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what you really want to know in forex market at this point? 17 replies

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Give me premise or give me death.... 15 replies

Pivot point reference point? 7 replies

Attachments: At What Point Do You Give Up On Forex
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At What Point Do You Give Up On Forex

Quoting endroute
Spoiler Alert: the key is to have enough experience to be able to effectively apply them at the right times.
Well said, many of the systems i have seen on this site actually work well by simply knowing when to trade and when not to. This is one thing that no book or person can teach you, perhaps a good mentor can reduce the learning curve but the odds of finding one are very slim.
forex is not for everyone
if you feel for you,,,, just do it,,
if you feel not for you ,,then stop it,,

every people have each talent
There were good at singing
There are reliable in terms of teaching
There are hobby sewing
there are reliable to carry the ball
there is who is good in business
There are clever heal
there are understands the law
There are clever shooting
etc ,,,,etc,,,, etc,,,,


reminds me of a poem :::
Desiderata
Go placidly amid the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence.
As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and ignorant; they too have their story.
Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexations to the spirit.
If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain and bitter;
for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.
Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans.
Keep interested in your career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.
Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery.
But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals;
and everywhere life is full of heroism.
Be yourself.
Especially, do not feign affection.
Neither be critical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is as perennial as the grass.
Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth.
Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with imaginings.
Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness. Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself.
You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars;
you have a right to be here.
And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be,
and whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul.
With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy.
© Max Ehrmann 1927


salaam
Quoting endroute
There are lots of excuses in this thread that people use to say trading forex is impossible, there are no volumes, the market changes ([email protected]%* price goes up, price goes down thats it end of story), its to volatile, its not volatile enough, central bank interfere (yah so do the big boys when trading stocks) blah blah blah. The reality is that most of the people posting on this thread or in this forum for that matter have not been trading for more than a couple of years at most and really still don't have the experience necessary, if you are going...




http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/...erfect/3611212
i d say it is more time one follows the markets and finding the reasons, confirming etc, rather than hours. I needed 15 years and around 10k hours. And yes, I am considerably above average IQ.

Identifying what method to use when, is critical. To be able to do that one needs to understand structure of the market. To decode structure one needs significant IQ & ability to think outside the box. One that says IQ is not needed, will run out of luck. One that uses IQ will adopt & survive & prosper.

Feel free to bet against me
Yeah there is NOT ONE instrument that has ALL OF these factors all COMBINED. Yes, the stock market can be manipulated by the big boys and it's volatile BUT it has volume that can give you a clue of what's going on AND it's not affected as much by the Monetary Policies. Yes, Futures market is affected by the commodities price BUT it has volume. That's why Spot FX is harder than any instrument out there is because it can be affected by ALL of these factors at any time and you never know which one(s) you are going to be hit with. Those are not excuses but hard cold facts.

Markets sentiments change but primitives don't. Everybody knows that BUT the hard part is HOW do you tell the sentiments from the primitives? HOW do you know when people are buying and selling and when they are not? Sometimes they buy just to fake a breakout when they are actually selling. Sometimes they are buying for real. HOW do you tell them apart? The purpose of a trading system or strategy is to distinguish sentiments from primitives according to certain criterias based on observations of the market. But what if the market changes so much that the criterias that were established before become obsolete? This is what makes Forex trading difficult is because the market is so dynamic that it changes so much that it constantly renders criterias that trading systems/strategies are based on obsolete so fast. And you have to start all over again. Forex trading is challenging not because traders do not follow the fundamental laws of trading, buy low, sell high; it's because you cannot tell accurately always where and when is the low and where and when is the high.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
Quoting Forexia
There is NOT ONE other financial instrument that is affected by the fundamentals AND monetary policy AND stock market AND Bond yield AND commodities prices AND political events plus market manipulations a.k.a central bank interventions. Any of these factors can send your positions going into a tailspin and your profit onto a south train.
Agreed, that's a good list.

Quoting Forexia
On top of that, we have to deal with unscrupulous FX brokers that requote the price, manipulate the spread, hunt the stop, delay execution, reject order, refuse to give back money all in the name of Forex is traded OTC.
Which br0kers have you had problems with?
Quoting Forexia
Well Forex is one of the hardest, if not the hardest instrument to trade because it's so dynamic; it changes all the time. Once you figurered out something, it changes on you and you have to start all over again. And each currency pair is unique in its own way and the same strategy that works for one pair does not work for another. And at the same time the Forex market is affected by so many different factors across so many segments of the market. There is NOT ONE other financial instrument that is affected by the fundamentals AND monetary...
"Can" send your positions going into a tailspin - that's why we control our exposure to the market if something isn't going as we expected it to. One of the things you're doing is making all of this way too complicated...take the weight of the world off of your shoulders and KISS. People who try to shuffle through all of the policies and news are setting themselves on a pointless errand; the markets rarely act rationally in terms of fundamental indications of where it should go.

There is a form of analysis that works across every market in the world, and I'll tell you what it is straight up - supply and demand. No other "method" is as logical as this very basic concept which is the basis of market activity. People buy and sell, and if you can identify where big orders are being executed at (where remaining limit orders are likely to be stacked), you can use this as an edge. Guarantee? No way, but nothing ever is in this business. Drop the funnymentals, the ascending sea scallop patterns, and all the indicators. For our purposes I find them to be entirely useless.
  • Post #288
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  • Edited Mar 2, 2013 12:14am Mar 1, 2013 11:57pm | Edited Mar 2, 2013 12:14am
Quoting Kanzler
People buy and sell, and if you can identify where big orders are being executed at (where remaining limit orders are likely to be stacked), you can use this as an edge.
Yes, everything ultimately boils down to trend strength, and key levels: whether the 'barriers' created by limit orders are voluminous enough to exhaust the thrust provided by the market orders that are driving price into them. If they are, then price stalls, and possibly reverses; otherwise, price breaks through to test the next level/zone. That's perhaps an oversimplification; but it's basically true.

I've had some success recently using bredin's 'II SupDem' indy to identify supply/demand zones, allowing low risk intraday entries.
Quoting Kanzler
People buy and sell, and if you can identify where big orders are being executed at (where remaining limit orders are likely to be stacked), you can use this as an edge. Guarantee? No way, but nothing ever is in this business. Drop the funnymentals, the ascending sea scallop patterns, and all the indicators. For our purposes I find them to be entirely useless.
IF you can identify. That's the key word. And that's what trading is all about: identifying trading opportunities. Once they are identified, trading is just click of a mouse button. The technical patterns and indicators are just tools and actually attempts in identifying these trading opportunities where "big orders are being executed", where the supply and demand are. They are NOT useless if you use them right and use them for the purpose that they are intended for. Because face it, price do NOT necessarily drop at "Supply" points and price do NOT rise automatically at "Demand" lines. And even when they do drop at supply points and rise at demand lines, HOW LONG are they going to keep going up/down? In other words, are they going up/down for real or are they just traps?

Trading is not just about supply and demand. Trading is identifying where the supply & demand is.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • Post #290
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:44am Mar 2, 2013 12:04am | Edited at 12:44am
Quoting hanover
Yes, everything ultimately boils down to trend strength, and key levels: whether the 'barriers' created by limit orders are voluminous enough to absorb the thrust provided by the market orders that are driving price into them. If they are, then price stalls, and possibly
reverses; otherwise, price breaks through to test the next level/zone. That's perhaps an oversimplification; but it's basically true.
Agree with 100%. You beat me to the post.

Quote
I've had some success recently using bredin's 'II SupDem' indy to identify supply/demand zones, allowing low risk intraday entries.

Good for you!! The only thing that I have about that indicator is WHERE do you exit? That indicator is REALLY good at pin-pointing entry points but where and when do you get out?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
Quoting hanover
I've had some success recently using bredin's 'II SupDem' indy to identify supply/demand zones, allowing low risk intraday entries.
I'm not familiar with that indicator but I haven't used one in a long time either. After writing a price pivot program in C (Kenneth Lee calls them "swap levels") I discovered very quickly that it is difficult to program a computer to see what you can see with the naked eye, although computers can pick some of it up. As someone with a computer science background yourself you already understand this though.

In my own research I've found that these zones have a lot of good logic and evidence to back them up as a real edge...the reason for their working is rational, and you can often literally see the order flow if you watch price interact with a level live, which is so often lost when you look at a graph in retrospect. It still takes time to develop the skill to utilize that edge correctly, though.
Quoting Forexia
The only thing that I have about that indicator is WHERE do you exit? That indicator is REALLY good at pin-pointing entry points but where and when do you get out?
I discussed my profit exit basics recently here. Although I look for tight entries based on M5/M15 candles, my trade horizon is H4 upward, on the strongest trending pairs. I'm willing to endure a large number of small losses, provided that the medium to large winners occur often enough to give me a significant overall edge.
Quoting Kanzler
I'm not familiar with that indicator but I haven't used one in a long time either. After writing a price pivot program in C (Kenneth Lee calls them "swap levels") I discovered very quickly that it is difficult to program a computer to see what you can see with the naked eye, although computers can pick some of it up. As someone with a computer science background yourself you already understand this though.

In my own research I've found that these zones have a lot of good logic and evidence to back them up as a real edge...the reason for their...
Agree that it's very difficult to build enough intelligence into an EA to allow it to 'see' what the human trader can. Although I discovered, in using my SR indy that software occasionally picks up levels (and in a completely objective fashion) that I've overlooked.

I'm slowly learning more about Sam Seiden's techniques, albeit through my own trial-and-error. Thanks for the tip about watching the price action unfold. I'll dig out an old simulator EA and give it a try, rather than simply viewing historical candles.
Interesting thread guys, which forced me to write sth here after a long time

FX (or any other asset) trading is a very tough game, I am quite sure that all of you were extremely excited in the beginning and ready to get very rich once. Imho, it is not that surprising, all these adverts (even on social networks) and web pages telling you that you can change your life (very tempting if you have a lot of debt and shitty job). It is telling you how wonderful it is to be a full time trader, you can wake up whenever you decide to, you can go to many vacations whenever you want, you can live at many different places and all you need is a laptop and internet connection. "WOW, this is it" you say.

Then you start to have a deep interest in that, you start reading books, forums, you start to trade demo (if you are lucky enough and not start trading live, or with some "honest" advisor). You are telling yourself that you are the one and in 1 year time you will start trading on your own. Ofcourse you already know how much money you are going to make, and what you are going to buy for it. You also plan to manage funds of your friends and family, maybe also random investors later on. Obviosly, you have already read about the importance of systematic approach from all these books and forums, so you are basicly backtesting all possible indicator combinations and still looking for the last ultimate filter, which will sort everything and add that fancy word "The Edge" to your system. Then you also try all possible systems from forums and very frustrated you find out that none of them works. Such a pity. Ofcourse after this experience you want to try it for REAL, because you think that it will completely change you, because you will take it more seriously and make wiser decisions. First account blown, and if you were not completely out of mind, you have lost only something really small, which couldnt had affected your living standards.

Few years passed and with very high probability you have not made a single buck with trading. You have already traded with many different approaches, like "price action", support and resistance, waves, and those bit luckier maybe discovered the importance of fundamentals in trading. Maybe you even have 5000k posts and 10+ vouchers, you look very wise on the forum, and beginners are PMing you asking for your systems. Your ego is too big, so ofcourse you are very profitable seasoned trader, as 50% of the forum claims to be. Sorry for this irony, I couldnt help myself, and it is one of the reasons I stopped contributing and reading in this forum (apart from that I dont see anything really useful here, or any useful market views).

Sometimes it is not a bad decision to GIVE UP I would say. The fact is that the probability, that anyone is going to make it in the long run in retail trading of any asset class is close to zero. Especially the way in which books and forums "educate" future traders is wrong. And even if it was not, chances are still very small. If you will spend many years with trading (meaning 5-10 or even more), if your approach is inteligent, and you are smart, you do have some chances (altough still small) that with experience you will slightly beat the market in the long-term. This is another fallancy, which retail traders do not understand, and that is the fact that you CAN NOT build a system or approach which has some crazy edge over the market, because markets are very efficient. You cant expect 50% pa performance, and if you have such, you are either lucker and law of big numbers will bring you back next year, or your risk management is wrong (i.e you are lucker as well), or you are the biggest genius in the world, beating the brightest minds from MIT, Cambridge etc who are working for hedge funds and big IBs. If that is the case I would suggest you to bring your track record there, and they will pay you 10 mio bucks per anuum (fair deal isnt it?).

Some people, who understood the thinking of retail traders have made some nice money in this industry (altough not with trading). I remember one "guru" with his orderflow trading secret, which he had revealed in his book (very expensive one). Altough in his book, there was nothing which I would not know or used before, but it was very wise PR trick which made him very nice money. I noticed that another rising orderflow "stars" are arising here, ofcourse offering some expensive courses. Another people started brokerages, advisory, mentoring, training, seminars and whatever as they probably understood that the cashflow there is much better predictable than in trading.

What I want to say is, that one HAS to take into consideration the OPPORTUNITY COST of getting the trading thing right, which is even very far from guaranteed. And you also have to discount possible future earnings. During 5 or 10 years time, if you put so much time and effort into anything else (e.g. entrepreneurship, university degree or whatever useful) you could possibly have even brighter future than spending days and nights in front of charts.

Please dont get me wrong, I am not writing this because I am frustrated former trader who had lost everything, I work in London in the City, for top global bank at the trading desk. I just want to help the beginners not to waste their time, and that is the same what I am telling to plenty of my friends who are asking me about it. You will dedicate all your free time to trading, you can even break the relationships, get frustrated and stressed, lose many years and get NOTHING. Unfortunately, this is very PROBABLE scenario, therefore it is very risky to rely on the small probability that you are the ONE who makes it. Is it worth it? You have to answer this question
Quoting katrooo
Interesting thread guys, which forced me to write sth here after a long time

FX (or any other asset) trading is a very tough game, I am quite sure that all of you were extremely excited in the beginning and ready to get very rich once. Imho, it is not that surprising, all these adverts (even on social networks) and web pages telling you that you can change your life (very tempting if you have a lot of debt and shitty job). It is telling you how wonderful it is to be a full time trader, you can wake up whenever you decide to, you can go to many...
Excellent post and something I wish every new trader would read. Not the most inspirational post, but definitely honest. I've been at this for around two years now and quite frankly it has consumed my mind for the majority of that time. I wake up, I want to study trading if I have the free time. I sleep, and occasionally I even dream about it. It is an intellectual challenge for me which I must solve. I would like to think that I've paid the majority of my dues by this point and that I've learned at the very least how this game is played; winning at it involves more time and experience.
  • Post #296
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:45pm Mar 2, 2013 2:04pm | Edited at 2:45pm
First, I just want to say it's us, retail traders, not by ourself but as a whole aggregate group, are the ones who are making the market efficient; we are the ones who are making EU spread as small as 0; we are the ones who make sure the global bank that katrooo works for can't charge an arm & leg for commissions and fees for exchanging currencies. The Big Banks would LOVE for us to give up so they can go back to the good o' days where they can make billions of $$ just on spread and commissions.

Quoting katrooo
You will dedicate all your free time to trading, you can even break the relationships, get frustrated and stressed, lose many years and get NOTHING. Unfortunately, this is very PROBABLE scenario, therefore it is very risky to rely on the small probability that you are the ONE who makes it. Is it worth it? You have to answer this question
There was once an examination of Oanda's client accounts done, I believe in 2011 sometime, to try to get an idea of how really profitable trading can be for retail forex traders. They picked Oanda, I guess, Oanda is one of the biggest fx brokerage. You know what's the % of accounts that were making money they find??? 25%!! That's ONE in FOUR traders making money! That's not a big % of course but it's not a small one either. And it shows we CAN MAKE IT!!! Yes, the odds of making it is small just like everything else. You can be a very good worker, but how many of us can make top general managers or CEO's?? You can be a very good actor or dancer, but can you become Brad Pitt or Mikhail Baryshnikov? The answer is no BUT that does NOT mean you give up.

Quote
What I want to say is, that one HAS to take into consideration the OPPORTUNITY COST of getting the trading thing right, which is even very far from guaranteed. And you also have to discount possible future earnings. During 5 or 10 years time, if you put so much time and effort into anything else (e.g. entrepreneurship, university degree or whatever useful) you could possibly have even brighter future than spending days and nights in front of charts.

And honestly to me it's LOT riskier to have spent your whole life studying something, or practicing and still end up being on welfare. Just ask all those university graduates with all their shiny degrees including MBA, ask THEM what is their "bright future"? If their future is so "bright", WHY did they start the Occupy Wall Street movement?? To me, their investment cost for their education, time, efforts, the so called OPPORTUNITY COST is a lot greater than the time and efforts that we spent on our research in trading. For us, at least we don't have to take out loans to study trading and get a demo account unlike entrepreneurship and university degree.

Quote
or you are the biggest genius in the world, beating the brightest minds from MIT, Cambridge etc who are working for hedge funds and big IBs. If that is the case I would suggest you to bring your track record there, and they will pay you 10 mio bucks per anuum (fair deal isnt it?).

There is ONE mentality that nobody gets with Forex traders. Forex trading is NOT just about making $$, I miean if it's just about making money, there are LOTS of other ventures that are just as or even more profitable than forex trading, why stick with forex trading with all those hard work and etc.?? No, forex trading is about the FREEDOM!! Being your own boss, answering to NO ONE, be everywhere and yet nowhere, for the very first time, life in our OWN hands!! Even if I DO make it, I would NEVER bring my track record to those Big Banks,, Hedge Funds and etc.!! I wouldn't work for them in a million years EVEN if they personally come to my door to offer me this $10 million a year salary!! WHY? Why would I go back to be chained to a desk working for others when I have worked SO HARD to break free?? FREEDOM!!! FREEDOM is worth EVERYTHING in this world!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
Quoting Forexia
There was once an examination of Oanda's client accounts done, I believe in 2011 sometime, to try to get an idea of how really profitable trading can be for retail forex traders. They picked Oanda, I guess, Oanda is one of the biggest fx brokerage. You know what's the % of accounts that were making money they find??? 25%!! That's ONE in FOUR traders making money! That's not a big % of course but it's not a small one either. And it shows we CAN MAKE IT!!!
To be fair, that was only for a certain quarter I believe. The percentage of consistently profitable traders is much lower by the end of the year.

Quote
We, retail traders are the ones who are making the market efficient; we are the ones who are making EU spread as small as 0; we are the ones who make sure the global bank that katrooo works can't charge an arm & leg for commissions and fees for exchanging currencies. The Big Banks would LOVE for us to give up so they can go back to the good o' days where they can make billions of $$ just on spread and commissions. Yes, the odds of making it is small just like everything else. You can be a very good worker, but how many of us can make...

I don't think there's a conspiracy by the banks to get rid of retail traders...the fact is that most of us don't know what we're doing anyway so we just add to their bottom line. But what you say about traders making the market "efficient" is something important which undermines the stronger versions of the efficient market hypothesis.
Quoting Kanzler
To be fair, that was only for a certain quarter I believe. The percentage of consistently profitable traders is much lower by the end of the year.


I don't think there's a conspiracy by the banks to get rid of retail traders...the fact is that most of us don't know what we're doing anyway so we just add to their bottom line. But what you say about traders making the market "efficient" is something important which undermines the stronger versions of the efficient market hypothesis.
Haha! You answered to my repost too quickly. I re-edited my post quite a few times to address the many issues raised in katroo's post. :-)
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
For all who dont say anything about "i will quit when i lose a LOT of money", lie or they don't, and will get eventually broke.
Quoting Kanzler
But what you say about traders making the market "efficient" is something important which undermines the stronger versions of the efficient market hypothesis.
Market can NEVER be truly efficient if it's concentrated in only the hands of a few. True market efficiency is only achieved when the market is in a state of Perfect Competition which we are FAR from but breaking down all the barriers and opening up the market to ALL is in the right direction.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
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