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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #31,521
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:33pm Jun 3, 2013 9:33pm
A neutral meeting, leaning a little to the positive.
  • #31,522
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:37pm Jun 3, 2013 9:37pm
"At today's meeting the Board judged that the easier financial conditions now in place will contribute to a strengthening of growth over time, consistent with achieving the inflation target. It decided that the stance of monetary policy remained appropriate for the time being. The Board also judged that the inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand." - RBA

Very neutral
  • #31,523
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:39pm Jun 3, 2013 9:39pm
Glad I got out, this is a joke.
  • #31,524
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:40pm Jun 3, 2013 9:40pm
Intresting wording now "may" is now the word used in regards to monetary easing instead of "continues to retain the right"
  • #31,525
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:42pm Jun 3, 2013 9:42pm
"The Board also judged that the inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand."

Let's not piss in my pocket and tell me it's raining. Clearly with the string of Aussie data, easing may be needed.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,526
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:50pm Jun 3, 2013 9:50pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Clearly with the string of Aussie data, easing may be needed.
Australia imports most of its retail goods plus fuel is priced in USD so the recent fall in the AUD will result in inflation
which means higher interest rates not lower
Have a nice day
  • #31,527
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:57pm Jun 3, 2013 9:57pm
Bull's question....after being hypnotized by alien....
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #31,528
  • Edited 10:49pm Jun 3, 2013 10:37pm | Edited 10:49pm
Quoting billv
{quote} Australia imports most of its retail goods plus fuel is priced in USD so the recent fall in the AUD will result in inflation which means higher interest rates not lower

So IMO there will be no further rate cuts and I forgot to mention that the biggest mover of the economy is housing construction
and this is an area which is going to benefit from the very low interest rates.
Now I don't know if the current interest rate is sufficient to make the AUD popular for investors
but I'm guessing that it is sufficient to prevent further AUD decline.

Even if the crappy Eurozone and US bonds seem attractive, investors always diversify and Australia is a huge gold mine
so investors and central banks will be holding some AUD's for security if not for yield.
Have a nice day
  • #31,529
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:49pm Jun 3, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting billv
{quote} So IMO there will be no further rate cuts and I forgot to mention that the biggest mover of the economy is housing construction and this is an area which is going to benefit from the very low interest rates. Now I don't know if the current interest rate is sufficient to make the AUD popular for investors but I'm guessing that it is sufficient to prevent further AUD decline. Even if the crappy Eurozone and US bonds seems attractive, investors always diversify and Australia is a huge gold mine so they will be holding some AUD's for security...
You are from Australia?
your buying power become less?
What your view for coming election?
AUD further drop?
  • #31,530
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:03pm Jun 3, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting livingston12
{quote} You are from Australia? your buying power become less? What your view for coming election? AUD further drop?

Yes I'm from Australia

Regarding buying power, a 10% drop in the value of the AUD isn't going to hurt
because the price of goods has been coming down in previous years but it isn't good for importers
who now have to pay 10% more for the goods they ordered last month and who now will have to pass on those increases to the consumers.

Petrol prices at the pump will go up but they have been very low for a long time
and we are used to petrol price fluctuations.

Our biggest expense is our home mortgage and in Australia ( unlike the US) mortgages are on a variable interest rate
so the reduction in interest rates boosts our buying power.
I was actually tempted by the low rates and have a personal opinion on this being the bottom of the cycle so I fixed half of my mortgage.

Regarding the elections, the current government is likely to lose and the Liberals who will win are better at managing the economy,
business confidence will be boosted so a Liberal win will be AUD positive.
Have a nice day
  • #31,531
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:21pm Jun 3, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting billv
{quote} Yes I'm from Australia Regarding buying power, a 10% drop in the value of the AUD isn't going to hurt because the price of goods has been coming down in previous years but it isn't good for importers who now have to pay 10% more for the goods they ordered last month and who now will have to pass on those increases to the consumers. Petrol prices at the pump will go up but they have been very low for a long time and we are used to petrol price fluctuations. Our biggest expense is our home mortgage and in Australia ( unlike the US) mortgages...
thanks for your opinion,
So can i conclude that,
Current goverment is likely to hope/make the AUD drop further until the election?
and when election over,
current goverment win = aud drop?
liberal win = aud up?
  • #31,532
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:59pm Jun 3, 2013 11:59pm
grrr what the hell is going on!
  • #31,533
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:13am Jun 4, 2013 12:13am
Quoting Arman_A
grrr what the hell is going on!
Normal movement. It is still bearish and range bound. Nothing has changed.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,534
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:05am Jun 4, 2013 1:05am
Quoting livingston12
{quote} thanks for your opinion, So can i conclude that, Current goverment is likely to hope/make the AUD drop further until the election? and when election over, current goverment win = aud drop? liberal win = aud up?
No the government does NOT control the value of the AUD
It is free floating and its value is determined by market forces and by RBA intervention
Have a nice day
  • #31,535
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:25am Jun 4, 2013 1:25am
Current W4 retracement is to 50% (.9670) of prior wave (3?). 50% is not a pure fib level. A further drop to .9640 would be the next fib level (61.8%). But looks like we might be turning into W5 off this level. Does anyone have opinion / prior experience on how reliable a 50% retaracement is? I know 50% is given credibility as a fib level is some software - what have others' expereinces been?
  • #31,536
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:56am Jun 4, 2013 1:56am
Had a fighting chance, now blown away with this sell off.
  • #31,537
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:56am Jun 4, 2013 1:56am
I love it. Longer time frame charts always tell the story as long as you can read it. Doesn't look like Aussie bull has broken out the of the stables.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,538
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:58am Jun 4, 2013 1:58am
Quoting Arman_A
Had a fighting chance, now blown away with this sell off.
Not if you'd stay away from the intraday charts. Aussie is no bullish until it closes above .98, more importantly .985
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,539
  • Jun 4, 2013 2:02am Jun 4, 2013 2:02am
Up and down.. its haven for DTs
  • #31,540
  • Jun 4, 2013 2:03am Jun 4, 2013 2:03am
Quoting Arman_A
Had a fighting chance, now blown away with this sell off.

Arman IMO you need to work on your trading strategy
Have a nice day
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