Trade what you see, not what you think!
B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee
- #5,743
- Jun 6, 2013 8:12am Jun 6, 2013 8:12am
{quote} that demand was takin out .trapped traders are below 98.420 you should check there
It wasn't the freshest of levels but the potential payoff was very attractive.
Moving on to the next trade
Trade what you see, not what you think!
- #5,745
- Jun 6, 2013 10:26am Jun 6, 2013 10:26am
Supply zone on E/USD 4hr?? Risk; 25 pips, potential profit ??? {image}
Hey OMGtrader, I was about to do that exact E/USD trade, but it was not until i zoomed out on the larger time frame that i saw how many times price has been there. On the chart below you can see that price has already been at the supply level a previous 3 times. Im pretty sure what happen was all those supply (short) orders were eventually consumed at that is why price strongly broke through that level, Or LEVELS. What do you think?
- #5,747
- Jun 6, 2013 10:39am Jun 6, 2013 10:39am
{quote} Hey OMGtrader, I was about to do that exact E/USD trade, but it was not until i zoomed out on the larger time frame that i saw how many times price has been there. On the chart below you can see that price has already been at the supply level a previous 3 times. Im pretty sure what happen was all those supply (short) orders were eventually consumed at that is why price strongly broke through that level, Or LEVELS. What do you think?
Yes i would agree on the pricing being consumed but if we look at all the supply/demand levels on larger time frames almost all of them have been consumed in some way in the past. We just need to accept the fact that it doesn't always work out as we think and move on with the next trade.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
- #5,753
- Jun 7, 2013 12:58am Jun 7, 2013 12:58am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #5,754
- Jun 7, 2013 1:16am Jun 7, 2013 1:16am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Planning a short trade on AUDJPY.
Monthly speedbump demand has been absorbed. Lots of room to lower MN demand at 82.72 where there will probably be a bounce like on most MN SD areas.
Weekly chart: This is the previous demand level on the WK chart, it's a speedbump (continuation pattern). In fact there are two levels. We should be looking for longs there.
Daily chart: All D1 demand areas have been absorbed, and D1 supply areas respected, forming new D1 supply on the way down. There are 2 authentic fresh zones down below, the first one at 87.94 is within the previous WK demand speedbump (you can see the - - - green trendlines automatically painted with my rectangle extender indicator)
H4 chart: this, together with the H1 chart are my entry timeframes 99% of the time.
- I had a short order planned at 96.46 as you can see but price never made it, it is a level within a D1 supply zone, you can see the automatic trendlines painted by my recangle extender indicator. Then price has keep on dropping with no entris on the H4 chart, but there was one entry on the green level if drilled down to H1, however I was not there so I couldn't plan it.
- The lower H4 supply level is the one I am now focused on, all supply levels are being respected, whereas demand levels are being violatated consistently. Why should I trade the green level? So will plan a short within that H4 area. It's 67 pips wide, too much risk, so I need to drill it down to the H1 chart.
- The lower H4 demand area can be a nice long opportunity, it's a fresh H4 demand level right at the WK demand area, as you can see with the - - - - trendlines painted automatically by the rectangle extender indicator.
H1 chart:
- The H4 timeframe is just too wide, too much risk. 67 pips + spread + some wiggle room above (normally 5-7 pips on H4 charts), so I will try and see if I can find a good H1 supply area to lean on on that wide H4 supply zone
- You can see there is a nice H1 supply level right at the distal area of H4 supply demand (which you can see with .... trendlines painted automatically by the rectangle extender).
- There is a lower area that could trigger the short (purple), but I want to focus on the top one. When there is a level on top of level, I will focus on the upper one, it's higher odds, when the lower supply is absorbed, demand will be "exhausted". If I lean on the lower one, price could easily break it, reach the upper supply zone and have a loss, so I focus on the top one.
This is more or less the way I always trade. Hope it makes sense to you.
Alfonso
Monthly speedbump demand has been absorbed. Lots of room to lower MN demand at 82.72 where there will probably be a bounce like on most MN SD areas.
Weekly chart: This is the previous demand level on the WK chart, it's a speedbump (continuation pattern). In fact there are two levels. We should be looking for longs there.
Daily chart: All D1 demand areas have been absorbed, and D1 supply areas respected, forming new D1 supply on the way down. There are 2 authentic fresh zones down below, the first one at 87.94 is within the previous WK demand speedbump (you can see the - - - green trendlines automatically painted with my rectangle extender indicator)
H4 chart: this, together with the H1 chart are my entry timeframes 99% of the time.
- I had a short order planned at 96.46 as you can see but price never made it, it is a level within a D1 supply zone, you can see the automatic trendlines painted by my recangle extender indicator. Then price has keep on dropping with no entris on the H4 chart, but there was one entry on the green level if drilled down to H1, however I was not there so I couldn't plan it.
- The lower H4 supply level is the one I am now focused on, all supply levels are being respected, whereas demand levels are being violatated consistently. Why should I trade the green level? So will plan a short within that H4 area. It's 67 pips wide, too much risk, so I need to drill it down to the H1 chart.
- The lower H4 demand area can be a nice long opportunity, it's a fresh H4 demand level right at the WK demand area, as you can see with the - - - - trendlines painted automatically by the rectangle extender indicator.
H1 chart:
- The H4 timeframe is just too wide, too much risk. 67 pips + spread + some wiggle room above (normally 5-7 pips on H4 charts), so I will try and see if I can find a good H1 supply area to lean on on that wide H4 supply zone
- You can see there is a nice H1 supply level right at the distal area of H4 supply demand (which you can see with .... trendlines painted automatically by the rectangle extender).
- There is a lower area that could trigger the short (purple), but I want to focus on the top one. When there is a level on top of level, I will focus on the upper one, it's higher odds, when the lower supply is absorbed, demand will be "exhausted". If I lean on the lower one, price could easily break it, reach the upper supply zone and have a loss, so I focus on the top one.
This is more or less the way I always trade. Hope it makes sense to you.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #5,758
- Jun 12, 2013 3:53pm Jun 12, 2013 3:53pm
- Joined Mar 2004 | Status: Senior Member | 1,634 Posts
- #5,759
- Jun 12, 2013 3:58pm Jun 12, 2013 3:58pm
- Joined Mar 2004 | Status: Senior Member | 1,634 Posts
- #5,760
- Jun 12, 2013 5:16pm Jun 12, 2013 5:16pm
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Probabilities, Not Absolutes | 1,246 Posts
Just wondering if anyone caught Sam Seiden's latest Webinar on Forex Street ? It is archived there. Here is why I am asking. Did you hear him say?: If you trade the 3 or 2 mn chart and price is returning to a good, fresh level : 1. It doesn't matter what the larger TF trend is. 2. Don't worry about 1/3 risk/return. Go ahead with a 1 to 2 or even 1 to 1.5 RR. Because if the level is fresh and other Odds Enhancers are in play, ie. fast move away, fast return to the level for instance, his confidence in the method is very high. He will take the trade....
Hey Lou,
Having not seen this particular video.. What I can say is that I would agree with Sam ( for the most part ) in this area. I tend to look at the Pattern within the Pattern to help determine direction. ( see my previous posts on this thread ). What I have learned along the way ( most important ) when trading 1-5min that one's TP must be smaller :: Agreeing with the 1:1, 1.5:1 or maybe ??? a 2:1..maybe..? SL are always smaller .. but the beauty is we can increase our position size ( I trade a 2 lot most of the time) moving to 4 lots when scalping.
Getting back to direction:: The Pattern w/in a Pattern really helps me with direction.. So I guess you could say I do look at the larger TF where Sam say it does not matter.. A comfort level ..
TSD