Elliott wave outlook | Page 350 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Elliott Wave Counting with EG 2,835 replies

EUR/USD and other - Elliott Wave Analysis 21 replies

The Basics of Elliott Wave Theory 128 replies

Elliott Wave Gbp/usd 4 replies

(Euro) Elliott Wave Formations 43 replies

Attachments: Elliott wave outlook
Exit Attachments

Elliott wave outlook

Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #6,981
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:05am Feb 1, 2013 11:05am
http://www.thewavetrading.com/wp-con...X-MONTHLY2.png
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #6,982
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:11am Feb 1, 2013 11:11am
Quoting Mr. Scott
http://www.thewavetrading.com/wp-con...X-MONTHLY2.png
I see more correction to 1.350/70 then 1600 http://stks.co/q19f
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #6,983
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:12am Feb 1, 2013 11:12am
and after 1600 ta-da... 550
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #6,984
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:16am Feb 1, 2013 11:16am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Of course A was in 3 look at the chart and B a triangle, but cound be a flat also
Hmmmm no Luis, if 'A' is in 3 it has to be a flat or an irreg, (3-3-5), hence several of my earlier charts and a load of confusion as to whether it was a 5w instead, otherwise we should have corrected in 'B' much deeper...

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y20-01-13a.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #6,985
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:17am Feb 1, 2013 11:17am
Quoting Luis Carlos
and after 1600 ta-da... 550
Mostly agree my friend.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #6,986
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:19am Feb 1, 2013 11:19am
I believe we have to make first set 'W' and then 'X' can be the wedge, but does that not mean Y should be also complex (in two sets of abc) and not a single 5w count?
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #6,987
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:19am Feb 1, 2013 11:19am
Not sure if you guys follow AUD. Not sold on my count, but I am sold on the general idea.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audweekly.jpg Size: 74 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #6,988
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:51am Feb 1, 2013 11:51am
Mr Scott, not sure about the AUDUSD but I think your line chart is making the waves difficult to see. On the chart below there seems to be a larger triangle playing out from August 2011 with the triangle you identified perhaps a subwave. Seems this triangle still needs more time to play out...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_2013-02-02 02:44:48.png Size: 39 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #6,989
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:01pm Feb 1, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting venzen
Mr Scott, not sure about the AUDUSD but I think your line chart is making the waves difficult to see. On the chart below there seems to be a larger triangle playing out from August 2011 with the triangle you identified perhaps a subwave. Seems this triangle still needs more time to play out...

Attachment

I use lines to eliminate noise, I find see tl's and waves easier and tend to be more accurate imo, although I understand it it unusual as I trade off candles, long term chart off lines.

Longer term tl's appear broken.

Thank you for input.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #6,990
  • Feb 1, 2013 12:35pm Feb 1, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
I use lines to eliminate noise, I find see tl's and waves easier and tend to be more accurate imo, although I understand it it unusual as I trade off candles, long term chart off lines.

Longer term tl's appear broken.

Thank you for input.
Looking at the chart a bit longer, it seems there is a 5-wave triangle (a-b-c-d-e) started in August 2011 and that its e-wave is another triangle which is now completing its own internal wave c. Assuming this triangle goes to wave e during the coming weeks, there will be a thrust out to 1.15/1.20 right? Triangle or not, what;'s on the chart below is going up when the correction ends. Thanks for showing!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #6,991
  • Feb 1, 2013 2:59pm Feb 1, 2013 2:59pm
Ciao Luis,
are you talking about the SPX500 index or future?
Don't you think that it might go close to 1600 beore it crashes?

Grazie!
Marco


Quoting Luis Carlos
When the SPX500 hit 1525 is done.
  • #6,992
  • Edited 3:26pm Feb 1, 2013 3:16pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Not sure if you guys follow AUD. Not sold on my count, but I am sold on the general idea.
Aud/Usd Weekly EWC
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post6405560
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1359562401
  • #6,993
  • Feb 1, 2013 3:34pm Feb 1, 2013 3:34pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
Aud/Usd Weekly EWC
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post6405560
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1359562401
i used to buy the dips in the past 2 months - like your count, i have no count for it, but i also expect a bounce of the lower TL but i have drawn it different (from the LL on the left bottom of your chart over your C)
just do it
  • #6,994
  • Edited Feb 2, 2013 5:33am Feb 1, 2013 4:11pm | Edited Feb 2, 2013 5:33am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Aud/Usd Weekly EWC
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post6405560
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1359562401
Tim, I also have a different count on mine using a and b that gets me the same result.


However, I can see how what you have posted could be viable. That is why I posted, so anyone could analyze and discuss in pursuit of learning and understanding and see the moneymaking potential.


Thank you for your analysis my friend.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #6,995
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:33pm Feb 1, 2013 7:33pm
Quoting marcb
Ciao Luis,
are you talking about the SPX500 index or future?
Don't you think that it might go close to 1600 beore it crashes?

Grazie!
Marco
Index. Yes, I think that but first a pullback
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #6,996
  • Edited 9:10pm Feb 1, 2013 8:40pm | Edited 9:10pm
AUDUSD - wave e of the contracting triangle seems to be a forming a barrier triangle itself like on the chart below. Assuming that the scenario plays out as anticipated, we can project upside thrust out of the triangle to reach ~1.20. However, I am not familiar with this pair's price history and wave count so the time projection for the start of such a large move is uncertain.

The size of the move (in favour of AUD) implies USD weakness and it would make sense for the thrust out of the triangle to coincide with wave 2 corrections in the EURUSD and perhaps XAU and XAG. When can we expect this? Based on the apex of the wave e barrier triangle: 2 or 3 months from now. Such a distant ETA doesn't seem right in the context of the EURUSD chart and perhaps there is something else cooking up in the current AUDUSD correction...

Anybody have some longer term charts counted out?

Thanks for pointing out this great opportunity Mr Price. We can count and analyze and plan a lucrative round of trades should the apparent triangle, in fact, be the case.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_12Feb2013.png Size: 64 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #6,997
  • Feb 1, 2013 8:50pm Feb 1, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting venzen
AUDUSD - wave e of the contracting triangle seems to be a forming a barrier triangle itself like on the chart below. Assuming that the scenario plays out as anticipated, we can project upside thrust out of the triangle to reach ~1.20. However, I am not familiar with this pair's price history and wave count. Anybody have some longer term charts counted out?

Attachment
My friend is very nice That is 3. you got a V
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #6,998
  • Feb 1, 2013 10:01pm Feb 1, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
My friend is very nice That is 3. you got a V
Thanks Luis, as you confirm:

From EWP (p51): "A triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i.e. as wave 4 in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, or the final wave X in a double/triple zigzag or combination."

So if this triangle is wave 4, then we are anticipating wave 5 to travel approx. 160 pips. Also, I was mistaken before when I said the expected time window for the breakout is 2-3 months away. Again from EWP (p 52): "... often the time at which the boundary lines of a contracting triangle reach an apex coincides with a turning point in the market."

So, should this be the true in this case then 1) the breakout is imminent, 2) the top of wave 5 is approx. 2-3 months away, and 3) the reversal (2-3 months away) in the AUDUSD implies that downtrends in other USD pairs will resume then.

I think I'm getting ahead of myself (and the market!) here, but interesting thoughts anyway. I'll wait for my broker to finish maintenance and get the fib tools out on the longer term chart.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #6,999
  • Edited 11:33pm Feb 1, 2013 10:23pm | Edited 11:33pm
I wanted to post the following chart of the South Africa 40 index before, but it was an eventful week for everybody, so now might be a better time.

The price action has been relentless with a "going to the moon" mania over the past 6 months. This SA40 index is closely correlated to the DJI index and its strength is mainly from the mining, industrial, banking and retail sectors. Possibly, the fact that South Africa is viewed as an Emerging Market, recently joined BRIC(S) and has a 5% interest rate has made it attractive to foreign investors, thereby spurring the aggressive uptrend you see on the chart. The SA Reserve Bank is not applying any easing measures and the SA Rand is highly volatile.

Based on me following (foolishly or not) the EWI counts of major indices I have labelled the advance from the 2009 bottom as a ((B)) wave in a larger expanding or running flat ((A))-((B))-((C)) that started down from the 2008 top. In the middle of the chart there is a large (W)-(X) formation and the end of wave ((B)) at the top right. However, the old dilemma presents itself: the entire advance from 2009 could just as easily be counted as a single degree impulse which is now in the final stages of an extended 5th. The alternative red count is unlikely, but plausible. I would appreciate some comments from the forum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SA40_dly_2013-02-02 02:25:50.jpg Size: 128 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,000
  • Edited 12:40am Feb 2, 2013 12:17am | Edited 12:40am
Quoting venzen
Thanks Luis, as you confirm:

From EWP (p51): "A triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i.e. as wave 4 in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, or the final wave X in a double/triple zigzag or combination."

So if this triangle is wave 4, then we are anticipating wave 5 to travel approx. 160 pips. Also, I was mistaken before when I said the expected time window for the breakout is 2-3 months away. Again from EWP (p 52): [i]"... often the time at which the boundary lines of...
Venzen.Very nice.I like your analysis, but is about 1600 pips travel for wave 5.
9 traders viewing now