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  • #30,021
  • May 17, 2013 8:17pm May 17, 2013 8:17pm
UJ is due for an immediate correction. If AJ is up then AU shall follow.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,022
  • May 17, 2013 8:20pm May 17, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
UJ is due for an immediate correction. If AJ is up then AU shall follow.
UJ may have a 300 pips correction next week IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,023
  • May 17, 2013 8:22pm May 17, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} UJ may have a 300 pips correction next week IMO.
I doubt that. UJ will touch more highs this week. I expect it will climb to 105 in next couple of weeks.
  • #30,024
  • May 17, 2013 8:23pm May 17, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} UJ may have a 300 pips correction next week IMO.
If AU bounces off 300 pips from current level, it would be around the parity. This is in line with my earlier post....

Quoting DaddyBear
In H4 context, the Aussie bounces back to the parity is likely but it will be rejected at the heavy Ichimoku clouds and drops back to the Earth.... http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368823255
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,025
  • May 17, 2013 8:27pm May 17, 2013 8:27pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote} I doubt that. UJ will touch more highs this week. I expect it will climb to 105 in next couple of weeks.
Let me show you the Daily breakdown EWC......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 24 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,026
  • May 17, 2013 8:31pm May 17, 2013 8:31pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Let me show you the Daily breakdown EWC...... {image}
This is H1. Is this crystal clear to you? BTW, what is your rationale?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 25 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,027
  • May 17, 2013 8:37pm May 17, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Let me show you the Daily breakdown EWC...... {image}
Well I don't see a technical moves. Currently it's more fundamentally moving and USD is not finished it's shit yet. It will still dominate the market next week. Only hope for this correction is BoJ int rate. We can see 102 but 100 is definitely not soon for UJ. Well I like to be wrong but this is what I feel. h1 h4 d1 none of them shown any sign of south. IMO the market will be volatile for entire May.
  • #30,028
  • May 17, 2013 8:48pm May 17, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote} Well I don't see a technical moves. Currently it's more fundamentally moving and USD is not finished it's shit yet. It will still dominate the market next week. Only hope for this correction is BoJ int rate. We can see 102 but 100 is definitely not soon for UJ. Well I like to be wrong but this is what I feel. h1 h4 d1 none of them shown any sign of south. IMO the market will be volatile for entire May.
Can you post your chart to indicate your bullish bias on the UJ?
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,029
  • May 17, 2013 8:50pm May 17, 2013 8:50pm
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is on Monday. Fundamentally, it could be bad but I think the market paths were preset. Technical will lead fundamentals IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,030
  • May 17, 2013 8:53pm May 17, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote} Well I don't see a technical moves. Currently it's more fundamentally moving and USD is not finished it's shit yet. It will still dominate the market next week. Only hope for this correction is BoJ int rate. We can see 102 but 100 is definitely not soon for UJ. Well I like to be wrong but this is what I feel. h1 h4 d1 none of them shown any sign of south. IMO the market will be volatile for entire May.
The reason I see UJ reaching 100 is based on this ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 152 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,031
  • May 17, 2013 8:57pm May 17, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Can you post your chart to indicate your bullish bias on the UJ?
Sure! Wait! I am on mobile. Will upload within few minutes!
  • #30,032
  • May 17, 2013 9:03pm May 17, 2013 9:03pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote} Sure! Wait! I am on mobile. Will upload within few minutes!
Thanks. Looking forward to reading your chart.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,033
  • May 17, 2013 9:13pm May 17, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Thanks. Looking forward to reading your chart.
yup! Okay here I have uploaded quickly. I hope you understand them. I have not added fib, just want to say what I see fundamentally.

So IMO 102.5 or at max 102 will be the support for the drop but again this will move up to target 105
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy1.jpg Size: 265 KB
  • #30,034
  • May 17, 2013 9:18pm May 17, 2013 9:18pm
And this is quick of AUD. It will follow the down trend for next week too. My 1st target of .98 was not touched . Currently my long is in just 4 pips red. I changed my tp to .977 now! I know it will be hard for you to understand without any markings but I guess you have seen this on your charts so it will be easy for you to understand what I mean to say!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.jpg Size: 305 KB
  • #30,035
  • May 17, 2013 9:28pm May 17, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote} yup! Okay here I have uploaded quickly. I hope you understand them. I have not added fib, just want to say what I see fundamentally. So IMO 102.5 or at max 102 will be the support for the drop but again this will move up to target 105 {image}
I see what you see. The reality is the LTL may not hold this time due to channel shifting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 33 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,036
  • May 17, 2013 9:32pm May 17, 2013 9:32pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} I see what you see. The reality is the LTL may not hold this time due to channel shifting. {image}
Well that's what I am not expecting. This will move in the channel at least for the May. We can see the correction after the completion of sell off. but 100 for now will ultimately bring AU at parity, NZ at .83 even EU can get some pumping which USD will never want. They have got the momentum they were looking after and they will not give up easily.
  • #30,037
  • May 17, 2013 9:37pm May 17, 2013 9:37pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote} Well that's what I am not expecting. This will move in the channel at least for the May. We can see the correction after the completion of sell off. but 100 for now will ultimately bring AU at parity, NZ at .83 even EU can get some pumping which USD will never want. They have got the momentum they were looking after and they will not give up easily.
So you agree with me that AU is hitting the parity next. Why do you have a TP at 97.77?
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,038
  • May 17, 2013 9:47pm May 17, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} So you agree with me that AU is hitting the parity next. Why do you have a TP at 97.77?
lolz nope! I said "If" UJ drops to 100 "then" AU will hit parity. "But" it is "not" going to happen "soon". That will be a trend reversal. AU have a lot of hurdles and created many resistances in parity range. So it's not going to be an easy task. We need a trend reversal or some magical fundamental shocks to weaken USD. And I don't know if you believe on Gold, but it too plays role in AU and NU. I found that co relation many times. So I want to take exit from current long asap as I think the drop is not over yet. I am targetting .977 as comparatively low resistance in between. Any small "news" can boost AU to .98 so better safe than sorry.

"if" the scenario changes according to "your" expectations, I will reenter too. But to be honestly I don't see that is going to happen. Again I would like to be wrong as I want AU at parity but forex is thing where your "wishes and hopes" gets crushed badly. So I will take exit as soon as my long turns out some green to atleast get back over week fees and will buy in dips as I "think" S3 (.95x) is what we "can" see at the end of the month.
  • #30,039
  • May 17, 2013 9:59pm May 17, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote} lolz nope! I said "If" UJ drops to 100 "then" AU will hit parity. "But" it is "not" going to happen "soon". That will be a trend reversal. AU have a lot of hurdles and created many resistances in parity range. So it's not going to be an easy task. We need a trend reversal or some magical fundamental shocks to weaken USD. And I don't know if you believe on Gold, but it too plays role in AU and NU. I found that co relation many times. So I want to take exit from current long asap as I think the drop is not over yet. I am targetting...
I don't expect anything to happen but look at the charts to figure out what next is. I don't think AU is bottomed but a rebound is likely.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,040
  • May 17, 2013 11:22pm May 17, 2013 11:22pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} I don't expect anything to happen but look at the charts to figure out what next is. I don't think AU is bottomed but a rebound is likely.
What I am afraid of is the bigger time frames. w1 time frame is scary enough to see what big players can do with the market! Look at UJ w1 , not only 105, 120 which is 2008 high can also be in sight if JPY continues weakening. Same follows for AU. Just hope for the best.
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