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  • #441
  • May 11, 2013 9:01pm May 11, 2013 9:01pm
Update
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  • #442
  • May 14, 2013 3:18am May 14, 2013 3:18am
Quoting mypipbull
Soybeans Short Position opened. COT is on the buy side but trend is still firmly down so this is a fade trade. Beans have been in a bit of a range for a while now between 1450 - 1300. Price action across the grains was pretty bearish last night and today we have a classic pin. Lets see if we get any yield. {image}
Closed for 1R Loss. Not too worried...may be looking for a Long if we get above that 1450 level and hold.
  • #443
  • May 14, 2013 3:20am May 14, 2013 3:20am
Quoting mypipbull
USD/CAD - Short This is my second attempt at shorting this based .............Short as follows: [email protected] [email protected]
1R Loss......on the side for the moment.
  • #444
  • May 14, 2013 4:54am May 14, 2013 4:54am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Closed for 1R Loss. Not too worried...may be looking for a Long if we get above that 1450 level and hold.
Strength in the grains caught me by surprise as well. Still bearish though till we break out to higher highs...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #445
  • May 16, 2013 3:33pm May 16, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Strength in the grains caught me by surprise as well. Still bearish though till we break out to higher highs... Olu
Agreed...
  • #446
  • May 16, 2013 3:34pm May 16, 2013 3:34pm
Trade Update

AUD/USD (Short) -> Seems to still be in melt down mode. A bounce must be due soon?
USD/JPY (Long) -> Still working its way higher.
HeatingOil (Long) -> Hanging in there at BE or there abouts.
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  • #447
  • May 20, 2013 8:04pm May 20, 2013 8:04pm
Position Update

AUD/USD
Stop lowered to breakeven as I am waiting for a logical place to move my stop down to. There has been no real pullback yet. Looking for a swing high to lower it down to. Today was a bullish inside day which is pretty minor in the scheme of this downtrend.

USD/JPY
Stop raised as price looks like it's having a bit of a rest here. It broke nicely through the 100 level but now seems to be considering its future at the moment.

Heating Oil
Stop raised. The Daily price structure is looking good here with HH and HL structure clearly in place. Still looking positive for more upside action to play out.

Watchlist

Soybeans
Price has now closed above the 1450 level which has been pretty solid recent resistance. I will be looking to buy a pullback from here. COT data is bullish and seasonals are supportive of a late May rally also.
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  • #448
  • May 22, 2013 6:32pm May 22, 2013 6:32pm
AUD/USD

We now have a clear swing high (and a new LL) so stop has been lowered to 0.9850. Yesterdays bar was pretty large indicating there may be further downside to come yet. The COT positioning has moved well away from its bearish bias which is not at all surprising given the dramatic drop in price over the last month. In fact I have a Bullish warning now on this pair but as the downtrend is still in full effect predicting a bottom and getting long is a dangerous game. There will come a time (there always does) when this trend ends and then I may consider getting long. In the meantime looking ahead the next areas of support are likely to be 0.96 and then 0.94. Should price get this low and 0.94 gives way then the next support level is 0.8.
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  • #449
  • May 23, 2013 7:00pm May 23, 2013 7:00pm
USD/JPY - Long Closed

A bit of volatility last night and my stop was hit (then bounced up.....)
There may be opportunities on other Yen crosses with a few pin bars forming for longs.

Closed for about 1R Profit.
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  • #450
  • May 27, 2013 9:16pm May 27, 2013 9:16pm
AUD/USD - Short Update


This trade is now pretty well advanced. I have a Bullish COT warning on this pair which is more of an 'oversold' type condition. The trend is still firmly down and has shown no signs of turning however, with this warning in mind I have reduced my position by half (closed @0.9645) this is because we are at a critical level right now and I expect to see a bounce at this 0.96 level as mentioned in earlier posts. I have kept the remaining position protected with the stop at 0.9850. Many traders say that taking partial profits is a bad idea as you are cutting your wins short. This is true to a degree but this is more problematic when you have only a small amount of profit on the table i.e. 1R-2R. I am of the opinion that given the 'conditions' scraping off a bit of the cream is a wise idea. So half my position has been closed for 4.5R profit.
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  • #451
  • May 28, 2013 12:07am May 28, 2013 12:07am
Quoting mypipbull
AUD/USD - Many traders say that taking partial profits is a bad idea as you are cutting your wins short...
Not me MPB. Well done on this trade.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #452
  • May 28, 2013 4:12am May 28, 2013 4:12am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Not me MPB. Well done on this trade.
Thanks O
  • #453
  • May 28, 2013 7:36pm May 28, 2013 7:36pm
AUD/USD - Short Update

Bearish outside bar that also printed a LL. This is enough of a reason to move current SL down to 0.9710.
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  • #454
  • May 28, 2013 7:41pm May 28, 2013 7:41pm
Heating Oil - Long Update

This position was rolled over yesterday. PA still looks supportive of upside action albeit a little slow.
The HH and HL pattern continues to remain intact.
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  • #455
  • May 28, 2013 7:45pm May 28, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting mypipbull
Watchlist

Soybeans
Price has now closed above the 1450 level which has been pretty solid recent resistance. I will be looking to buy a pullback from here. COT data is bullish and seasonals are supportive of a late May rally also.
Getting interesting here now. Today I got a buy signal but I am holding off a little. The last 3 days have been a bit volatile and it looks like its deciding whether its up or down here. Crop planting reports were released the other day so there is probably a bit of deciphering going on. I am on the side and will again analyse the context of the next long signal I get.
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  • #456
  • Jun 2, 2013 9:59pm Jun 2, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting mypipbull
Heating Oil - Long Update This position was rolled over yesterday. PA still looks supportive of upside action albeit a little slow. The HH and HL pattern continues to remain intact. {image}
Stop Hit for 0.67R Loss.
The price structure no longer looks bearish. I am on the side.
  • #457
  • Jun 3, 2013 1:46pm Jun 3, 2013 1:46pm
Hey man,

Sorry for asking this again, but where did you read about the entries on the break(short) of the last candle/day that makes a HH+HL in a retracement for downtrend ? (viceversa for longs) ?

Thank you !
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #458
  • Jun 3, 2013 2:45pm Jun 3, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey man, Sorry for asking this again, but where did you read about the entries on the break(short) of the last candle/day that makes a HH+HL in a retracement for downtrend ? (viceversa for longs) ? Thank you !
If I understand you correctly it was Al Brooks. He used this approach on 5 minute charts.
I'm sure others use something similar/same but that's who I used it from.
I actually prefer to wait for that bar to be confirmed with a close before placing orders. Its a bit more conservative and generally I pay more for this extra confirmation but I'm comfortable with that.
  • #459
  • Jun 3, 2013 8:23pm Jun 3, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Stop Hit for 0.67R Loss. The price structure no longer looks bearish. I am on the side.
A very tempting bullish reversal bar dropped here today. I remain bullish this market as long as the absolute recent lowest low remains intact. This could be a ground floor entry but its a little too speculative for me as the short term trend has been down. Will keep an eye out for a long at higher prices.
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  • #460
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:47pm Jun 3, 2013 11:47pm
AUD/USD - Remaining Position Closed

Stop hit on balance of position now so closed last half at 0.9710 for +4R Profit.

Total trade Closed for 4.25R Profit.

Now......I am bullish AUD and I like what I am seeing here.
Take a look at early June 2012, this time last year we saw a medium term bottom occur. I suspect we may see the same here as I have a Bullish COT warning in place now. Also, Gold and Silver have Bullish warnings in play. The AUD is obviously correlated to these markets and they all seem to be aligning for a buy. Most importantly though we are not there yet.

From a price action point of view the current downtrend is still in effect. From a COT point of view there is nothing other than the Index that shows any signs of bullishness. We still seem to be getting deeper or 'more bullish'. I would expect to see price lead the way first and then we will see the change in positioning by the participants. Either way we are very deeply oversold and getting short again now would be pushing your luck for profit. Also the RBA today kept rates on hold so that should steady the ship a little and provide a bit more optimism for the bulls to get stuck in.

Patience is the key as usual.
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