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AUD/USD

  • #57,961
  • May 3, 2013 11:19pm May 3, 2013 11:19pm
Quoting J.Clinton
{quote} Exited my Long on 1.0315. Will stand aside for now, might turn short on a price advance today or wait to long on pullback next week.
TP 1.0424
  • #57,962
  • May 3, 2013 11:45pm May 3, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting nolagator
{quote} Everyone on here was talking shit. Telling me I had a lot to learn and telling me my argument was flawed when I said it was time to get long after the huge drop in price. Where'd everybody go? Did you have to work your shift at Waffle House or something? That's where selling after a drop in price get you.

Everyone on here? I only seen one person bro
Money never sleeps...
  • #57,963
  • May 5, 2013 1:12am May 5, 2013 1:12am
Quoting diggo
1.022x was well respected in February, we had a few cracks at it before it broke. Bears want 1.03. Possibly higher.. I won't be shorting again until we get there.
Ok normal bear bounce reached @ 1.03. We also have a larger LM at 1.031.

Now, I haven't entered any shorts yet.. because we still have the normal bounce for larger bears unsatisfied. This one is from a couple of weeks ago. I was waiting for 1.0401 to enter my larger short orders. We didn't quite make it, 1.0385 was the top. Normally we would go to 1.401 before we go lower.. Therefore may not be worth risking a short at the current level.

Will be a killer r/r short at 1.04 though. I will probably wait.
  • #57,964
  • Edited 10:53am May 5, 2013 1:38am | Edited 10:53am
Also we have a min. target at 1.02825 on a smaller TF. This is a normal bull bounce. If you were looking to long, that would be a good place to look. Or if you're short currently, might be a good place to close.
  • #57,965
  • Edited 9:14am May 5, 2013 8:57am | Edited 9:14am
pending buys
1.020 19 18 17
2 lot each

Advantage of limit buys you can set and forget about it and most importantly if it spikes down on some manipulation (stop hunts,news ) you will get triggered at
optimum price.
Do I think it will go there? Yes that is why orders are placed but it could be next week or week after but I am certain we will go below 20 before reaching 40 and above.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #57,966
  • May 5, 2013 11:21am May 5, 2013 11:21am
Quoting Davit
pending buys 1.020 19 18 17 2 lot each Advantage of limit buys you can set and forget about it and most importantly if it spikes down on some manipulation (stop hunts,news ) you will get triggered at optimum price. Do I think it will go there? Yes that is why orders are placed but it could be next week or week after but I am certain we will go below 20 before reaching 40 and above.
Well nothing is "certain" in forex.

Below 1.022 voids the need to go back to 1.04 in the short term. Where is your SL?

PS: I'm not endorsing anyone to buy or sell. I'm simply highlighting where the normal bounces will be..

No harm in setting my short orders at 1.04. If it doesn't trigger.. No money lost. I wait for next setup. All I care about is r/r and good MM
  • #57,967
  • May 5, 2013 11:54am May 5, 2013 11:54am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Well nothing is "certain" in forex. Below 1.022 voids the need to go back to 1.04 in the short term. Where is your SL? PS: I'm not endorsing anyone to buy or sell. I'm simply highlighting where the normal bounces will be.. No harm in setting my short orders at 1.04. If it doesn't trigger.. No money lost. I wait for next setup. All I care about is r/r and good MM
I agree with you on being "certain" slip of tongue
green pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #57,968
  • May 5, 2013 5:34pm May 5, 2013 5:34pm
Looking for a long around 1.0265 if we can touch down there this session.

If we just go up from here I'm going to scrap the order.
  • #57,969
  • May 5, 2013 8:35pm May 5, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting CNTrader
Hey Aussie traders her is a little Harmonic analysis on 15m chart Im currently involve with and will add to if we actually get to the bat before I bank on the butterfly. Enjoy, make a great day and may we all make bank!! {image}
Aud/Usd Target 1 attained on butterfly pattern posted Friday. Stops rolled to break even on remaining. Make a great week traders and may we all continue to make bank
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 15m.gif Size: 80 KB
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #57,970
  • May 5, 2013 8:45pm May 5, 2013 8:45pm
Quoting diggo
Also we have a min. target at 1.02825 on a smaller TF. This is a normal bull bounce. If you were looking to long, that would be a good place to look. Or if you're short currently, might be a good place to close.
Target hit. Trying a sneaky small long at 1.0279, only giving 10 pips.

See if we can reach the normal bear bounce to 1.04. Risk/reward here 1:12
  • #57,971
  • May 5, 2013 9:32pm May 5, 2013 9:32pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} Target hit. Trying a sneaky small long at 1.0279, only giving 10 pips. See if we can reach the normal bear bounce to 1.04. Risk/reward here 1:12
Not sure I understand why you are still expecting a bounce to 1.04. Looking at a 4 or 5 hr chart I see a bearish trend and fibs from the 1.0582 high to the 1.0221 low suggest 1.04 would be around the 50% pullback level, yet as I understand 38.2 & 61.8% are more important fibs. Having gotten to 1.0385 on pullback is near enough in my opinion. From here tomorrow's RBA decision is likely to determine whether we see 1.0220 broken or price head back up. In next month or so the most likely way for 1.04 to be reached but bearish trend maintained would be for RBA to keep rates unchanged but US fiscal cliff to weigh on the market. (Assuming that the most recent info I am aware of, being delay part of the decision to 18th May is still the case, noting that their kick the can down the road attitude is likley to be either repeated or make this discussion that much more difficult.)

Others' thoughts welcome.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,972
  • May 5, 2013 10:19pm May 5, 2013 10:19pm
short at 1.0288,tp 1.0250, and maybe 1.0225
  • #57,973
  • May 6, 2013 1:12am May 6, 2013 1:12am
Quoting profit taker
short at 1.0288,tp 1.0250, and maybe 1.0225
why do you think Aussie is short especially this week, we are expecting + trade balance from Australia, +trade balance from China, holding interest rate from Australia, CPI more than 2 percent from China and all are coming in this week while one of them is big enough to drive the pair to 1.04 so I don' know how you read your chart but you had better care about basic fundamental factors.
  • #57,974
  • May 6, 2013 1:15am May 6, 2013 1:15am
Quoting dab
{quote} Not sure I understand why you are still expecting a bounce to 1.04. Looking at a 4 or 5 hr chart I see a bearish trend and fibs from the 1.0582 high to the 1.0221 low suggest 1.04 would be around the 50% pullback level, yet as I understand 38.2 & 61.8% are more important fibs. Having gotten to 1.0385 on pullback is near enough in my opinion. From here tomorrow's RBA decision is likely to determine whether we see 1.0220 broken or price head back up. In next month or so the most likely way for 1.04 to be reached but bearish trend maintained...
Hi Dab,

I may be right, I may be wrong. Last week I was thinking along the same lines as yourself.. We just fell short of my large sell orders at 1.04.. However, close enough is not always good enough. More often than not we go back to the mid, it's like a magnet. Doesn't mean always though. In fact I'm leaning more towards your side.

The fact is, I had a 1:12 r/r here. That's all that matters. It onky needs to happen once out of 10 to be profitable. Stops are at b/e now so it's a free ride anyway.

I am the biggest of bears on AUD. doesn't mean I'll only bet in one direction though. I only bet big when going short though.

The retrace to 1.031 tells me we may have done enough to have another crack at 1.022. Im hopring we can get a higher price to short big this week
  • #57,975
  • May 6, 2013 1:41am May 6, 2013 1:41am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Hi Dab, I may be right, I may be wrong. Last week I was thinking along the same lines as yourself.. We just fell short of my large sell orders at 1.04.. However, close enough is not always good enough. More often than not we go back to the mid, it's like a magnet. Doesn't mean always though. In fact I'm leaning more towards your side. The fact is, I had a 1:12 r/r here. That's all that matters. It onky needs to happen once out of 10 to be profitable. Stops are at b/e now so it's a free ride anyway. I am the biggest of bears on AUD. doesn't...
Sounds like you have it pretty well figured with your risk reward etc and think similar to myself in terms of more downside risk than upside potential but still having willingness to trade both ways. Don't get me wrong I think we will see 1.04 again, it's just it's more likely that when we do the downtrend will have finished (for now). Personally my big shorts will only take place above 1.05.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #57,976
  • May 6, 2013 2:15am May 6, 2013 2:15am
Quoting holmes
{quote} why do you think Aussie is short especially this week, we are expecting + trade balance from Australia, +trade balance from China, holding interest rate from Australia, CPI more than 2 percent from China and all are coming in this week while one of them is big enough to drive the pair to 1.04 so I don' know how you read your chart but you had better care about basic fundamental factors.
I shorted aus/usd becos of the poor aussie retial sales m/m and also 1hr and 15 min chart showed weakness of trend. currently i am already profit 20 pips and still holding. Everyone has different views of the chart, I just simply follow the flow and not enter base on expectation. Hope I have answer to your question. Good luck.
  • #57,977
  • May 6, 2013 3:15am May 6, 2013 3:15am
Today may break 1.0220 IMO very strong selling all day. No reason to be long as it is still to risky. I am still holding all my shorts from the other day and put some more on Friday at 1.0306. TP open
  • #57,978
  • May 6, 2013 3:16am May 6, 2013 3:16am
Quoting profit taker
short at 1.0288,tp 1.0250, and maybe 1.0225
I had reached my first target profit. sell half at 1.0248 and let the rest continue to 1.0250. Re-edjust my SL from 1.0316 to 1.0290. With the recent bad economic data from china, and RBA economic policy decision tomorrow, there are reports on some talking coming from Australian authorities on how a strong Aussie may harm economy and export, investors are not in a rush to buy. Now it has break below 1.250, i forsee it will favour a downtrend acceleration with 1.0250 at sight.
  • #57,979
  • May 6, 2013 3:33am May 6, 2013 3:33am
sorry ,typo error , should be 1.02250.
  • #57,980
  • May 6, 2013 4:29am May 6, 2013 4:29am
should I take my profit now as USD/JPY is coming down fast now ? May not be good for downtrend of aus/usd.
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