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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #6,401
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:30pm Apr 24, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Weird untradable pa's. UJ going down, GU going up, GJ doesn't know what to do. What's the sign here? Staying out. Still have a little long @ 152.15, maybe wrong!
Or maybe right? I'm at be now
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  • #6,402
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:31pm Apr 24, 2013 5:31pm
Also, I've been watching this Sterling 4h channel for weeks now, and it's starting to look convincing that she's perhaps put in support for the time being.

Long-term, I'm bearish on Sterling. But I believe we can see 1.55-1.56 and maybe even higher before the next leg down.
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  • #6,403
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:31pm Apr 24, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Or maybe right?
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  • #6,404
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:34pm Apr 24, 2013 5:34pm
That's really funny, UJ AND GU going up now
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  • #6,405
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:38pm Apr 24, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting Geppy
Also, I've been watching this Sterling 4h channel for weeks now, and it's starting to look convincing that she's perhaps put in support for the time being. Long-term, I'm bearish on Sterling. But I believe we can see 1.55-1.56 and maybe even higher before the next leg down. {image}
Totally agree with you here, yesterday I wrote on the EU thread to KiwiTrada, why do you want for GU to break the greater upgoing channel downwards? I want to see 1.55 GU for a start. But KiwiTrada mostly plays shorts as you probably know.
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  • #6,406
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:49pm Apr 24, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Totally agree with you here, yesterday I wrote on the EU thread to KiwiTrada, why do you want for GU to break the greater upgoing channel downwards? I want to see 1.55 GU for a start. But KiwiTrada mostly plays shorts as you probably know.
Yeah, he's a good guy though.

Watching the 1min chart and looks like the most solid consolidation I've seen in a long time. Looks to be just catching its breath in a ~10 pip range and wanting to push higher. This could be a nice night if this keeps up.
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  • #6,407
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:51pm Apr 24, 2013 5:51pm
Great performance of GU here
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  • #6,408
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:10pm Apr 24, 2013 6:10pm
Nice, last night's highs are breached... quite well too!

Next hurdle is the most recent high after that at 152.50ish. After that... we could see a test of 154 or a poke above.
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  • #6,409
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:20pm Apr 24, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Not sure I understand this... can you expand?
if you look around at how equities, and bonds are priced and then look at the recent prints from China GDP to last nights Ger Ifo and this mornings Drbl Gds fail all of that in a 'normal' market is a reflex short for S&P500 and Dow...

RUT is priced as if American small businesses are on fire

look a bit deeper and Italy's equity index MIB is up 10% over the past 2 weeks and the Italian 10Year bond yields are down at 10 year lows.....on what?

may be wrong here on the call but a lot of the run up in equity and bond prices has been on speculation that the Japanese are 'in' the market already...

if i were the BOj (and am not obviously) or a Japnanese insurance co looking to dump/sell JGBs to BOJ to convert into 'other' mostly foreign assets i would probably be looking to get in at better prices than the slew of recent negative economic prints in the US and Europe/Germany indicate, not to mention misses by CAT and IBM...or the holes in the BRICs economies

the FED's month in/month out continuous Flow and the BOJs $80 billion per month may trump, but who knows......

prices look all over the board to me....unstable market not supported by reaity....my 2 cents
  • #6,410
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:23pm Apr 24, 2013 6:23pm
Quoting roro53
{quote} if you look around at how equities, and bonds are priced and then look at the recent prints from China GDP to last nights Ger Ifo and this mornings Drbl Gds fail all of that in a 'normal' market is a reflex short for S&P500 and Dow... RUT is priced as if American small businesses are on fire look a bit deeper and Italy's equity index MIB is up 10% over the past 2 weeks and the Italian 10Year bond yields are down at 10 year lows.....on what? may be wrong here on the call but a lot of the run up in equity and bond prices has been on speculation...
I won't pretend that most of this isn't beyond my scope of fundamentals, but I make sense of about half of it

I couldn't agree more with that last comment though... in fact, I feel it's been that way for quite a while now.
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  • #6,411
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:43pm Apr 24, 2013 6:43pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I won't pretend that most of this isn't beyond my scope of fundamentals, but I make sense of about half of it I couldn't agree more with that last comment though... in fact, I feel it's been that way for quite a while now.
totally agree and know you traded through the FC and all QEs........just think this thing is on steroids as compared to prior FED/ECB QEs/LTROs..

to be honest also paying attention to the extensive fraud at the 4 Irish banks which supposedly passed the stress tests

definitely not liking legislation from NZ already passed and proposed legislation pending in Canada that will allow 'strategically important' banks to convert liabilities to assets in the event of another financial crisis....endoresed day before yesterday to Parliament by Carney....next Gov of BOE

you got my vote.........looking forward to reading more of your works, and thanks
  • #6,412
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:31pm Apr 24, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting roro53
{quote} totally agree and know you traded through the FC and all QEs........just think this thing is on steroids as compared to prior FED/ECB QEs/LTROs.. to be honest also paying attention to the extensive fraud at the 4 Irish banks which supposedly passed the stress tests definitely not liking legislation from NZ already passed and proposed legislation pending in Canada that will allow 'strategically important' banks to convert liabilities to assets in the event of another financial crisis....endoresed day before yesterday to Parliament by Carney....next...
Yeah... I gave up trying to anticipate when exactly this whole thing will implode. All I know is that it will, and there will be a lot of money to be made if you're ready for it.

Love the fundamental aspect you bring to the thread, and hope to see more of it. Maybe you can simplify some of it so I can learn more.
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  • #6,413
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:36pm Apr 24, 2013 7:36pm
I'm totally confused at the moment, I'll wait for better times.
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  • #6,414
  • Apr 24, 2013 9:11pm Apr 24, 2013 9:11pm
GJ bounced off the 152.50 so I'm short now
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  • #6,415
  • Apr 24, 2013 9:27pm Apr 24, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting KillerWhale
GJ bounced off the 152.50 so I'm short now
lolz it works
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  • #6,416
  • Apr 24, 2013 10:22pm Apr 24, 2013 10:22pm
me too - got in about 152.35

usdjpy bouncing a little off 99.2 at moment and cable also.. see how it play out - chart shows reasons for it - may not play out but had a little confluence with resistance and trendline

Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} lolz it works
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  • #6,417
  • Apr 24, 2013 10:59pm Apr 24, 2013 10:59pm
I'm short UJ also
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  • #6,418
  • Apr 24, 2013 11:03pm Apr 24, 2013 11:03pm
one step ahead of you bro

figured with all these crosses they keep turning nasty - well at least on me they do LOL

at least usdjpy is more consistent..



Quoting KillerWhale
I'm short UJ also
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  • #6,419
  • Apr 24, 2013 11:10pm Apr 24, 2013 11:10pm
Shoot I suddenly find myself with 39 pips green on GJ short, 12 pips green on UJ and 12 pips green on Indian Rupies
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  • #6,420
  • Apr 24, 2013 11:46pm Apr 24, 2013 11:46pm
Covered most of mine in the 152.30s and one at b/e (was hoping we'd go back up for more), but didn't have the balls to short. We're at support right now so I may be buying a bit soon. Heading to bed in about 15min though, so I'll see you guys in NY.
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