All Majors and Gold

Is there anyone who is still buying gold? If so what is your level?

750-800

*today

i am only in sell position on silver, think gold 1460 be broken and next 1420, if asia sell gold, i think us do same

Hi Everyone,

Just though, I’ll share with you a long term view on Gold, based on the Commitments of Traders report. The situation today is pretty significant, Small Speculators haven’t been net short for roughly 12 years now --> they are really pessimistic about the market. This is generally a bullish signal in cot analysis. I’ve also found a very similar picture, when the cot charts / prices chart looked like the one today (marked by circles on the chart).

For more info about the cot report and analysis on it, check out my thread here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=376395

All the best,
Dunstan

How can a small investor be long in the FUTURES market while it is falling. It's simply impossible.

Using Options on Futures perhaps? (margin requirement problems solved)

Isn't the COT report about positions in the futures market?

You can look at the COT report with Futures & Options data as well.
Back to my chart I have just posted… I wanted to scale in to the “first circle”. Your question (“How can a small investor be long in the FUTURES market while it is falling. It's simply impossible.”) could have been asked back then also. If you weren’t following the COT report, then of course it is a very understandable question, but you see in my view, your question simply reassures my belief that Small Speculators are usually wrong --> They are currently panicking and selling everything they’ve got and even going net short.

All the best,
Dunstan

(Futures & Options data: Options positions are translated to futures contracts by multiplying the number of contracts by their respective deltas)

@Dunstan - Thanks for the COT analysis, its obvious that Gold is bullish but "when & where you can buy it" is the question. Whats your view ? Are you watching any particular levels for get engaged to long ?

Once against thanks for sharing your COT analysis, its pretty but I am poor in it.

Cheers!

There was an article on Zerohedge that people were actually buying a lot of physical gold @ 1350. And I mean a lot!
I think they were wrong too!

Hi alex4xes,

Yes, that’s the big question, I get it a lot I usually say to anyone, interested in cot analysis, that you can use the cot report two ways: 1) as a confirmation tool or 2) as a compass to find trading opportunities. To be a bit more detailed… If you trade a few specific markets and you probably have an existing system, I advise you to add the information which the cot report gives you to know the general long term picture. The second way it can be used, if you are not narrowing down the possible markets you can trade. In this case, you can simply search for markets, where there is an interesting cot signal, for example and All Time COT Extreme. Then you can start analyzing that market to possibly enter it if you find it a good trade.

In case of Gold now, I would say that it depends from the scenario. First question, what kind of trader are you? Cause for a classic day trader, maybe this whole cot analysis thing is a waste of time. If you at least hold your positions for a few days, then it can be worth using and if you are willing to hold positions for even weeks or months, than I think you shouldn’t neglect using it.

The other big question is, do you already have positions in Gold? Cause if you were following the report (as I always do) then you were/are short at the moment. If that’s the case, you may consider scaling out of your positions or bringing down your stops or of course simply exiting the whole trade and consider going short or wait on the side lines.

If you have no positions in Gold yet, then the question is: what instrument and strategy to use to enter… If you have the capital, you can of course trade directly futures contracts (mini or the large), if you have a smaller account, you can consider buying and selling options (in case of selling, you may want to consider some kind of hedge against it!) or you can look towards the ETF-s. Then you can also consider trading markets that correlate with Gold, stocks or even currencies for that matter. The strategy part of the question, I wish not to go into, because there are many to choose from…

These days I generally trade options, it gives the most flexibility to construct the best trade that suits you. I was buying straddles, when waiting for the big decline in Gold and worked out perfectly. I’m out of Gold at the moment, but seriously considering to buy some straddles a bit balanced towards the Calls now. I might even try to build up a futures position starting by entering on an intraday chart and as prices move in the right direction, slowly switching to larger time frames and just letting the trade evolve into a longer term position which I would keep until I don’t get an opposite signal from the cot report.

All the best,
Dunstan
Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Thanks man,

That was a lot of explanation & gives a impression you know a good bit about this trading game. Well as I said before I am poor to digest a huge chuck of knowledge or information, & COT is one such knowledge. May be I should try to learn from someone to know about it, as I feel its little difficult for me to learn it all myself unlike as I did to learn many things in trading myself. I trade only spot forex & I am doing quiet good in it as of now. As far was Gold trade is concerned, I am short now for medium term may be till a week or two. Iam trying to target the low of last sell off as I believe there is lot of buy orders from the big boys. Once the price gets into 1320-45 handle I will start looking for options to get long on Gold. But I am waiting for market to respond, as of now it seem to be respecting my plan but only time can tell whether I m doing it right or wrong.

buy @ 1461.70
tp @ 1468.70
sl @ 1457.70

good luck

amansuri1 how come you don't post on the oil and gas thread you asked me to open?

has anyone been following that .....damn ive been 100% accurate....
60 posts and 205,000 views ....

[quote=gnomoneey;6662438]{quote} has anyone been following that .....damn ive been 100% accurate.... 60 posts and 205,000 views ....

damn 100% accurate..bye gold OIL here i come

shorters in gold don't get caught up missing the next move.....look at the charts...

again im off shoveling more dirt today, maybe I can break my back this time...