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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #340,161
  • May 8, 2013 2:32am May 8, 2013 2:32am
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} Excellent technical and fundamental analysis I must say. Forget the first time vid bit. You are a natural! Will want to watch more of this. This is actually technical analysis, not a vid about a trading platform tour. Thanks and cheers
thx man, great inspiration to keep it up with these analysis!
ill doo my best
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #340,162
  • May 8, 2013 2:38am May 8, 2013 2:38am
I am glad that someone in here is trying to explain why the GBP is not a long. But I do need all of the long people in here to buy my short positions! If you are wondering why longs do not work except for a few month to a few week and then the rest of the time it is short. Then watch his video, he is trying to explain why it is moving down long term. Other factors also causing the GBP to head south but he is touching on all the major ( big impact ones ). Alot of other things that are smaller that's causing it to move down too. Would take too long to cover all of them and the reason why!
Quoting fxtyrant
GBPUSD Analysis 5/8/2013 For best viewing experience, please play it at 720p HD settings. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzjvBvEueS4&hd=1
  • #340,163
  • May 8, 2013 2:50am May 8, 2013 2:50am
Quoting Robby
I am glad that someone in here is trying to explain why the GBP is not a long. But I do need all of the long people in here to buy my short positions! If you are wondering why longs do not work except for a few month to a few week and then the rest of the time it is short. Then watch his video, he is trying to explain why it is moving down long term. Other factors also causing the GBP to head south but he is touching on all the major ( big impact ones ). Alot of other things that are smaller that's causing it to move down too. Would take too long...
have i covered enough on why i am bearish on the long term?
i hope it helps...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #340,164
  • May 8, 2013 2:57am May 8, 2013 2:57am
Yes you covered all the big things that are driving it south. All of the small things would take you hours and hours to explain. I am not going to go into it here. I already said a few of them when I started building my short position starting back around 1.53 and I am still adding to it on each failure. You covered alot of good reason why. Maybe some people will learn from you. They do not from me. I am glad that you did that video!
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} have i covered enough on why i am bearish on the long term?
  • #340,165
  • May 8, 2013 3:02am May 8, 2013 3:02am
Quoting Robby
Yes you covered all the big things that are driving it south. All of the small things would take you hours and hours to explain. I am not going to go into it here. I already said a few of them when I started building my short position starting back around 1.53 and I am still adding to it on each failure. You covered alot of good reason why. Maybe some people will learn from you. They do not from me. I am glad that you did that video!{quote}
Ive also forgottent o mention why i expect a drop in the next few days or so... CCI Divergence occured on the daily... where the price moving up from 1.53 to 1.55 has actually provided us with a downwards sloping top on the CCI divergence....
this is a classing sell signal, surprise my indicator didnt plot it in the chart but its there....

so i expect a move down pretty soon....
on the long run.... i wouldnt be surprised if we will retest 1.48xx lows in the near future...
in fact i wouldnt be surprised if it created a new low at 1.45 (only if we have established a lower swing high thats lower than the previous highs of 1.63)
To form a potential Downwards channel to play with.... a pretty big downwards channel if you ask me..... one where swing high to swing low would have 800+ pips of moving space in it....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #340,166
  • Edited 3:26am May 8, 2013 3:11am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting baherhosni
Wow.. Its amazing how this thread only comes to life with market volatility. Bones, time for some of that free wisdom retest north, or continuation south? I say it will tend to try a touch of the 5500.. A quite morning to you too everyone..
Testing the 5500 now..


EDIT [Addition]: now we are at %61 Fib on yesterday's move, the 15 min 200ema and 5500.. hmm.. thinking it will hold imo..

Oh and the 55ema on hourly

Oh and all the other things that fxtyrant said
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,167
  • May 8, 2013 3:24am May 8, 2013 3:24am
Short at 1.5507 small possition. Will add if it goes a bit higher.
  • #340,168
  • Edited 3:57am May 8, 2013 3:32am | Edited 3:57am
Yep...you are right on target... That is why I am building my short position and why I started at 1.53. As we are moving up I saw the divergence on CCI / Slow %K and stuff I developed to give me the speed of the direction. Why I am still adding. I will stop adding when it passes through 1.53.

I think you will have the lows taken out with out any problem at 1.48. You will notice on the down side you will see after every 50% retrenchment you will have the next leg go passed the low of the previous retrenchment. That happens better than 80% and if the retrenchment is 38% is almost 99% the low will be taken out.

Only time will tell who is right. I do not let stuff take my eye off the target. News and the econ reports are such a lie that it's so hard to tell what is real and what is fact. So I just take some basic stuff and go with it. If the market moves different that how I see it. That is super for me, give me a better place to get in my trade. I general the tech and chart over ride what the gov tells you and what the news is. I have always made money from divergence but the news and gov reports always seem to make parabolic moves that make it hard to see the divergence so you haft to do what you are. Using more than 2 months of data points as a filter to knock out or reduce the noise so you can see the divergence.

What I do is re-size the indicators to the previous top and bottom so the indicator will have a reference of the last move. Every day I go reset the time frames for each indicator I uses to make sure it covers the last or most current fib. That is just me personally how I use indicators. Requires more effort but it has better results and allows you to see things in a better light than just setting a number and for get about it then wondering why did my indicator give me a false signal. Basically if you draw a fib then the indicator should cover that same time period that the fib did too. Both are looking at the same time frame. That is just me!
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Ive also forgottent o mention why i expect a drop in the next few days or so... CCI Divergence occured on the daily... where the price moving up from 1.53 to 1.55 has actually provided us with a downwards sloping top on the CCI divergence.... this is a classing sell signal, surprise my indicator didnt plot it in the chart but its there.... so i expect a move down pretty soon.... on the long run.... i wouldnt be surprised if we will retest 1.48xx lows in the near future... in fact i wouldnt be surprised if it created a new low at 1.45 (only...
  • #340,169
  • May 8, 2013 3:52am May 8, 2013 3:52am
Ok all good . gold need breaks 1447 + 46 towards previous low or new one for the next bounce up , likely eu 3034, gu 5420+14 . to care after those levels broken for me .
take care yourselves .
usdchf (up )& usdcad ( going in lin>dn )concerns , still should take 1-2 weeks or more , so not for now .
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldh1.png Size: 26 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #340,170
  • Edited 4:47am May 8, 2013 4:36am | Edited 4:47am
Did anyone notice on 1hr chart w/ MACD prvs days on 4/24/13 15:00 up to recent time? It's look like Bear bias... maybe the tread facing north eventually. Maybe this go up to 57 before Bear will go deep.
  • #340,171
  • May 8, 2013 5:10am May 8, 2013 5:10am
I would love to see 57! I would tack on 25 lots if it did make it that high to my short position!
Quoting skyhawkps
Did anyone notice on 1hr chart w/ MACD prvs days on 4/24/13 15:00 up to recent time? It's look like Bear bias... maybe the tread facing north eventually. Maybe this go up to 57 before Bear will go deep.
  • #340,172
  • May 8, 2013 5:14am May 8, 2013 5:14am
Quoting Robby
I would love to see 57! I would tack on 25 lots if it did make it that high to my short position!{quote}
I would like to try that on demo if it happens
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,173
  • May 8, 2013 5:18am May 8, 2013 5:18am
Personally, I'll wait for a break south, but could be a good R/R short from here

Down to 50 fib max I think for a retest before north again.

Either that or ...


If we break above that resistance line, we way not go back at all

My idea anyway
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 28 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,174
  • May 8, 2013 5:20am May 8, 2013 5:20am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Personally, I'll wait for a break south, but could be a good R/R short from here Down to 50 fib max I think for a retest before north again. Either that or ... If we break above that resistance line, we way not go back at all My idea anyway {image} {image}
This much clearer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 35 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,175
  • May 8, 2013 5:22am May 8, 2013 5:22am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Personally, I'll wait for a break south, but could be a good R/R short from here Down to 50 fib max I think for a retest before north again. Either that or ... If we break above that resistance line, we way not go back at all My idea anyway {image} {image}
Oh definetly it will go back down... check your chart again on W1 & MN.
  • #340,176
  • May 8, 2013 5:30am May 8, 2013 5:30am
If this will breakout at 1.5550 then 1.5670/57.
  • #340,177
  • May 8, 2013 5:35am May 8, 2013 5:35am
Quoting skyhawkps
{quote} Oh definetly it will go back down... check your chart again on W1 & MN.
What am I looking for?

Monthly is bullish and weekly indecisive
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly.png Size: 27 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,178
  • May 8, 2013 5:37am May 8, 2013 5:37am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} This much clearer {image}

let us zoom in
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd201205081411-1-1.jpg Size: 190 KB
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,179
  • May 8, 2013 5:42am May 8, 2013 5:42am
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} let us zoom in {image}
Yes I see bear pressure on lower TF
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,180
  • May 8, 2013 5:54am May 8, 2013 5:54am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} What am I looking for? Monthly is bullish and weekly indecisive {image} {image}
yea I see that... but you should consider the MACD also in your chart, so you can tell the volume of trends... getting weak or strong. That's only my opinion.
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