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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #34,461
  • Jun 6, 2013 11:22am Jun 6, 2013 11:22am
Quoting nueldar
I'm going to open long at 95.0 to 102....

LOL that was a good one.
Follow me on twitter @whimtradr
  • #34,462
  • Jun 6, 2013 11:26am Jun 6, 2013 11:26am
Quoting Whimtradr
{quote} LOL that was a good one.
i don't know what must happen and when for that, but my technical tell me this scenario











Sorry for my English
  • #34,463
  • Jun 6, 2013 12:21pm Jun 6, 2013 12:21pm
as .uj settles in around 97, you can see what looks like a developing 4th wave... that is, if the fall from ~98.64 to ~95.88 is a long 3rd. only problem is getting the count on subdivision of the 3rd to come out right. but, standing back, it looks like this could end up around 95.50 sometime tomorrow if a 5th wave unfolds.

(...from the resident AWEG, so take with a grain of salt )
  • #34,464
  • Jun 6, 2013 12:32pm Jun 6, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting 1candlepower
as .uj settles in around 97, you can see what looks like a developing 4th wave... that is, if the fall from ~98.64 to ~95.88 is a long 3rd. only problem is getting the count on subdivision of the 3rd to come out right. but, standing back, it looks like this could end up around 95.50 sometime tomorrow if a 5th wave unfolds. (...from the resident AWEG, so take with a grain of salt )
yep.
and now i see the ending of big 5th wave, that was began at 102.4 and still going on. maybe i'm wrong
  • #34,465
  • Jun 6, 2013 12:40pm Jun 6, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting nueldar
{quote} yep. and now i see the ending of big 5th wave, that was began at 102.4 and still going on. maybe i'm wrong
oh yeah... falling impulse from ~103.70 --- doubled 1st wave, 3rd subdivided three times, and now the 5th, (the longest) with the current fall in progress, a w5 of the larger 5th. doesn't seem to break any rules... interesting
  • #34,466
  • Jun 6, 2013 12:44pm Jun 6, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} oh yeah... falling impulse from ~103.70 --- doubled 1st wave, 3rd subdivided three times, and now the 5th, (the longest) with the current fall in progress, a w5 of the larger 5th. doesn't seem to break any rules... interesting
Inititally i thought that 5th wave ended at 99. ...but i was wrong
So, now i wait a death of big downtrend
  • #34,467
  • Jun 6, 2013 12:58pm Jun 6, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} 99.425 entered long !

hows your "cascade" doing?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,468
  • Jun 6, 2013 2:59pm Jun 6, 2013 2:59pm
its time to buy some yen pairs. i bought 2 from all positions and closed 1 from each and another positions are running..
sorry i am late was busy.


here is where i posted my analysis..
and another pic from where i took my profit of half positions.

i still see 100 USDJPY at end of the month..
as i said there i am huge fan of the oldest indicator of Forex MACD and that is not supporting this down move.
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I respect blind people, they judge on personality and not by looks.
  • #34,469
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:25pm Jun 6, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting fundamental
its time to buy some yen pairs. i bought 2 from all positions and closed 1 from each and another positions are running.. sorry i am late was busy. here is where i posted my analysis.. and another pic from where i took my profit of half positions. i still see 100 USDJPY at end of the month.. as i said there i am huge fan of the oldest indicator of Forex MACD and that is not supporting this down move. {image} {image}

... falling knives...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,470
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:35pm Jun 6, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting fundamental
as i said there i am huge fan of the oldest indicator of Forex MACD and that is not supporting this down move. {image} {image}
It seems that this version supports the down move quite well

All the best
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When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #34,471
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:41pm Jun 6, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} It seems that this version supports the down move quite well All the best {image}

todays PA stopped dead in its tracks at the 261.8% extension of the swing from c103.3 high to c100.5...

as i said yesterday, this pair was standing at the edge of an abyss...

if the break below 97 holds... and I agree with you on the momentum... it should...downside TP as follows:

1- c95.5
2- c92.5
3- 88

this could be a major shift in trend...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,472
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:43pm Jun 6, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} todays PA stopped dead in its tracks at the 261.8% extension of the swing from c103.3 high to c100.5... as i said yesterday, this pair was standing at the edge of an abyss... if the break below 97 holds... and I agree with you on the momentum... it should...downside TP as follows: 1- c95.5 2- c92.5 3- 88 this could be a major shift in trend...
question is: is anyone here patient enough to play this trade with me?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,473
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:53pm Jun 6, 2013 3:53pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} todays PA stopped dead in its tracks at the 261.8% extension of the swing from c103.3 high to c100.5... as i said yesterday, this pair was standing at the edge of an abyss... if the break below 97 holds... and I agree with you on the momentum... it should...downside TP as follows: 1- c95.5 2- c92.5 3- 88 this could be a major shift in trend...
Could see a retrace to 97.80 - 98.20 area???
Then, tomorrows NFP may tell more (or may mean nothing).
I'll sit around for awhile and do nothing

All the best

When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #34,474
  • Jun 6, 2013 4:02pm Jun 6, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Could see a retrace to 97.80 - 98.20 area??? Then, tomorrows NFP may tell more (or may mean nothing). I'll sit around for awhile and do nothing All the best
Nothing moves up or down in a straight line... If i had any more risk limits for this pair (i dont, i have been short for a while), i would short any bounce
nfp should be a non event, todays pa speaks volumes
look at us equity mkts, sp still holding above 1600... Fx mkts are pricing in a bad number...
Time will tell...
Best of luck out there!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,475
  • Jun 6, 2013 4:46pm Jun 6, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} question is: is anyone here patient enough to play this trade with me?
hi there, im still holding sell at 102.388, any suggestion?
  • #34,476
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:02pm Jun 6, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting Lanjimsdk
{quote} hi there, im still holding sell at 102.388, any suggestion?
No suggestions but just a peek at daily reveals long 'forgotten?' lines
and what almost seems like the importance of MA's (though they bear no significance?)

At this point, it seems that resistance might be @ 98.76..........
and the downside targets are easy enough to see ??

All the best
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When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #34,477
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:15pm Jun 6, 2013 5:15pm
My traders gut tells me that we have seen the lows today for this pair for some time to come. My gut is certainly nothing to go on, but it has served me well over the years. Regardless I am longing at these levels 97.xx and will be pyramiding up to 105.xx, I just don't see it going down that much more though I could be completely wrong. I don't think NFP will be a huge factor unless the number is very positive, seems a negative number has already been priced in. My two cents.
  • #34,478
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:41pm Jun 6, 2013 5:41pm
I think this sell off was a so called shaking the weak hands off the ride. Maybe we haven't seen the bottom yet, but I think it's near. Even 94 won't negate this strong bull trend. After the correction there might be an attack at the new highs of the year. And one remainder: from 1995-1998 it rose 6700 pips ! I don't claim that this will repeat again but running to 110 for example is not a big deal after all.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #34,479
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:43pm Jun 6, 2013 5:43pm
I think it may has some bullishness left. I haven't traded yen in a few weeks, but look how the price action is. It will be contained within a box - for the most part - sell off to the lower quarter and than blast through to the next level.

In all reality, the Nikkei before the selloff was up 40% YTD. If nobody seen this coming at some point than IDK
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #34,480
  • Jun 6, 2013 6:28pm Jun 6, 2013 6:28pm
seeing rejection at the major level of 96.7, if 1H and 4H prove rejection this may be a long
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