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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #6,581
  • Edited 11:42pm May 3, 2013 5:59pm | Edited 11:42pm
For next week: GJ don't know yet, probably short
EJ = short
UJ = short
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  • #6,582
  • May 3, 2013 9:53pm May 3, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting BobGnarly
My clients 3k account is now at 15,500.. We agreed to hold this 1 trade all year lol {image}
pretty smart of yas to know to hold...That's what I'm doing but I have to break it into 4 shorter trades. Or it's "investing".
  • #6,583
  • May 3, 2013 10:25pm May 3, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} pretty smart of yas to know to hold...That's what I'm doing but I have to break it into 4 shorter trades. Or it's "investing".
Ya I as well had bought UJ at 84 back in December but I got rid of it @ 90. I'm kicking myself for that now
  • #6,584
  • May 4, 2013 12:34am May 4, 2013 12:34am
I don't know how you guys can even consider shorts here, for now dips are just profit taking.
  • #6,585
  • Edited 2:15am May 4, 2013 1:37am | Edited 2:15am
GJ under 155.5 is bearish.

UJ is now bearish, either short term in a triangle or looking for channel bottom (96.6), or medium - long term looking for a 23-38% retracement.

GU is bearish as long as it holds below about 1.5610 ish, being POSSIBLE initial retest of bottom of long term triangle pattern.

However, to blindly state that GJ is bullish at this level (without further data) is simplistic in the extreme.

IMHO, at 154.6 GJ met yet another significant resistance and will now begin a retrace back to the 137 area, although expecting a big bounce at about 147.5 ~ 148.5 .

GJ break over 155.5 takes it to 159 (possible channel top) reasonably quickly.
  • #6,586
  • May 4, 2013 5:28am May 4, 2013 5:28am
Quoting Mpt
GJ under 155.5 is bearish. UJ is now bearish, either short term in a triangle or looking for channel bottom (96.6), or medium - long term looking for a 23-38% retracement. GU is bearish as long as it holds below about 1.5610 ish, being POSSIBLE initial retest of bottom of long term triangle pattern. However, to blindly state that GJ is bullish at this level (without further data) is simplistic in the extreme. IMHO, at 154.6 GJ met yet another significant resistance and will now begin a retrace back to the 137 area, although expecting a big...
So you have a bearish bias on GBPJPY right now? :S
  • #6,587
  • May 4, 2013 7:12am May 4, 2013 7:12am
[quote=Mpt;6657745]GJ under 155.5 is bearish.

great reading for the big picture...thanks for that post, man. I read about a policy change in London.....at the end of last summer....that makes me think "back to 251.11". ( at least)
  • #6,588
  • May 4, 2013 8:28am May 4, 2013 8:28am
g-u and u-j do not show bearish behavior; it's true that u-j is showing signs of hesitation going up, but g-u doesn't show any bearish signs yet (we just saw another higher high on weekly).
as far as i'm concerned, closest support areas are 97.37 (98.02) for u-j and 1.5532 for g-u. as long as price is above, i cannot have a bearish sentiment. as for resistance, u-j has an important level at 99.47. there is no resistance in place for g-u at this moment, just some fibs @ mid 1.57 and some old levels @ 1.59, 1.62 etc.

http://charts.mql5.com/1/475/usdjpy-...l-services.png
http://charts.mql5.com/1/475/gbpusd-...l-services.png

as for g-j, same as g-u. bullish until supports are taken. we've got minor @ 153.30, 153.14 - and i expect these to be tested again in the near future, maybe a couple of days; then moderate @ 151.48, again, to be tested over the next days/weeks... (if this one is taken then we go back to 146/147).

http://charts.mql5.com/1/475/gbpjpy-...services-2.png

bottom line is, bullish for now.


Quoting Mpt
GJ under 155.5 is bearish. UJ is now bearish, either short term in a triangle or looking for channel bottom (96.6), or medium - long term looking for a 23-38% retracement. GU is bearish as long as it holds below about 1.5610 ish, being POSSIBLE initial retest of bottom of long term triangle pattern. However, to blindly state that GJ is bullish at this level (without further data) is simplistic in the extreme. IMHO, at 154.6 GJ met yet another significant resistance and will now begin a retrace back to the 137 area, although expecting a big...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #6,589
  • Edited 9:38am May 4, 2013 9:25am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting Scrat
g-u and u-j do not show bearish behavior; it's true that u-j is showing signs of hesitation going up, but g-u doesn't show any bearish signs yet (we just saw another higher high on weekly). as far as i'm concerned, closest support areas are 97.37 (98.02) for u-j and 1.5532 for g-u. as long as price is above, i cannot have a bearish sentiment. as for resistance, u-j has an important level at 99.47. there is no resistance in place for g-u at this moment, just some fibs @ mid 1.57 and some old levels @ 1.59, 1.62 etc. {image} {image} as for g-j, same...
The problem is for both pairs that the high is not taken out yesrday.
So I think we first go more down to next support and then up.

No doubt that UJ will go through 100 sooner or later. GJ will slowly fight its way up to 163
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  • #6,590
  • May 4, 2013 9:40am May 4, 2013 9:40am
I opened a couple of shorts yesterday for the weekend under the basis it will go back down a while before shooting up. Friday was a nice profit taking day. Very slow week overall but it paid off - I had a couple longs held over a week before closing them yesterday. It's currently sitting right in the center of my channel therefore no big money involved until I have a clearer view from my charts!

Not on my computer so will post a chart later
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  • #6,591
  • May 4, 2013 11:45am May 4, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} pretty smart of yas to know to hold...That's what I'm doing but I have to break it into 4 shorter trades. Or it's "investing".

Nothing wrong with "investing" It makes up half of my trading style.. Plan on holding this trade until we hit all time highs...
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  • #6,592
  • May 4, 2013 12:51pm May 4, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} Nothing wrong with "investing" It makes up half of my trading style.. Plan on holding this trade until we hit all time highs...
Like 251?
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  • #6,593
  • May 5, 2013 12:22am May 5, 2013 12:22am
All JPY crosses are bound to rise this year so I see drops as buying opportunities because of the BOJ. Additionally GBP appears to be avoiding recession and USD is showing signs of ending there QE program.

I aswell think it will bounce around the 147.5 area if it does happen to fall this week like it did on April 14/15. Thinking that GJ will go to 137 is just far to low. For UJ that would be the equivalent of hitting 92 which is just unthinkable.

My Forecasts for end of 2013.

GJ: 162 - 163
UJ: 105 - 110

These targets can be shown on on the weekly charts respectively.
  • #6,594
  • May 5, 2013 12:54am May 5, 2013 12:54am
technically...sterling and euro starts in trouble. yen and usd is getting stronger...sooner or later.

jpy/xxx is in bottom zone....



Quoting supaH
All JPY crosses are bound to rise this year so I see drops as buying opportunities because of the BOJ. Additionally GBP appears to be avoiding recession and USD is showing signs of ending there QE program. I aswell think it will bounce around the 147.5 area if it does happen to fall this week like it did on April 14/15. Thinking that GJ will go to 137 is just far to low. For UJ that would be the equivalent of hitting 92 which is just unthinkable. My Forecasts for end of 2013. GJ: 162 - 163 UJ: 105 - 110 These targets can be shown on on the weekly...
not euphoria follower
  • #6,595
  • May 5, 2013 6:19am May 5, 2013 6:19am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Like 251?

Exactly
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  • #6,596
  • May 5, 2013 9:11am May 5, 2013 9:11am
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} Exactly
That was fun when the British interest was 4.5%, but now? It could take a year before 163 breaks.
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  • #6,597
  • May 5, 2013 9:58am May 5, 2013 9:58am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} That was fun when the British interest was 4.5%, but now? It could take a year before 163 breaks.

I got all the time in the world ... That account is just a buy and hold and we dont care the length of time, I still trade my main account daily
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  • #6,598
  • May 5, 2013 11:03am May 5, 2013 11:03am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} That was fun when the British interest was 4.5%, but now? It could take a year before 163 breaks.
THOSE were the days! ~$25 or so in positive swap per standard... nam Nam NAM!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #6,599
  • May 5, 2013 7:03pm May 5, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting Scrat
g-u and u-j do not show bearish behavior; it's true that u-j is showing signs of hesitation going up, but g-u doesn't show any bearish signs yet (we just saw another higher high on weekly). as far as i'm concerned, closest support areas are 97.37 (98.02) for u-j and 1.5532 for g-u. as long as price is above, i cannot have a bearish sentiment. as for resistance, u-j has an important level at 99.47. there is no resistance in place for g-u at this moment, just some fibs @ mid 1.57 and some old levels @ 1.59, 1.62 etc. {image} {image} as for g-j, same...
Scrat, how can you be bullish GU?

About 156.00 -156.10 it hits 3 resistances on top of each other.

- The top of the channel
- The 50% fib from Jan 01 13
- The down sloping internal trend line starting at 09-21-12
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-d1-oanda-corporation 03-05.png Size: 46 KB
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  • #6,600
  • May 5, 2013 7:13pm May 5, 2013 7:13pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Scrat, how can you be bullish GU? About 156.00 -156.10 it hits 3 resistances on top of each other. - The top of the channel - The 50% fib from Jan 01 13 - The down sloping internal trend line starting at 09-21-12 {image}
So let's go past those resistances and then I will become bullish.

For now I'm bearish!
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