/D areas. Do the exit levels need to be fresh?

Thank you.
Enter Signature
  • #1,310
  • Aug 22, 2013 9:53am Aug 22, 2013 9:53am
Quoting empresswa29
Hi Alfonso, In a trending market we look for fresh or fresh and original S/D areas and the exit target is the opposing S/D areas. Do the exit levels need to be fresh? Thank you.
TP is the next extreme higher TF zone. SL is moved forward as price travels further out, with adding positions to scale in.

he made a post regarding this in the last few pages.
  • #1,311
  • Aug 22, 2013 10:34am Aug 22, 2013 10:34am
eur jen target hitt +340p

rr 8,5:1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh4.png Size: 49 KB
  • #1,312
  • Aug 22, 2013 12:10pm Aug 22, 2013 12:10pm
Hi guys i putted in an other set and forget on USDCAD H4. High in the curve. Hitting a Weekly and H4 SZ. After a very quick rally long. With a fast start and arrival at the SZ level. R/R 1/3
Every comment is welcome.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-22_SWA_USDCAD_H4.png Size: 43 KB
  • #1,313
  • Aug 22, 2013 5:46pm Aug 22, 2013 5:46pm
Quoting sebkor6
eur jen target hitt +340p rr 8,5:1 {image}
Hi Sebastien!

Very nice trade on EJ!!

Congrats!

I'm still in GBPUSD - GBPAUD - CADCHF short here... let see.

Mfinab
  • #1,314
  • Aug 22, 2013 6:05pm Aug 22, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting Stefaan
Hi guys i putted in an other set and forget on USDCAD H4. High in the curve. Hitting a Weekly and H4 SZ. After a very quick rally long. With a fast start and arrival at the SZ level. R/R 1/3 Every comment is welcome. {image}

Hi Stefaan,

Here is my view on USDCAD

As you can see on Weekly chart, price is going for the second time on a Supply zone... (not so good to short from what we see on this chart)
Weekly chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130822-20h53m49s.png Size: 98 KB


On the Daily chart, we could see a bounce from the Fresh supply zone. I'll watch to see a price reaction around 1.0575 and 1.0608. If I see a nice engulf candle, I'll go for a short.
Daily chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130822-20h58m44s.png Size: 63 KB


This is my view, I could be wrong, but I wont set & forget on this one. Not perfect enough for me.

Regards,

Mfinab,
  • #1,315
  • Aug 23, 2013 12:16am Aug 23, 2013 12:16am
Hi
if this trade won't work, i will try to sell on h4 supply upper level (arrow)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud.PNG Size: 98 KB
  • #1,316
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:02am Aug 23, 2013 1:02am
Quoting panoramia
Got triggered short on GBPCAD H4 supply at D1 timeframe supply. You can see on the chart attached. As you can see the logical process is always the same over and over and over. You just need to have your higher timeframes well drawn. There will be losses, but that's part of the game, don't you think? A brand new H4 supply area was formed right at the D1 proximal line and the trade was taken. I'm also short on EURUSD and last GBPUSD H1 supply. Let's see what the market has to say about these trades. My S&P e-mini (US500), Russel 2000 (US2000)...
My short H4 entry on GBPCAD was a loss, that level didn't hold. But not a problem, next one.

It's a Monthly and Weekly used-up area, price will probably penetrate even further. We might have other opportunities later.
Even though I had a loss, I had now NZDUSD and GBPUSD shorts running. I closed GBPUSD H1 short with 15 pips because GDP news is coming now in 25 minutes and it's not at breakeven. Trading is like that, isn't guys? We can't always win. What we have is follow our rules and execute them like a single-neuron robot

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 138 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,317
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:15am Aug 23, 2013 1:15am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} My short H4 entry on GBPCAD was a loss, that level didn't hold. But not a problem, next one. It's a Monthly and Weekly used-up area, price will probably penetrate even further. We might have other opportunities later. Even though I had a loss, I had now NZDUSD and GBPUSD shorts running. I closed GBPUSD H1 short with 15 pips because GDP news is coming now in 25 minutes and it's not at breakeven. Trading is like that, isn't guys? We can't always win. What we have is follow our rules and execute them like a single-neuron robot Alfonso {image}...
Yes, trading is like this. We can't always winn. I had a loss eur cad yesterday, but i will wait for another opportunity.
The only (and i think the biggest) problem is, that as you said, we sholud be like robots. When we see our setup, we should enter the position and wait for what will happen.
The problem is that sometimes we are affraid of loosing and we don't enter the winning trade.
Conclusion: when we see our setup, just enter the position, without thinking to much.
Statistics are on our side.
  • #1,318
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:17am Aug 23, 2013 1:17am
I re-entered on H1 supply NZDUSD after my target was reached, I saw there was a bit more room to non-fresh D1 demand area and tried the top H1 speedbump, it was triggered yesterday sort after my TP was reached. Now I am at BE, we'll see if the trade wants to reach my target.

Price is a bit too low now, and the trade is a bit too aggressive as well since it's almost bouncing off a used-up H4 demand very near a D1 used-up demand area. I was aware of that.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 156 KB


Price could bounced there for a while, and rebound off the H4 drilled supply area to go short again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 139 KB


Price is too low in the curve, but some room still to the used up D1 demand area. Level on top of level, it could still work. I am at breakeven, so whatever happens happens
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 141 KB


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #1,319
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:18am Aug 23, 2013 1:18am
Hi Sebkor6, how did your AUDCAD trades go? This is a screen shot of mine before SL was hit and wondering if I should have done anything different? like TP earlier after second attempt to make LL. The first entry was from H4 supply inside D1 supply so I was looking for 200 pips just above the H4 demand and second on H1 a continuation trade.
cheers Wayne
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcadh4.png Size: 39 KB
  • #1,320
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:19am Aug 23, 2013 1:19am
Quoting sebkor6
{quote} Yes, trading is like this. We can't always winn. I had a loss eur cad yesterday, but i will wait for another opportunity. The only (and i think the biggest) problem is, that as you said, we sholud be like robots. When we see our setup, we should enter the position and wait for what will happen. The problem is that sometimes we are affraid of loosing and we don't enter the winning trade. Conclusion: when we see our setup, just enter the position, without thinking to much. Statistics are on our side.
Exactly Sebastian. Statistics are on our side, we have big ODDS on our side, BUT we need to execute our plan without thinking. If we happen to think for one second, then our emotions will take over and the trade will not be executed, thus having a big impact on the final results. But we need to talk about our losses and learn from them. We mostly learn from losses and problems in life.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
9 traders viewing now