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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #7,701
  • Jul 15, 2013 7:41pm Jul 15, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting smash1820
Understood... I believe that there was, is, or has to be a perfectly logical (technical) explanation for these moves as well. Wave theory can certainly account for a part of it, but I've always seen the waves as a simple function of both 1) measured moves and 2) time. It's much easier to account for that way. I've also viewed wave theory as more of an art than a science, but please do correct me if I'm wrong.
Ha, it's a bit of art, a bit of science (considered the inherent Fibonacci relationships, mathematics and an element of human psychology), a bit of hocus pocus and a bit of luck. Wrap 'em all together and you have something that can, if used properly, offer possible directions and targets. It's downfall is how it's used - most people will use it to determine a direction, but give little or no consideration as to the other possible outcomes it can throw up - and end up getting it 100% wrong. And that's why it is but a tool in trading, along with everything else you use, such as the "feel" of price action, S&R, fibs, channels and trend lines, other indicators, historical comparisons and sheer good luck and good management. It is NO holy grail. But it has its uses.
  • #7,702
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:00pm Jul 15, 2013 8:00pm
Hah!!! I love how you just called wave theory "a bit of hocus pocus"

PS: I am not dismissing it as a useful tool, I just seriously can't stop laughing.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,703
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:09pm Jul 15, 2013 8:09pm
Bonds have reversed...JPY pairs to the downside in that case....Tokyo is selling the dollar...the others will follow probably
  • #7,704
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:15pm Jul 15, 2013 8:15pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Bonds have reversed...JPY pairs to the downside in that case....Tokyo is selling the dollar...the others will follow probably
Ok, so that means... long GBP/USD... short USD/JPY... which gets us... nowhere?!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,705
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:23pm Jul 15, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} And for the benefit of Gbp/jpy who has a knowledge of waves, I err on the side of caution because it's just possible that what looks like a bearish triangle could, in fact have been a wave 1 to 153, wave 2 to 148.75 and we are just completing (or have completed) subwave 1 of wave 3 (the entire crap move up from 148.75 appears (to me) to have completed 5 waves in an abcde arrangement). With the next fallback to maybe just at or above 148.75 before wave 3 starts to maybe around 154/155.
...
Mpt....your posts have such a ring of truth in them...a kind of basic good info deal....I'll be study'n what you posted there...
  • #7,706
  • Edited 8:41pm Jul 15, 2013 8:30pm | Edited 8:41pm
Here's my buddy....Ian Copsey....Harmonic Elliott Wave.blogspot.com......He has a spreadsheet for free....or it was, I have several files of it.

..

back when he wrote a book. An elliott wave author along with Robert P. Balan
..


ETA sell em.... the bond spreads set a record today...Everyone will probably start the risk-off rally....selling the dollar. I see geppy's 4 touch trendline.....which is powerful...but the lack of news will make spreads important. they forecast well in forex. U.S.dollar especially
  • #7,707
  • Jul 15, 2013 9:02pm Jul 15, 2013 9:02pm
Hi all here.. I am new Here in this thread and this is my 1st Post here. Like to share my views with you all here.. as JYP is my favorite currency I would like to join with your community... So I will post my view on GPB/JPY from now.
I Love Green Pips.
  • #7,708
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:34am Jul 16, 2013 1:34am
Hey dudes

Still holding my small risk short from last week looking to break below this range hopefully creating a new lower lower. Will let it pull back and continue south if PA shows the strength.

Just going to let it play out however it wants to. I don't want to personally get involved in trading this until we break through one way or another, however as I am favoring the downtrend I am keeping my small short in.
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,709
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:48am Jul 16, 2013 1:48am
Sitting at support right now.
  • #7,710
  • Jul 16, 2013 1:56am Jul 16, 2013 1:56am
Quoting Mpt
Sitting at support right now.
It has been using the 22 ema on the weekly - another way to look at the situation.
  • #7,711
  • Jul 16, 2013 2:02am Jul 16, 2013 2:02am
if this support does not break???? i would not be surprised to see 151 ~151.2 again
  • #7,712
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:52am Jul 16, 2013 10:52am
Looks like another full day of being caught in the overall range.

Hopefully tomorrow dislodges us.

Until then...
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  • #7,713
  • Jul 16, 2013 5:15pm Jul 16, 2013 5:15pm
Yeah, this range is really starting to get on my nerves. I've noticed that all trendlines seem to be getting tested, so that's painting a pretty bearish picture imo. It looks to me like this trendline on the Weekly TF will get broken.

It's just a question of... when?

I am still beating myself up for not getting short at 151.00 last night.... grrrr
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  • #7,714
  • Jul 16, 2013 5:23pm Jul 16, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting smash1820
Yeah, this range is really starting to get on my nerves. I've noticed that all trendlines seem to be getting tested, so that's painting a pretty bearish picture imo. It looks to me like this trendline on the Weekly TF will get broken. It's just a question of... when? I am still beating myself up for not getting short at 151.00 last night.... grrrr {image}
The yen crosses tend to drop radically in August. We might need to be patient. It's possible a top is in place on both the usd jpy and the gbp jpy, but it's only mid-way through this month.

http://www.fxtsp.com/trading-strateg...-patterns.html
  • #7,715
  • Edited 8:37pm Jul 16, 2013 8:20pm | Edited 8:37pm
In my opinion (and from a little analysis) the price point around 150.5~6 could be significant today.

If that level can be reached and held, there is scope for a reasonable bullish move, maybe past 151.2 and possibly up to about either 152 or 153. If it isn't held today and likewise tomorrow at about 150.8, price may retreat first, back to about 149.2 or the double bottom. Then I would expect it to reach 153 or so about three or four days after that.

Price action over the few hours is kind of important to map out its possible path.

And yes, it's driving everyone crazy - and that's the polite answer.
  • #7,716
  • Jul 16, 2013 9:01pm Jul 16, 2013 9:01pm
Quoting Mpt
In my opinion (and from a little analysis) the price point around 150.5~6 could be significant today. If that level can be reached and held, there is scope for a reasonable bullish move, maybe past 151.2 and possibly up to about either 152 or 153. If it isn't held today and likewise tomorrow at about 150.8, price may retreat first, back to about 149.2 or the double bottom. Then I would expect it to reach 153 or so about three or four days after that. Price action over the few hours is kind of important to map out its possible path. And yes, it's...
.
eminently logical captain....i'm short for 149.40....then buy....and matching up the spikes to Bernanke's release ...530am central us time....then his answers to congress at 7 am...
...
the bond spread wants dollar up....stocks down, although later they go to the moon( as per futures )so, the market will go whippin' in the early morning....twice...I guess set an order and take a walk about, huh!
  • #7,717
  • Jul 16, 2013 10:09pm Jul 16, 2013 10:09pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} . eminently logical captain....i'm short for 149.40....then buy....and matching up the spikes to Bernanke's release ...530am central us time....then his answers to congress at 7 am... ... the bond spread wants dollar up....stocks down, although later they go to the moon( as per futures )so, the market will go whippin' in the early morning....twice...I guess set an order and take a walk about, huh!
And matching the spikes, as you put it could take it to 152 first in what may be nothing to do with a bearish triangle but a bullish setup...after back to about 149
  • #7,718
  • Jul 17, 2013 12:25am Jul 17, 2013 12:25am
I think it should be smooth sailing from here.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,719
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:43am Jul 17, 2013 1:43am
Quoting smash1820
I think it should be smooth sailing from here.
I have a vague idea that you might be right
  • #7,720
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:51am Jul 17, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I have a vague idea that you might be right
I also have a vague idea that the top may be in ... but we'll wait and see
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