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  • #101
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:44am Aug 5, 2013 11:44am
Quoting fighterdude
{quote} LOL... wow so you like to argue against having a proper RRR and not risking too much per trade and making sure your profits are bigger than your losses???? Seriously man, stop trying to sound so above everyone else... haha... the fall from the top of that pedestal of yours will inevitably hurt. -fighter
I make money consistently and with low risk while most people don't - I think that speaks for itself. No gimmicks, no complicated, obfuscating systems, just good top and bottom picking. I'm not arguing against taking trades with a good risk/reward ratio, but let me explain it a little differently - if you take random trades on a chart and simply enter at a price, exit at -1 x risk ("1R"), and then take profit at whatever multiple you want, you'll find a direct correlation where the farther away you target, the more you lose. Eventually you'll find that you're break-even minus all the fees you paid. Risk/reward ratio is not an edge, but it is a good way to evaluate whether a setup is worth taking once you factor in how reliable your edge by itself is. Over time, R:R ratio by itself is certainly no insurance that your long term profits are bigger than your losses. If you don't believe me you can either try this experiment real time or write a simulation for it.
  • #102
  • Aug 5, 2013 12:04pm Aug 5, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I make money consistently and with low risk while most people don't - I think that speaks for itself. No gimmicks, no complicated, obfuscating systems, just good top and bottom picking. I'm not arguing against taking trades with a good risk/reward ratio, but let me explain it a little differently - if you take random trades on a chart and simply enter at a price, exit at -1 x risk ("1R"), and then take profit at whatever multiple you want, you'll find a direct correlation where the farther away you target, the more you lose. Eventually...
A few months ago you were still trading S&D on demo. And judging by your attidude, you must have really made it big in the meantime.
Lately you come across like a complete a *s.
  • #103
  • Aug 5, 2013 12:12pm Aug 5, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} A few months ago you were still trading S&D on demo. And judging by your attidude, you must have really made it big in the meantime. Lately you come across like a complete a *s.
A few months ago I was certainly not on demo. And yes I've done quite well percent wise and added some real money to my account recently as a result. So far so good.
  • #104
  • Aug 5, 2013 12:14pm Aug 5, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} A few months ago I was certainly not on demo. And yes I've done quite well percent wise and added some real money to my account recently as a result. So far so good.
this one, second paragraph:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post6526122
  • #105
  • Aug 5, 2013 12:19pm Aug 5, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} this one, second paragraph: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post6526122
Yes well I didn't continue the demo and instead opened a new account with Oanda; before I'd been with FXCM and wasn't happy that I couldn't control the risk with nano lots like Oanda could. I've been trading live again since April with a small account and the results were great, added quite a bit more since the beginning of this month. No trades so far, though. Made 4% in April, 5% in May, and 10% net in June. Screwed up the beginning of July by trading NFP but came out with a 4% gain anyway.
  • #106
  • Aug 5, 2013 12:32pm Aug 5, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Yes well I didn't continue the demo and instead opened a new account with Oanda; before I'd been with FXCM and wasn't happy that I couldn't control the risk with nano lots like Oanda could. I've been trading live again since April with a small account and the results were great, added quite a bit more since the beginning of this month. No trades so far, though. Made 4% in April, 5% in May, and 10% net in June. Screwed up the beginning of July by trading NFP but came out with a 4% gain anyway.
OK, these are awesome results. Keep it up
  • #107
  • Aug 5, 2013 12:35pm Aug 5, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} OK, these are awesome results. Keep it up
Thanks, and sorry if I come across as an asshole sometimes, I get in a mood and often like to argue things to a point lol. Hope your trading is going well too.
  • #108
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:19pm Aug 5, 2013 3:19pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote}

the coin thing...
how did it work out for you
  • #109
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:24pm Aug 5, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I see "trending" and "ranging" as largely useless descriptors of past price movement. I sell against them all the time; for example, that crash in June of the market which was "trending" upwards, I sold it at the top because I noticed there was a good chance of many institutional orders there, without getting into much detail (did make a handsome combined 14R profit off of that position and adding to it). The fact that the news announcement was around that time probably wasn't coincidence, banks know how to get their fills. So I mean...
I do not know why I bother .... you said
"Candles and bars aren't indicators but a record of price movement in its raw form"
no that would me a line graph
then you put high, low, open and close all in one indicator - we call it a bar or candle

ok so you have told us what you do not do what have you learn in the last 2 or 3 months
  • #110
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:59pm Aug 5, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} I do not know why I bother .... you said "Candles and bars aren't indicators but a record of price movement in its raw form" no that would me a line graph then you put high, low, open and close all in one indicator - we call it a bar or candle ok so you have told us what you do not do what have you learn in the last 2 or 3 months
No, a line graph is also a record of price in its raw form. Different representations of the same data but not manipulated in any way. If you can tell me what the high, low, open and close of a period was with a MACD indicator though, I'll fold.
  • #111
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:06pm Aug 5, 2013 5:06pm
This thread has evolved into an interesting discussion and I urge everyone to keep calm and show some respect to the thread, and the thread starter please.

Now, the great RR debate. In my opinion it very much depends on the timeframe traded, the system used, and ultimately, the win/loss rate by the individual on that system and timeframe. For instance, I (generally speaking) am happy to enter a trade as long as the R:R is at least 1:1.....assuming all other criteria of mine are met of course. Some trades conclude at 2:1...3:1 or better, but 1:1 as a starting point is fine with me. On the TF's I trade, it's simply not possible to choose only (say) 2:1 trades and ignore the lesser valued trades.

So, assuming that I trade at 1:1 or better, I hope you can appreciate that a more useful statistic (to me) is the win/loss rate. If my win/loss rate is 75% or better, then the MM issue becomes a little less important *provided* that the 1:1 rate is maintained or bettered.

As far as indicators are concerned, this whole 'naked trading is the only way *real traders* trade' type statements go is just arrogant and complete nonsense. I agree with kanzler that everything you see on your chart, including candles, bars etc etc are all indicators of the price action. If these purists who look down their noses at indicator traders are to be true to themselves, they will be reading price numbers off the tickertape, because that is true non indicator trading!

For the rest of us, we all use indicators to some extent and I am happy to use the tools that are provided to me in order that I make money consistently. As it happens, every weekend I, and many others on the Genesis thread trade on the simulator without candles at all! I (we) do this because it reinforces that we are (to a larger degree) mechanical traders and we need to focus in the indicators, not the candles. Every week, my candle-less trading shows a profit. In fact, on my live charts the candle colours are set to nearly blend in with the background because the candles are a distraction and I don't need them to enter a trade, but they are necessary to obtain a good exit because my exits are determined by pivot lines, round numbers, s/r etc etc.

I'm not saying that indicator trading is the best thing in the world and I'm not saying that candle traders have the best thing in the world either. It doesn't matter to anyone else what I have or don't have on my chart. If I make consistent gains using the tools provided and others can do the same with a simple moving average (or less), then who am I to say what is right or wrong?

There are many ways to peel an orange, as long as the orange gets peeled, who cares?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #112
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:22pm Aug 5, 2013 5:22pm
Quoting realjumper
This thread has evolved into an interesting discussion and I urge everyone to keep calm and show some respect to the thread, and the thread starter please. Now, the great RR debate. In my opinion it very much depends on the timeframe traded, the system used, and ultimately, the win/loss rate by the individual on that system and timeframe. For instance, I (generally speaking) am happy to enter a trade as long as the R:R is at least 1:1.....assuming all other criteria of mine are met of course. Some trades conclude at 2:1...3:1 or better, but 1:1...


I like what you said... as for RRR I found when I moved to only taking 3 to 1 my trading improved
reason
1. better trades
2. in line with the big boys they take higher RRR (most not the real short term guys)
3. normally the trades give you more time to study and find... I normally trade on the 4 hour (the hour is as low as I go)
and to get a good RRR it takes a long time to set up on a chart.
4. Normally can set Limit orders


I will say I think the best indicator are candles(bar) and volume everything else helps
I would also say we miss the power of the simple line chart!!!

just my two cents
  • #113
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:26pm Aug 5, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} I like what you said... as for RRR I found when I moved to only taking 3 to 1 my trading improved reason 1. better trades 2. in line with the big boys they take higher RRR (most not the real short term guys) 3. normally the trades give you more time to study and find... I normally trade on the 4 hour (the hour is as low as I go) and to get a good RRR it takes a long time to set up on a chart. 4. Normally can set Limit orders just my two cents

Yup...that's what I mean when I say that it depends on the TF traded. I trade the M5/M15 TF, and as such it is very often impossible to take only 3:1 trades. The TF traded sets the rules to some extent
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #114
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:08pm Aug 5, 2013 9:08pm
Quoting realjumper
In fact, on my live charts the candle colours are set to nearly blend in with the background because the candles are a distraction and I don't need them to enter a trade, but they are necessary to obtain a good exit because my exits are determined by pivot lines, round numbers, s/r etc etc. I'm not saying that indicator trading is the best thing in the world and I'm not saying that candle traders have the best thing in the world either. It doesn't matter to anyone else what I have or don't have on my chart. If I make consistent gains using the tools...
Amen!

Couldn't agree more man!

-fighter
  • #115
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:13pm Aug 5, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Yup...that's what I mean when I say that it depends on the TF traded. I trade the M5/M15 TF, and as such it is very often impossible to take only 3:1 trades. The TF traded sets the rules to some extent
I agree that if you only look at 1-2 time frames which are of similar duration then your RRR is going to be limited to that TF combo.

However I have gotten 10:1 trades fairly often because of multi-time frame analysis across 1hr-4hr-daily-weekly and then using 1 min/5 min price action to enter in the direction of the longer tf analysis. Only down side to trading this way is that you don't have any time to do anything else, as you are glued to the screen just waiting for the 1 min price action to start showing the proper patterns. Very lonely life...

Cheers,

-fighter
  • #116
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:25pm Aug 5, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting fighterdude
{quote} I agree that if you only look at 1-2 time frames which are of similar duration then your RRR is going to be limited to that TF combo. However I have gotten 10:1 trades fairly often because of multi-time frame analysis across 1hr-4hr-daily-weekly and then using 1 min/5 min price action to enter in the direction of the longer tf analysis. Only down side to trading this way is that you don't have any time to do anything else, as you are glued to the screen just waiting for the 1 min price action to start showing sense. Very lonely life... Cheers,...
I do look at the H1, H4, and Daily charts because I need an overall picture of what the market is doing. Mostly I check these higher TF charts only once, or maybe twice a day. My favourite pairs to trade are EA and GJ, and they each have an ATR of 170 and 140 respectively, and trading those pairs, sometimes I too can achieve 10;1 trades, but I still will enter as long as 1;1 exists. It's a bit like crossing a river on the stepping stones......I am just looking to get to the next stone safely, and when I get there, I'll look at the next stone.

I too have to be at the desk for several hours with this type of trading, but this is fine with me. I don't mind sitting at the desk for 8 hours when I get a great salary. I hated sitting at the desk for 8 hours for a crap salary though!! I've tried H1 and H4 trading, but they are not for me.

Every TF and system has it's 'pros and cons'......we just need to be comfortable with what we do....and the most important thing is to take the banks money...anyhow we can!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #117
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:31pm Aug 5, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I do look at the H1, H4, and Daily charts because I need an overall picture of what the market is doing. Mostly I check these higher TF charts only once, or maybe twice a day. My favourite pairs to trade are EA and GJ, and they each have an ATR of 170 and 140 respectively, and trading those pairs, sometimes I too can achieve 10;1 trades, but I still will enter as long as 1;1 exists. It's a bit like crossing a river on the stepping stones......I am just looking to get to the next stone safely, and when I get there, I'll look at the next stone....

Exactly!

Kudos to you mate.

Cheers and happy trades!

-fighter
  • #118
  • Aug 5, 2013 9:32pm Aug 5, 2013 9:32pm
about R:R
ie : r:r 1:1 or 2:1` or 3:1 or 9:1
or 1:2 or 1:2 or 1:3 or 1:9

I did not say which one is better,
but in the long run , each have different odds of winning and odds of losing

just my opinion
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #119
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:00pm Aug 5, 2013 11:00pm
For me the most important question is 'what are my willing to loss to find out if the trade will work'. as many traders must have discovered the only guaranteed outcome in this business is loss, therefore the only thing a trader has control over is his or her risk, that why for me, I dont put too much value on my entry method, hence I use a very simple method, because the most important thing is risk management.
  • #120
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:07pm Aug 5, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting onojiwizard
the only guaranteed outcome in this business is loss
Really?...can you explain that a little bit?



Quoting onojiwizard
I dont put too much value on my entry method,.
You don't?....you'll have to explain that a little more too because unless I am missing something, if you practice this second statement, then the first statement will probably be true!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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