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  • #7,801
  • Jul 19, 2013 7:54am Jul 19, 2013 7:54am
Current levels seem like pretty strong resistance though as well.. I'm not quite ready to close my shorts personally.
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #7,802
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:43am Jul 19, 2013 8:43am
Quoting str33t
Current levels seem like pretty strong resistance though as well.. I'm not quite ready to close my shorts personally.
Just your shirt?

EDIT: oops... thought that said "lose my shorts..."
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  • #7,803
  • Jul 19, 2013 8:49am Jul 19, 2013 8:49am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Just your shirt? EDIT: oops... thought that said "lose my shorts..."
Haha, I've gotta hold onto those I might not be able to afford any more for a while if this doesn't turn back down.. XD
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #7,804
  • Jul 19, 2013 9:55am Jul 19, 2013 9:55am
Quoting Pumpndump
{quote} If you needed to know why that area was so important then study 4hr graph. 153.1 was the fib obviously. It comes out more accurate on a line graph if that helps
Could you please show a picture of this? I 100% agree with your reasoning, but I can't seem to find this fib level. What are you using as the high/low prices? On 4H? I believe EatPips mentioned 153.1 was key as well... and I just want to be able to see it with my own eyes. Thanks.
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  • #7,805
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:07am Jul 19, 2013 10:07am
The thing that gives it away right now is the daily candle. It's opened today above the daily 50 sma for the first time and by now it should have been rejected and dropped below 152 if it was bearish - unless that happens in the next 4 or 5 hours. It looked indecisive some hours ago, but is holding up well.

Next resistance is at around 154.3 to 154.6 (76 fib area).
  • #7,806
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:08am Jul 19, 2013 10:08am
Hi guys, I don't follow this pair much...

But from the weekly (and various indicators) it looks to me like it might start to go down a few hundred pips from here for perhaps the next few weeks/months, maybe even a year or longer.

Would love to hear what you guys think, especially the more experienced gbp/jpy traders...
  • #7,807
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:35am Jul 19, 2013 10:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting JollyBean
Hi guys, I don't follow this pair much... But from the weekly (and various indicators) it looks to me like it might start to go down a few hundred pips from here for perhaps the next few weeks/months, maybe even a year or longer. Would love to hear what you guys think, especially the more experienced gbp/jpy traders...
interested to know why you think that,my bias is total opposite,I believe it will reach 156 within 2/3 weeks
  • #7,808
  • Jul 19, 2013 11:07am Jul 19, 2013 11:07am
On Sunday...Japan has elections and Abe will be re-elected....but the ensuing uptrend in usd/jpy will be affected by the jcb market in Japan...the Nikkea is already upward bound after a tanking yesterday.....yep, he'll be elected ~~everybody loves Abe~enomics ( 2% ) inflation plan.
  • #7,809
  • Jul 19, 2013 12:24pm Jul 19, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
On Sunday...Japan has elections and Abe will be re-elected....but the ensuing uptrend in usd/jpy will be affected by the jcb market in Japan...the Nikkea is already upward bound after a tanking yesterday.....yep, he'll be elected ~~everybody loves Abe~enomics ( 2% ) inflation plan.
Longer term trend trader here. Do you think we will see UJ 107-110 by year end and 120 by next? Given Abe takes the election by a land slide? Geppy, your insight is always appreciated as well.
  • #7,810
  • Jul 19, 2013 12:33pm Jul 19, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting JollyBean
Hi guys, I don't follow this pair much... But from the weekly (and various indicators) it looks to me like it might start to go down a few hundred pips from here for perhaps the next few weeks/months, maybe even a year or longer. Would love to hear what you guys think, especially the more experienced gbp/jpy traders...
I don't know why you would think this as Japan has openly stated that they are intending to fight deflation through QE and other various unprecedented measures. Given Abe takes the election, we should see a nice uptrend resume in the coming weeks/months. My paranoia resides in the fact that the big boys will give us a crazy squeeze prior to the big spike up to UJ 110-120. I am looking forward to the yen cross pairs hitting these key figures and watching these potential upcoming corrections take place. I say UJ 105 is your next best bet to be short and gain mad pips on the counter trend...
  • #7,811
  • Jul 19, 2013 12:58pm Jul 19, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting 200Pips
{quote} Longer term trend trader here. Do you think we will see UJ 107-110 by year end and 120 by next? Given Abe takes the election by a land slide? Geppy, your insight is always appreciated as well.
In the FX world I'm considered a long-term trader. I hold trades anywhere from a few hours to days... sometimes even a week or more. I look for the general trend and trade in that direction. While I may buck the trend in the short-term, I always know when I'm doing so and have the overall trend in mind.

What you're talking about is investing, not trading. Those time horizons aren't something I try to predict or pretend to know. Especially in today's global, economic climate, there are just too many variables and shifts happening for me to look that far out.

Maybe someone else can provide you with a better answer, but I'm sure as an investment it'd be a good one to buy and hold USD/JPY.

P.S. This is the GBP/JPY thread...
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  • #7,812
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:38pm Jul 19, 2013 2:38pm
Geppy is going to test 157 level soon. Who is with me?

http://charts.mql5.com/2/77/gbpjpy-h...al-markets.png
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #7,813
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:23pm Jul 19, 2013 3:23pm
August 23.....that's the day I have ~ but my buddy Ian has August 14....for the CYCLE LOW...long term cycle. anyone can see it on a 8H chart....there's also the 48 week and the 96 week CYCLEs...
..

The thing is....notice all the other~~~~we're chart hacking now...huh!~~~notice how the other cycle lows all bowl into the low......not a spike.....
...
I mentioned this low back on page 280 something or so, I don't know, it was six weeks out then, three weeks out, now, would be a good interpolation. I'll go find that date.
there's the answer.....the mother of all lows is possible! Then notice the bowl action coming up out of the hole where the cycle low is. Not really spikey. Should someone email Ian in Singapore?
  • #7,814
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:55pm Jul 19, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} In the FX world I'm considered a long-term trader. I hold trades anywhere from a few hours to days... sometimes even a week or more. I look for the general trend and trade in that direction. While I may buck the trend in the short-term, I always know when I'm doing so and have the overall trend in mind. What you're talking about is investing, not trading. Those time horizons aren't something I try to predict or pretend to know. Especially in today's global, economic climate, there are just too many variables and shifts happening for me to...

Geppy, thank you for getting back and providing this great thread. I appreciate your insight. And my apologies for posting a UJ related question in the GJ forum. You seem to call the markets really well and I know you have great insight is why I asked.

I figure if UJ hits these numbers ie120 the Geppy will follow suit on the up trend. I have been long UJ for over a year now in order to take on a more of a conservative trade while tracking the overall trend of the Yen. The fundamentals are still the same and BOJ will continue to strive to weaken their currency (granted Abe takes the election). I am looking to make the leap and start trading the GBP/JPY if there are clear signals the uptrend will continue.

My goal is to do what you are saying and actually trade while "investing" longer term in the trend. It certainly helps gaining different perspectives from qualified members here on the site. Your thread and insight have been a huge help in many different ways. Thanks again.
  • #7,815
  • Jul 20, 2013 6:41am Jul 20, 2013 6:41am
my view long term GJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,816
  • Jul 20, 2013 9:15am Jul 20, 2013 9:15am
Quoting msniper
my view long term GJ {image}
Thank you, very nice detailed chart. This is what I have been banking on (UJ¥120 and GJ¥160-170). I hope I am with you on the nasty retracement once we reach the targets in the snow capped mountain tops. It is just hard for me psychologically to go against such a strong trend and short the market. These so called squeezes are becoming more and more prevalent as we inch higher and I have missed out on so many opportunities though to sell in the short term.
  • #7,817
  • Edited 10:33am Jul 20, 2013 10:13am | Edited 10:33am
Hey guys,

Very interesting topic we got going on here. I'm trying to catch up on it and I'll post my thoughts later. There is no doubt GBP/JPY and, imo, all yen crosses are going higher in the long-run, and that would apply to long-term trading and investing. I have tried everything from investing (I was a programmer at Mercer Investment Consulting for about three years, and then resigned to pursue my own dreams, entreprenurial-wise and trading) also invested real money with real portfolios, longer term trading, medium-term (swing) trading, short-term trading and ultra-short-term trading (daytrading) which I currently do (in more than just FX). I've traded FX the longest, but have also traded US stocks/ETFs (I currently work at a prop firm), stock options which I'm dying to get back into, and would like to learn binary options and futures as well. Daytrading is BY FAR the most difficult, but it can be the most rewarding if you get it right and I sure am determined at that. But my plan is to master FX first, and by FX I specifically mean the GBP/JPY. I figure if you know that the market is going to pull back 10 or 20 pips, then why should you willingly put yourself through that pain?

I believe that all markets in just about every asset class can be predicted using a good technical foundation (ie: my system) and an understanding of charts and price action. The price action becomes even more important in the shorter time frames... so yes, of course it is more difficult to predict what will happen in a year from now rather than tomorrow, but I believe it can still be done with a reasonable sense of accuracy. I'm actually quite good at predicting these things, I'm just a shitty trader LOL

Stay tuned for my thoughts later. I'll share my short-term, medium-term, and long-term views on GBP/JPY since I do not trade any other pairs. Keep in mind though, I am generally a very short-term trader. What I consider long-term might only be a scalp for the master Geppy!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,818
  • Jul 20, 2013 1:59pm Jul 20, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting msniper
my view long term GJ {image}
That long term is not weeks, it's months away.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #7,819
  • Jul 20, 2013 2:04pm Jul 20, 2013 2:04pm
For coming week I'm staying out.
It's too high to go long and no way I'm gonna short here.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #7,820
  • Jul 20, 2013 3:50pm Jul 20, 2013 3:50pm
Quoting msniper
my view long term GJ {image}

.
Oh man, thank you .....if you'll keep posting symmetry BC waves, that'd be worth cash money to me. All of us. star and flag...
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