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  • #27,341
  • Feb 8, 2013 9:14pm Feb 8, 2013 9:14pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I prefer to use projection instead of prediction. IMO prediction is a fortune teller's job. I don't have a crystal ball to do so.

Well, I will let you borrow mine. Or just use the sentiment of your thread as a contrarian indicator.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,342
  • Feb 8, 2013 9:21pm Feb 8, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Well, I will let you borrow mine. Or just use the sentiment of your thread as a contrarian indicator.
Because some people keep talking bearish, I cannot be a contrarian all the time.
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,343
  • Feb 8, 2013 9:38pm Feb 8, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Because some people keep talking bearish, I cannot be a contrarian all the time.
Ok my friend, but I speak to the peak of sentiment, not to certain individuals whom are bearish all the time.

Good luck, be well.

Nice job on the EWC you posted here.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,344
  • Feb 8, 2013 11:15pm Feb 8, 2013 11:15pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-pre-emptive-north-strike-2013-2#ixzz2KMJsaA00

What do you guys think war would do to the Usd and the Aussie and the Yen?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #27,345
  • Feb 9, 2013 2:40am Feb 9, 2013 2:40am
Quoting forexalien
I will be the only one to try this.....I see no one dare attempt this first.... They would all look to be correction waves and no motive waves.....So ranging would be the correct answer......

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360298364 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1132451&d=1360298364)

I only see 2 waves in the weekly, the S stands for start of EWC, 1 ,2 and then start over.
I think you have just discovered AWP - alien wave pattern!
  • #27,346
  • Feb 9, 2013 6:19am Feb 9, 2013 6:19am
Quoting maximmm
I think you have just discovered AWP - alien wave pattern!
That very well could be, there is not enough information to go by on the weekly chart to do EWP, so I tried some AWP's instead.........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #27,347
  • Feb 9, 2013 6:23am Feb 9, 2013 6:23am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Yea but did he see those boobies I just posted in the gif image? Hehe

Ok on a serious note... I do think Elliot's principle is noteworthy and it's discovery is great. I just think it only makes sense in hindsight. When studying historical price on a chart it looks magnificent. You can see where to put all the big numbers and little letters. Now try doing it into the future. Different story.
These Boobies.......?
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #27,348
  • Feb 9, 2013 8:19am Feb 9, 2013 8:19am
Quoting GnarlyPips
http://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-pre-emptive-north-strike-2013-2#ixzz2KMJsaA00

What do you guys think war would do to the Usd and the Aussie and the Yen?
The possibility of a war at this point is limited to the mentality talks. The real players, the US and China, have to sigh off before two Koreas can engage a real battle.

If the tension is getting higher, the USD and the Euro may gain more strength than the Aussie and Yen. However, by using my reversed projection based on the Aussie and EURJPY medium term moves, I'd say this scenario is unlikely.
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,349
  • Feb 9, 2013 8:23am Feb 9, 2013 8:23am
Quoting maximmm
I think you have just discovered AWP - alien wave pattern!
You posted this message 5 hours earlier than mine. May be aliens look at wave principle differently.
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,350
  • Feb 9, 2013 8:42am Feb 9, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Well, I will let you borrow mine. Or just use the sentiment of your thread as a contrarian indicator.
Did you buy at 1.048??
  • #27,351
  • Feb 9, 2013 8:49am Feb 9, 2013 8:49am
Quoting mry2001
Did you buy at 1.048??
No that was 1.025. Chicken is usually good for 50 pips.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,352
  • Edited 9:03am Feb 9, 2013 8:50am | Edited 9:03am
aliens, waves, boobies, and simple math 2+2...

your thread is magic, DB

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5...7xwvo1_500.jpg
  • #27,353
  • Feb 9, 2013 8:57am Feb 9, 2013 8:57am
Quoting DaddyBear
It has been so bearish in this forum. I see the Aussie's next medium term moves the other way. Current chart indicates a turn around is imminent.
a/u.....several weeks ago noticed amyc had a target of .98 then reverse higher........no correlation with a/c either.......a/c up eow but probably over poor Canada employment print

a/u record longs COT recently...is that correct? i think

correlations breaking down across the board, imo.........maybe a new pricing regime evolving....au down, S&P up.......USDX up, Oil up, gold down

thought the devaluation in Venezuela interesting move too

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-08/venezuela-devalues-currency-from-33-to-6-30-bolivars-per-dollar.html
  • #27,354
  • Feb 9, 2013 9:13am Feb 9, 2013 9:13am
Quoting roro53
a/u.....several weeks ago noticed amyc had a target of .98 then reverse higher........no correlation with a/c either.......a/c up eow but probably over poor Canada employment print

a/u record longs COT recently...is that correct? i think

correlations breaking down across the board, imo.........maybe a new pricing regime evolving....au down, S&P up.......USDX up, Oil up, gold down

thought the devaluation in Venezuela interesting move too

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-08/venezuela-devalues-currency-from-33-to-6-30-bolivars-per-dollar.html...
I am pretty sure this is where people are getting 98-99 target. Pretty easy to see although does not make it right, necessarily. Some see this as abcde triangle, some do not.

I believe a lot of correlations are evolving now and this year risk on/off evolves into a new pricing mechanism.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audweekly.jpg Size: 71 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,355
  • Feb 9, 2013 9:34am Feb 9, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Mr. Scott
I am pretty sure this is where people are getting 98-99 target. Pretty easy to see although does not make it right, necessarily. Some see this as abcde triangle, some do not.

I believe a lot of correlations are evolving now and this year risk on/off evolves into a new pricing mechanism.
gut feel is yours is an astute observation......amyc ...someone i like to read for cross reference. pretty smart trader.

pattern looks similar to gbp/usd...........have traded au a few times past several weeks both ways limited success on that pair modest position sizes mostly involved with eu and yen crosses dec and jan

also record COT aud longs increase risk of possible unwind....RBA soon too.......the odd aspect in PA since advent of QE4 is the natural inclination being to dump USD with the FED flow running $85 billion per month into the primary dealer banks (plus the kickback of MBS interest so real number up around $115 or $120 per mo)...

obviously the yen selling has propped the dollar, but something else seems at work in this market...my 2 cents for what that is worth
  • #27,356
  • Feb 9, 2013 10:01am Feb 9, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Ok my friend, but I speak to the peak of sentiment, not to certain individuals whom are bearish all the time.

Good luck, be well.

Nice job on the EWC you posted here.

This is where you go wrong, Mr Scott. I'm only bearish when the COT tells me to be. I can be just as bullish when the COT tells me to be. Right now in the COT - the aussie is extremely bearish while the US Dollar is extremely bullish as is the yen. When we have COT setups on this scale a major turnaround will or is occurring. At a minimum I expect a nice sized correction on the monthly/weekly TF's and looking at the charts, its only in its infancy. You, my friend, seem to be 'bullish all the damned time'. The bullish sentiment is the aussie is still way way way too high, so this tells me we got a long way down still to go. I do expect a weak upside correction shortly before the next slamdunk on the bulls.

When the COT on the aussie turns bullish, I'll be a bull. But NOT before. The market has barely just begun moving south. It can still go much lower.
  • #27,357
  • Feb 9, 2013 10:05am Feb 9, 2013 10:05am
Quoting chiknthief
This is where you go wrong, Mr Scott. I'm only bearish when the COT tells me to be. I can be just as bullish when the COT tells me to be. Right now in the COT - the aussie is extremely bearish while the US Dollar is extremely bullish as is the yen. When we have COT setups on this scale a major turnaround will or is occurring. At a minimum I expect a nice sized correction on the monthly/weekly TF's and looking at the charts, its only in its infancy. You, my friend, seem to be 'bullish all the damned time'. The bullish sentiment is the aussie is still...

My friend, I get it, just teasing. You post good stuff here.

But I did lg it as posted. Then short, now flat. I tend to be bearish, been working on seeing the bull.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,358
  • Feb 9, 2013 10:07am Feb 9, 2013 10:07am
When the market gets done TANKING, the EWP folks will be back with their new revised EWP forecasts. Happens every time.
  • #27,359
  • Feb 9, 2013 10:10am Feb 9, 2013 10:10am
Quoting Mr. Scott
My friend, I get it, just teasing. You post good stuff here.

But I did lg it as posted. Then short, now flat. I tend to be bearish, been working on seeing the bull.

Oh OK !!! Thought you were hackin on me, there. Good trading, my friend.
  • #27,360
  • Feb 9, 2013 10:14am Feb 9, 2013 10:14am
Quoting chiknthief
When the market gets done TANKING, the EWP folks will be back with their new revised EWP forecasts. Happens every time.
As for EWP, I would say most were at least targeting wave down to 1.015, some to .98 or .99 depending upon their analysis and count. But the forecast is a big up at that point. How far? Far, with target contingent upon count.

We will see.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
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