My Strategy Test Based On Cycles Study

Hi...

I am surprised that in trading world cycle studies are used relatively less with respect to other strategies. I want to test an idea in my mind which is based on cycles study. I am inspired by an article on Timing Solution software website. I wanted to find that article and reference it here but i couldn't find it again. When i find it i will share. Here are the details of the Strategy;

 

1. By using Timing Solution software i will find 5 dominant cycles on three different time frames. (1d, 1h & 5m) Software produces composite of these cycles and produces two projection lines. When these two lines starts to show same direction this will be the set-up of a trade. At this point i will use an indicator called Smoothed Momentum to see the strength of current movement. If Smoothed Momentum interpretation supports trade set-up then trade will be triggered.
2. To determine the cycles considerable time of historical data use (for daily and 1h not less then 10 years. However i have difficulty to have historical data for 5m time frame so for most pairs few months of data usually will be used). After finding cycles i will keep some testing period because i want to see that cycles are work or there is an inversion takes place.
3. I will also follow two astro cycles which can be helpful to determine the trend strength. First one is Composite Cycle of Geocentric Cycles of Solar System Planets, Moon and the Node. Second Cycle is Moon Geo Position which is in my experience very strong Cycle.
4. I want to make 1.000 trades with a real money (Demo account is boring. Small but real money motivate to keep on going) and review the results if I can survive and not bored (ok i have some problems of being patient- bad habit for a trader )
5. My trades will be intraday
6. Time Frames Daily, 1h and 5m i follow
7. Forex Pairs I follow: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/CHF, NZD/USD, USD/JPY and CHF/JPY
8. Exit Strategy: TP= 50 pips SL= 30 Pips Time Stop = One of Cycles turn Opposite Direction

Because i cannot reach my computer and charts every time in a day i can miss many chances in a day.

I first time try such a thing and i have some poor English. So forgive my errors.I want to try this strategy in a forum to keep discipline and improve it with feedbacks.

GOOD LUCK TO ME:nerd:

Better to start with a Quote of W.D. Gann who expanded our visions

"TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. … There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. … Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. … The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles."

Forcasting by Time Cycles Course

EUR/USD



Daily Chart:
Cycles Trend: Down
Strength: Weak
1h Chart :
Cycles Trend: Not Clear
Strength: -

5m chart is not clear for me today. 1h chart and Daily chart turns to buy position after March 30.

AUD/JPY



Very short time buying opportunity i dont know it worth trying between 22:20 - 22:40 UTC+2 today

NZD/USD

I haven't got 5 m data yes but daily trend downside and 1h cycle alarm possible top around 13:00 - 13:30 UTC+2

eur/gbp

# 1:
EUR/USD Buy @1.2817
TP : 50 pips
SL: 30 pips
Time Stop: March 29, 2013 0:00 UTC+2

usd/cad

eur/jpy

These are the last charts of the day

GBP/CHF

# 2
AUD/JPY Long @ 98.073
# 3
EUR/GBP Long @0.8406
# 4
EUR/JPY Long @120.389

Daily EUR/USD


EUR/USD composite of most dominant 5 cycles. Both of the composite lines show down movement.



Second chart is based on astro movements.
Pink lines is the composite of most dominant astro cycles.
Red line is top/down index where the top or bottoms of this index bring top and bottoms for price
Green line is strong movement index where it shows the possibility of the strong movements

Same charts for 1h TF with smaller cycles and shorter term planetary effect

EUR/GBP


No clear direction while one cycle up and other is down on daily TF

Astro Cycles composite predicts a possible bounce (Pink Line)
April 4 is a possible turning date as we see from turning point index (Red Line)

Shorter Term Astro Cycles Composite is on the opposite direction with Longer term cycle. So expected bounce on Daily can be weaker then expected.

Will watch what will happen and learn lessons from observations.:nerd:

Eur/Usd today moved parallel to both my daily and hourly astro caycles composites. But this movement is not parallel to dominant fixed cycle. Before turning its face up Euro triggered my Stop Loss when i was in deep sleep

EUR/USD


My daily astro cycle predicts further bullish movement (pink line on first chart) while fixed cycles are less clear and they are more bearish.



After daily charts review 1H charts more clear to make trade setups. Pink line on first charts predicts higher prices until April 3 first hours of the London season. Fixed Cycles predicts a swing bottom which can occur in Asian season and if this occur I want to open long trade when i get up in the morning (UTC+2)

After stopped out on the edge of reversal I decided to lower my stakes and expand my SL to 100 pips and TP to 150 pips to keep Equity Risk Ratio manageable.

As it predicted by shorter term fixed cycle on the first chart (blue line) and astro cycle composite (pink in second chart) a bounce occurred. In second chart red line which represents turning points index have a turn on April 3 which can be the end of bounce but for details need to look hourly chart below.


Shorter term astro cycles shown with pink line on first chart shows downward price movement. Strong up/down movement index which is shown by green line on first chart. Bearish divergence on Smoothed Momentum indicator warns for a possible turn soon. If there is not a rally occur until the middle of London Season i close my long and I will consider to open a short trade.

#5
Long EUR/USD @1.28344
TP: 1.2984
SL: 1734
Time Stop: April 3, 2013 ~12:00 GMT+2

I did not share intraday astronomical/astrological cycles composite line chart however when i see the picture below i am rather surprised. I hope the correlation below continues and enable us for better entrance points

EUR/USD

I will not update daily chart because there was not a considerable change in big picture. 1h & 5m charts are ok to have an idea for tomorrow.

1h Astro

1h Fixed

5m Astro


My long set-up at first glance was not bad point to enter but price development so far not bright. In Asian season i expect some bullish movement.

GBP/USD

Daily Astro


Long term cycles predicts a correction until May (Pink line)

Hourly Astro

Mid term cycles shows down movement until Friday (Pink Line)

Hourly Fixed



5m Astro



For now I i am tend to stay away from this market until Friday morning and later will try to look for a long set-up

EUR/GBP

1h Astro


1h Fixed


After London season open i will look for short trade set-up