Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

Hi Golfer

I agree we need a bounce (and should get a tradable one) but I dont think it will be substantial compared to the recent fall. We will ultimately break through support and head for 2.0. As ypu always say when things can be covered anymore we would get a collapse

Olu

Dollar Index

GCSI Commodity Index

UsdJpy

AudJpy

Gold

Weekly Oats

Why am I looking at this commodity you ask? Why not soybeans or corn? The answer is simple a long time ago I learnt that there was a saying in the grain pits which goes something like this ' Where oats go so do all the other grains'. So since then I always monitored oats.

Oats in my opinion has put in a top. Check out the massive arrowed bearish candle. On the daily chart it showed as a gap - an island reversal pattern. The chart also shows substantial price activity around 405. We broke down throught the support and this last week this level has smacked price down again. A break of the uptrend line will support my bearish view

Hi Olu, I just found your thread and I am interested to follow you. Right now I am just like when you started the thread: trying to develop a way to trend trade the daily charts in forex. Will try to read all your posts before I post mine. Cheers

Hi Rehab.

Thanks for coming to the thread. Cant wait to read from you

Olu

OK, just to share the trade I plan for for tomorrow. I am waiting for GU to retrace till 1.541 area of support and if it holds will look on the 4H chart for an entry signal to go long targeting TP1 1.544 and TP2 1.564-1.57. The reasons IMHO are: 1) the strong bull momentum, 2) the possibility that GU will test the base of the monthly triangle (black color on the chart), 3) 50 fib is there too, 4) from just reading the comment, economically ppl are happy that GU avoided, at least for the short term, the bearish movement (have no idea why) and at least till the NFP due this week there are no major economic releases from UK so nothing should disturb the bull. BTW I am looking also on GJ to join the bull after the retrace is over.

Hi, my awaited GU trade did not retrace so far so I deleted it and will wait for daily close.
I entered a long EU based on brake of the 4H channel. TP1 1.3174 and TP2 will BE when TP1 is reached and will leave it to run.

Cancelled my EU long on BE. Waiting for retrace on both EU and GU to join the bull.

Hi Rehab

I have been looking for a place to short the euro and the pound looking for reversion to the dowaward trend. I follow the dollar index as my indicator in forex. It is bad at the moment for the dollar index as you would read my thoughts in my next post. Gbp showed some serious strength and but it faded compared to the euro. In all this ups and down I am finding comfort in the commodities right now.

Olu

Dollar Index

Hi Olu, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I also see GU and EU choppy without clear direction for the moment. The move up for GU was surprising (according to my primitive TA analysis) and the EU is just waiting for ECB (which in my HO will not make a rate cut). I am also staying out of trading for large moves and I am only nippling on short moves by trading the 4H charts (I do very few of that-but just to keep me busy). I am keeping an eye on entering to join the bull for short moves only till Friday than I will prepare to short because I think the NFP will be positive. Accordingly, I also think the Jy pairs will go bull I will look to enter on UJ and choose E or G (according to which of EU or GU will show less bear) and will also go long (I might also end up not picking any of them and go long with AU although I hate the AUD). That also fits with what you see on the dollar index that it might touch the critical level of trend- direction but then might move bull if it didn´t move bull before. As you see I am making theories that is one of my problems I do not trade what I see I trade what I think will be!! I guess this is because I do not use indicators. How do you get the $ index? I have Alpari MT4 also but don´t have the $ index, could it be cause I have a mini account?. Instead I use the FXCM $ index which, by comparing to your post, moves in a similar way but not really (it shows range bound and we are approaching the bottom of the range -can´t post the chart now cause I am at work). I also use it to guide me a bit but not really cause it is not a true reflection of the $ value it is how is the $ in comparison to Eur, GBP and AUD. Thanks, it is nice to share thoughts and learn from others who already found their way. cheers

Hi Rehab

I have an account with Saxobank and they offer the Dollar Index futures. Before I had the account I used the charts on Barcharts.com and tfc-charts.com. Check out euraud. Looking bullish to me...

Olu

AudCad

Corn is looking like a good short based on this PA.
Pinbar at previous support as well as a gap......very tempting indeed.

I agree with you MPB. I am bearish the grains. Was looking for the closing of the gap before selling corn. That should take care of some seasonal weather issues that usually come along. Fundamentally there is a lot of corn about I read. Corn and all the soybeans complex put in a reversal today. I have a short in soymeal

Olu

Nice. I do not usually trade Corn but I have placed Soybean Sell orders due to the pinbar today.