I've know panoramia for a long while and have learned a lot from him. He's a great teacher and trader. The tools he has created are excellent. You would be wise to follow him. I've traded for about 40 years, and he has still taught me a lot!
Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
- #22
- May 20, 2013 1:10am May 20, 2013 1:10am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Thanks for your kind words Leo. This is not an easy job, we need to help each other to accomplish our goals. I'm very glad to have such an experienced trader by my side. Hopefully my 2 years experience in forex will become 40 years in the future, hope to live that long 
I've know panoramia for a long while and have learned a lot from him. He's a great teacher and trader. The tools he has created are excellent. You would be wise to follow him. I've traded for about 40 years, and he has still taught me a lot!
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #23
- May 20, 2013 1:40am May 20, 2013 1:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
This is my analysis for NZDUSD. On this short 8 minutes video I explain why I'll skip supply areas that are too close to a D1/WK demand area, like the one we are not on NZDUSD.
As you will see on the video:
- Price penetrated a fresh D1/WK demand area, the demand in control
- Selling into higher demand is not higher odds, choosing levels too close to D1/WK demand areas when these areas have been already hit is not higher odds. Demand might be in control, and close supply levels might be easily absorbed
- On the skipped 4H supply level, there is no 3:1 profit margin, so that's another reason to skip it
- On a downtrend, supply levels are respected and demand levels are being absorbed. I will always go short at good 4H/H1 supply levels UNLESS it's too close to D1/WK demand or D1/WK demand has been already hit
- I also show a couple of H1 and H4 demand levels right underneath the D1/WK demand, if current D1/WK is broken, those levels could produce some long opportunities, but again that would be "diddle in the middle", I would be looking to short on nice 4H/1H levels if current D1/WK demand in control is broken and would be trying to find a demand level at the lowest and extreme fresh D1 demand area.
- H4 level at 8151 might hold and work, but my rules won't allow me to take it. I just follow the sell high and buy low supply and demand rules. I will make many mistakes but that's part of the business. Every loss is a new lesson
I have set an order higher up in the curve, it's still a bit low but I've ERC candle and bigger profit margin. Let's see what happens.
These color codes will always be the same on my charts. I've added them to the 1st post in my thread.
COLOR CODES FOR TRENDLINES USED ON MY CHARTS:
Lime is always demand. Yellow is always supply
1. YELLOW FILLED trendline = D1 supply zone
2. LIME FILLED trendline = D1 demand zone
3. YELLOW UNFILLED long lines trendline = WK supply zone
4. LIME UNFILLED long lines trendline = WK demand zone
5. YELLOW UNFILLED DOTTED trendline = H4 supply zone
6. LIME UNFILLED DOTTED trendline = H4 demand zone
COLOR CODES FOR RECTANGLES I USE ON MY CHARTS:
No matter which timeframe I'm using, these are the color codes I use:
1. BROWN = fresh supply zone
2. DARKGREEN = non-fresh supply zone, but I will watch it in case I want to have a short on a 2nd pullback
3. UNFILLED BROWN or DARKGREEN = supply zone I will not use, but I want to have it on my charts to see areas I want to see broken and/or reaction to it
4. BLUE= fresh demand zone
5. DIMGREY= non-fresh demand zone, but I will watch it in case I want to have a long on a 2nd pullback
6. UNFILLED DIMGREY OR BLUE = demand zone I will not use, but I want to have it on my charts to see areas I want to see broken and/or reaction to it
7. PURPPLE = area I don't trust because of not a clean formation or "diddle in the middle" area. But I want to see how price reacts to it and learn from it
As you will see on the video:
- Price penetrated a fresh D1/WK demand area, the demand in control
- Selling into higher demand is not higher odds, choosing levels too close to D1/WK demand areas when these areas have been already hit is not higher odds. Demand might be in control, and close supply levels might be easily absorbed
- On the skipped 4H supply level, there is no 3:1 profit margin, so that's another reason to skip it
- On a downtrend, supply levels are respected and demand levels are being absorbed. I will always go short at good 4H/H1 supply levels UNLESS it's too close to D1/WK demand or D1/WK demand has been already hit
- I also show a couple of H1 and H4 demand levels right underneath the D1/WK demand, if current D1/WK is broken, those levels could produce some long opportunities, but again that would be "diddle in the middle", I would be looking to short on nice 4H/1H levels if current D1/WK demand in control is broken and would be trying to find a demand level at the lowest and extreme fresh D1 demand area.
- H4 level at 8151 might hold and work, but my rules won't allow me to take it. I just follow the sell high and buy low supply and demand rules. I will make many mistakes but that's part of the business. Every loss is a new lesson
I have set an order higher up in the curve, it's still a bit low but I've ERC candle and bigger profit margin. Let's see what happens.
Inserted Video
These color codes will always be the same on my charts. I've added them to the 1st post in my thread.
COLOR CODES FOR TRENDLINES USED ON MY CHARTS:
Lime is always demand. Yellow is always supply
1. YELLOW FILLED trendline = D1 supply zone
2. LIME FILLED trendline = D1 demand zone
3. YELLOW UNFILLED long lines trendline = WK supply zone
4. LIME UNFILLED long lines trendline = WK demand zone
5. YELLOW UNFILLED DOTTED trendline = H4 supply zone
6. LIME UNFILLED DOTTED trendline = H4 demand zone
COLOR CODES FOR RECTANGLES I USE ON MY CHARTS:
No matter which timeframe I'm using, these are the color codes I use:
1. BROWN = fresh supply zone
2. DARKGREEN = non-fresh supply zone, but I will watch it in case I want to have a short on a 2nd pullback
3. UNFILLED BROWN or DARKGREEN = supply zone I will not use, but I want to have it on my charts to see areas I want to see broken and/or reaction to it
4. BLUE= fresh demand zone
5. DIMGREY= non-fresh demand zone, but I will watch it in case I want to have a long on a 2nd pullback
6. UNFILLED DIMGREY OR BLUE = demand zone I will not use, but I want to have it on my charts to see areas I want to see broken and/or reaction to it
7. PURPPLE = area I don't trust because of not a clean formation or "diddle in the middle" area. But I want to see how price reacts to it and learn from it
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #25
- May 20, 2013 2:28am May 20, 2013 2:28am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Yes, there was a mistake I made. I forget to include some libraries needed to calculate type of account, etc.
I've already repacked the zip files with the indicators and libraries needed, they are attached in the first post, sorry
Alfonso
I've already repacked the zip files with the indicators and libraries needed, they are attached in the first post, sorry
Alfonso
{quote} Thank you very much for this thread and shearing all your experience. I like your detail explanation and movies .. keep going well done! I have installed your tmpl. and all the indicators and faced some trouble. Looks like other indictors doesn't work correctly. S/R doesn't paint dots at all, and ADR after changing TF doesn't show values .. . Any idea what could be the reason behind? I have applied default settings. thx a lot. {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #26
- Edited 2:54am May 20, 2013 2:30am | Edited 2:54am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Thanks to a user that read my thread, I realized I made a mistake when packing the indicators needed for my template, they also need some libraries that has some inner functionalities needed by the indicators.
Please downlod the indicators.zip file again from the 1st post in my thread or this post.
You will need to:
- Copy indicators to MT/Experts/Indicators folder
- Copy libraries to MT/Experts/Libraries folder
- Restart MT when you do that
Sorry for the inconvenience! We're all humans after all!
Alfonso
Please downlod the indicators.zip file again from the 1st post in my thread or this post.
You will need to:
- Copy indicators to MT/Experts/Indicators folder
- Copy libraries to MT/Experts/Libraries folder
- Restart MT when you do that
Sorry for the inconvenience! We're all humans after all!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #28
- Edited 3:04am May 20, 2013 2:53am | Edited 3:04am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
A moving average is a lagging indicator, like most indicators are. The only non-lagging indicator I am aware of is Price Action. But, I use the 20 and the 50 EMAs on higher timeframes as a filter for levels. Levels within those EMAs work better IF the higher timeframes are in the same direction and we're within them.
See my GBPUSD short on a H4 level, it's at or withing 20/50 EMAs. I use it sometimes to filter out levels which have not produced a big drop/rally, in a sort of sequence with at lest 3 timeframes. It's just another part of my trading plan. I didn't go through explaing how I use the EMAs, it's part of my templates, but I use it in certain situations only. It's been part of a long forward test I've been doing for months with the first strategy I learnt, and it helps be filter out levels. Many instructors at Online Trading Academy (Sam Evans, Irfan Patel and others), use them in the higher timeframes as well to do just that. They only do SD trading as well, it's just a mechanic way of filtering out levels that have not retraced that much to consider a a level to lean on. But yes, it's a lagging indicator, will not use them for entry, but as filters the same way you could use the 38.2, 50 or 61.8 fib retracement to calculate a pullback big enough for you to consider an entry at a good SD level.
It can be confusing maybe, so I have removed it for now from my default template, which can be found in the previous thread and the first post.
See my GBPUSD short on a H4 level, it's at or withing 20/50 EMAs. I use it sometimes to filter out levels which have not produced a big drop/rally, in a sort of sequence with at lest 3 timeframes. It's just another part of my trading plan. I didn't go through explaing how I use the EMAs, it's part of my templates, but I use it in certain situations only. It's been part of a long forward test I've been doing for months with the first strategy I learnt, and it helps be filter out levels. Many instructors at Online Trading Academy (Sam Evans, Irfan Patel and others), use them in the higher timeframes as well to do just that. They only do SD trading as well, it's just a mechanic way of filtering out levels that have not retraced that much to consider a a level to lean on. But yes, it's a lagging indicator, will not use them for entry, but as filters the same way you could use the 38.2, 50 or 61.8 fib retracement to calculate a pullback big enough for you to consider an entry at a good SD level.
It can be confusing maybe, so I have removed it for now from my default template, which can be found in the previous thread and the first post.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #29
- May 20, 2013 3:24am May 20, 2013 3:24am
Thanks to a user that read my thread, I realized I made a mistake when packing the indicators needed for my template, they also need some libraries that has some inner functionalities needed by the indicators. Please downlod the indicators.zip file again from the 1st post in my thread or this post. You will need to: - Copy indicators to MT/Experts/Indicators folder - Copy libraries to MT/Experts/Libraries folder - Restart MT when you do that Sorry for the inconvenience! We're all humans after all!
the only remains is the MA CCI as no value available, what could be missing there? thanks a lot
- #30
- May 20, 2013 3:30am May 20, 2013 3:30am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
I know the reason, but we're not using the CCI, so it's ok Don't worry! I am fine tuning my template. As you have it now it's ok. I even removed in last updated tempalte the 20/50 EMAs to avoid confusions because I didn't explain how to use them with SD entries. So you can remove them for now if you want, so that we're concentrated on price action. In the future I will see if I make some video on those 2 EMAs.
Thanks a lot for your messages.
Alfonso
Don't worry! I am fine tuning my template. As you have it now it's ok. I even removed in last updated tempalte the 20/50 EMAs to avoid confusions because I didn't explain how to use them with SD entries. So you can remove them for now if you want, so that we're concentrated on price action. In the future I will see if I make some video on those 2 EMAs.Thanks a lot for your messages.
Alfonso
{quote} thank you, this problem solved and now works perfectly
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #31
- Edited 6:28am May 20, 2013 6:16am | Edited 6:28am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #32
- May 21, 2013 1:47am May 21, 2013 1:47am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
This is an update on the NZDUSD trade planned on the video posted in a previous post (video).
The H4 supply area didn't hold, I had given my reasons, I could have been wrong, but I followed my logic and trading plan as described on the videos:
I've a planned a short at 0.8250 with SL a bit above the distal line, which is a nice fresh H4 supply a bit further away from the D1/WK demand area. It's still a bit aggressive since we're close to the WK demand, but at least it's a bigger retracement (38% minimum always) and it matches a downslope H4 trendline. Price might not make it but I have it planned there.
The H4 supply area didn't hold, I had given my reasons, I could have been wrong, but I followed my logic and trading plan as described on the videos:
I've a planned a short at 0.8250 with SL a bit above the distal line, which is a nice fresh H4 supply a bit further away from the D1/WK demand area. It's still a bit aggressive since we're close to the WK demand, but at least it's a bigger retracement (38% minimum always) and it matches a downslope H4 trendline. Price might not make it but I have it planned there.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #33
- May 21, 2013 1:52am May 21, 2013 1:52am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
I had planned a H4 long trade on USDCAD next to the D1 demand area you can see drawn with green trendlines (see my color codes in my first post to know what each color means).
Price didn't make it to my level, it stopped at a H1 speedbump demand area I didn't have an order at. It was the decision point where the market decided to solidly break higher above 1.0200. My H4 speedump demand area is lower than that, I will leave my limit order there, the level is still valid with a great imbalance and right at a fresh D1 demand area.
Price didn't make it to my level, it stopped at a H1 speedbump demand area I didn't have an order at. It was the decision point where the market decided to solidly break higher above 1.0200. My H4 speedump demand area is lower than that, I will leave my limit order there, the level is still valid with a great imbalance and right at a fresh D1 demand area.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #34
- May 21, 2013 8:25am May 21, 2013 8:25am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
I'm going to try these 2 levels on CADJPY, I have 2 limit orders, one for short and one for long.
I was not triggered on the long one even though my entry was hit, I guess brokers widened the spread as they always do.
The supply level is an unfilled gap with lots of strength to the sell side.
The demand level is non-fresh, but it was touch'n go with lot of strength and pair is very bullish, so a second pullback is on my trading plan with such a strong departure on the 1st pullback.
Let's see what happens. Any comments on both trades?
I was not triggered on the long one even though my entry was hit, I guess brokers widened the spread as they always do.
The supply level is an unfilled gap with lots of strength to the sell side.
The demand level is non-fresh, but it was touch'n go with lot of strength and pair is very bullish, so a second pullback is on my trading plan with such a strong departure on the 1st pullback.
Let's see what happens. Any comments on both trades?
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #35
- May 21, 2013 11:01am May 21, 2013 11:01am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: On Life's Path | 2,076 Posts
- #36
- May 21, 2013 2:24pm May 21, 2013 2:24pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Thanks for your supportive message, doing my best!
You are right about what you said. Gap was not filled yet though, that's why I had the order at that imbalance.
I've temporarily cancelled both trades becasue there are tentative news for the Yen tonight about its Monetary Policy as well as a Bank of Japan Conference. Learnt the lesson in the past as far as this kind of news is related, and I normally cancel my trades temporarily when there are news that can make price go in any direction, unless my entry is at the extremes and it's a fresh level. It's not the case, so I cancelled them for now... When the storm has passed I will see where I will set my entries again
Tomorrow the markets will move a bit with the Yen news and others planned on the CAD and US.
Thanks for reading my thread!
Alfonso
You are right about what you said. Gap was not filled yet though, that's why I had the order at that imbalance.
I've temporarily cancelled both trades becasue there are tentative news for the Yen tonight about its Monetary Policy as well as a Bank of Japan Conference. Learnt the lesson in the past as far as this kind of news is related, and I normally cancel my trades temporarily when there are news that can make price go in any direction, unless my entry is at the extremes and it's a fresh level. It's not the case, so I cancelled them for now... When the storm has passed I will see where I will set my entries again
Tomorrow the markets will move a bit with the Yen news and others planned on the CAD and US.
Thanks for reading my thread!
Alfonso
{quote} Thanks for the charts, lessons & videos. Very informative. I'm just a studying newbie so probably shouldn't be commenting but might as well find out why I'm wrong. As for the CADJPY short order after the gap-fill, I wouldn't feel comfortable taking that trade for a few reasons. 1-Seems that there's a flip of support/resistance @ the big-round-number of 100 so if price closes above, price might retest 100 before shooting higher? 2-There's been several probes into the gap area so could some of the upper supply be moving down a little so slowly...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #38
- May 22, 2013 1:30am May 22, 2013 1:30am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Hello there Babalame,
The rectangle indicator will NOT draw any supply and demand zones for you, you will have to draw the zones with MT4's rectangle tool and the indicator will do what is explained on the video and the thread. As far as the platform being shutdown, I can't tell you what it can be, the indicators shouldn't cause that problem. Other users installed it without any problem, and a few friends of mine as well and no issue. I don't know what it could be, sorry
Alfonso
The rectangle indicator will NOT draw any supply and demand zones for you, you will have to draw the zones with MT4's rectangle tool and the indicator will do what is explained on the video and the thread. As far as the platform being shutdown, I can't tell you what it can be, the indicators shouldn't cause that problem. Other users installed it without any problem, and a few friends of mine as well and no issue. I don't know what it could be, sorry
Alfonso
hello panoramia thanks for explanation of curve and all very helpful, tried to put your indicator into my MT4 but it did not work no supply or demand zone drawn and if i change the time frame the platform went out and will have to reopen my mt4 pls how can i make it work thanks
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hello there Babalame, The rectangle indicator will NOT draw any supply and demand zones for you, you will have to draw the zones with MT4's rectangle tool and the indicator will do what is explained on the video and the thread. As far as the platform being shutdown, I can't tell you what it can be, the indicators shouldn't cause that problem. Other users installed it without any problem, and a few friends of mine as well and no issue. I don't know what it could be, sorry
Do you have some setups for today to post?
- #40
- Edited 4:22am May 22, 2013 3:56am | Edited 4:22am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
I have quite a few setups running always, it's very very difficult to post all of them here, it would take 1 post for each and I have like 30+ setups for swing trading, and lots of time for me to do it, sorry
This is the last one from this morning, for the EURAUD.
This is a personal software I developped for logging my Supply and Demand trades, it's for personal use, but you'll see details there. The charts are below. That's what I'm looking for EURAUD for now.
EURAUD D1 chart:
EURAUD H1 entry:
EURAUD H4 for targets:
This is the last one from this morning, for the EURAUD.
This is a personal software I developped for logging my Supply and Demand trades, it's for personal use, but you'll see details there. The charts are below. That's what I'm looking for EURAUD for now.
EURAUD D1 chart:
EURAUD H1 entry:
EURAUD H4 for targets:
{quote} Hi Panoramia, Do you have some setups for today to post?
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community