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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #11,501
  • Jan 22, 2013 1:51pm Jan 22, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting Hyperion
Look at the two ghost or Batman formations in the AUD/USD line chart. I overlaid it on the Dow Trans because of the obvious co-relation but it's interesting how the Oz can't follow the DT break up. I'm hoping it plays out like the last formation....
For different reasons I think that au is about to do a repeat of May 2010 as well.
  • #11,502
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:19pm Jan 22, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting amyc
For different reasons I think that au is about to do a repeat of May 2010 as well.
Ha! Yes, don't pin your hopes on a made up formation, that was more toungue in cheek that anything. I hope you are right, My main reasons for looking only at sell signals here is the extreme long only positioning as reported by CFTC and Deutche Bank's own positioning indices. AUD is as long as they all were last March... suddenly....
  • #11,503
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:35pm Jan 22, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting Hyperion
Ha! Yes, don't pin your hopes on a made up formation, that was more toungue in cheek that anything. I hope you are right, My main reasons for looking only at sell signals here is the extreme long only positioning as reported by CFTC and Deutche Bank's own positioning indices. AUD is as long as they all were last March... suddenly....
My hunch is a short sharp move to 98c before going on to make a new high. That is only if the high on the 10th Jan holds though.
  • #11,504
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:44pm Jan 22, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting amyc
My hunch is a short sharp move to 98c before going on to make a new high. That is only if the high on the 10th Jan holds though.
I agree, below is my favourite chart showing long only positioning. Wait for when they don't have their longs and then fill yer boots.
Anotehr analysis I respect is looking forthe unwind of the safety trade, we've seen the unwind of the EUR and Yen, hopefully comdols are next.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDPos.jpg Size: 175 KB
  • #11,505
  • Jan 22, 2013 9:39pm Jan 22, 2013 9:39pm
Hi Guys,

Just wondering if any commodity traders here? Anyway, this is what I'm looking at on Gold

While the Long term upward trend line is valid, a wedge/flag has been forming (Orange pattern) and I have a short term resistance zone in front of it (purple box). This is supported by a downward channel.

Feel free to feedback.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 23-Jan-Gold-Daily.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 23 Jan - Gold Weekly.png Size: 33 KB
Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #11,506
  • Jan 22, 2013 11:18pm Jan 22, 2013 11:18pm
Smart Money had been covering long & mid term EURUSD shorts with a gradual shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish since May 2012..
Sentiment have cross over from net bearish to net bullish with rising open interest for the 1st time since January 2011.. Looks like the Smart Money crowd are calling for 1.35~1.46 again..

AUDUSD bullish positioning at/near historical high with rising open interest but not at extreme.. Good odd for over-shooting up to 1.0700~1.0750 correlating with Euro 1.35~1.46..

Short term corrections down to 1.3150 & 1.0450 demand zones could inject additional liquidity prior to printing new highs for the pair..

EURUSD+AUDUSD W1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR vs AUD-20130123-W1.png Size: 93 KB


EURUSD CFTC COT 4 Years:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130115-4 years.png Size: 131 KB


AUDUSD CFTC COT 4 years:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD CFTC COT-20130115-4 years.png Size: 98 KB
  • #11,507
  • Jan 23, 2013 11:22am Jan 23, 2013 11:22am
GBPNZD, Weekly, 2013 January 23
CCI Divergence
Long @ 1.8820 (5 Lot), Target @ 1.9520
PO Long @ 1.8690 (3 Lot), @1.8580 (2 Lot)
100K Account, estimated Profit Target 2013: +25-40%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD, Daily, 2013 January 23.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #11,508
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:59am Jan 28, 2013 11:59am
Where is everyone! Saxon and Shahab8b always had amazing charts showing stuff that I had missed. There's some great action in the comdols and yen (obviously) atm, is there another room where they are hiding out?
  • #11,509
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:35pm Jan 28, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting Hyperion
Where is everyone! Saxon and Shahab8b always had amazing charts showing stuff that I had missed. There's some great action in the comdols and yen (obviously) atm, is there another room where they are hiding out?
read yours and Amyc's posts re A/U........she thinks quick drop to .98........what are you thinking, H?
  • #11,510
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:41pm Jan 28, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting roro53
read yours and Amyc's posts re A/U........she thinks quick drop to .98........what are you thinking, H?
I'm not sure of the speed but I totally agree with the target.
"Long Only" odd lot traders are more long than they were last March before the big drop.
We have completed a huge two year distribution/bell curve that looks so finished that any directional move for be a "go with" situation that should not retrace past the mode (about 1.0490 to 1.0530)
The Aussie and Kiwi are "safety trades" NOT risk on trades meaning last year it was safe to sell EUR, Buy Yen and Buy Comdols. EUR and Yen have unwound, next safety trade to do so could be the Comdols.

Having said that I am bullish China and Oz resource stocks so any 8%+ dip in the Aussie I'd like to buy.
I will simply watch the long only open interest, when they are flat, I'll "buy it all"
  • #11,511
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:05pm Jan 28, 2013 5:05pm
Yen Trades
Traded the cloud earlier on both of these and am out now. Am looking for the conf targets in red. Also, am looking for a solid close below the cloud to switch direction for another trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,512
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:12pm Jan 28, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Hyperion
Where is everyone! Saxon and Shahab8b always had amazing charts showing stuff that I had missed. There's some great action in the comdols and yen (obviously) atm, is there another room where they are hiding out?
Sorry, I get swamped from time to time and forget to throw my charts up. I had some yen trades earlier and a pound trade.I threw some yen up a second ago. Ill try to get on here more, but every time I think I am going to get a break in my schedule, something else pops up and I space FF out
  • #11,513
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:16pm Jan 28, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting Saxon
Sorry, I get swamped from time to time and forget to throw my charts up. I had some yen trades earlier and a pound trade.I threw some yen up a second ago. Ill try to get on here more, but every time I think I am going to get a break in my schedule, something else pops up and I space FF out
Ha! that's okay, I know the feeling. Thatnks for the time you put in. Yen trades are interesting. If it pulled back, maybe the Oz and Kiwi would get knocked hard through cross selling too. (here's hoping!)
  • #11,514
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:19pm Jan 28, 2013 5:19pm
Some ST friction to watch on AU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ST AU.jpg Size: 129 KB
  • #11,515
  • Edited 4:34pm Jan 30, 2013 3:41pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting Forexcube
GBPNZD, Weekly, 2013 January 23
CCI Divergence
Long @ 1.8820 (5 Lot), Target @ 1.9520
PO Long @ 1.8690 (3 Lot), @1.8580 (2 Lot)
100K Account, estimated Profit Target 2013: +25-40%
Cube!......gbp/nzd the gift that keeps giving, my friend.....took +224 plus plus plus on your call. point being, giving credit where it is due

u r 2
  • #11,516
  • Jan 30, 2013 6:25pm Jan 30, 2013 6:25pm
Nice trade forexcube... I was long GBP/NZD but only because I found a car I want to extract from the U.K. Funny how you make money easiest when you are not trying huh!

Speaking of cross's I post the CAD/CHF long term chart, bare and naked. Looks like things might get interesting / vertical maybe?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADCHF=R.jpg Size: 182 KB
  • #11,517
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:38am Feb 5, 2013 11:38am
watching this formation/close
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JJ.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #11,518
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:59am Feb 5, 2013 11:59am
Quoting Saxon
watching this formation/close
Ditto. Waiting for a divergence on 4H.
  • #11,519
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:02pm Feb 5, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Ditto. Waiting for a divergence on 4H.
EU got a last min push which negated my formation. Was looking for a nice round "spout" formation with a doji to confirm, but now we have something messy.
If EU can break this H1 fib and move to the next, there is a nice quick tight PPZ trade up there.
  • #11,520
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:11pm Feb 5, 2013 12:11pm
We got a nice LT Triangle forming on NU too
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nuwedge.jpg Size: 101 KB
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