Davit's Confluence Trading

I am reading a lot these days specially about Harmonics.
Currently Scott Carney vol 1
Very fascinating. He emphases repeatedly importance of .886 in harmonic trading and thought went in my head.I noticed price usually finds strong support just below Round number or above roughly .886 or 11.4% of RN
3310 or 3290 as an example

Looking for 618 retrace on Euro
C point could be 618 or higher 786 or 886
I have many limit shorts placed.2 already alive.Price so far hovering around 38.2 level.In harmonic trading shallower the retrace greater the extension

I don't think we're going to see the Euro break below its current range for a full reversal until after the debt ceiling (round one apparently) is "dealt with" and the problems with the Eurozone are once again the focus.

The markets in general have become unhinged from their fundamentals (I think ZeroHedge called it "unanchored") but I'm thinking (hoping) that the US debt ceiling "resolution" will be the reset button. If not, I believe we'll have to wait nine months for Germany to be in a technical recession before the markets remember that, oh yeah, the Eurozone is still in worse trouble than anyone else.

Hi bro
What do you consider current range.Thanks

Made another 16 pips on Euro total so far +27
I am going to sleep.I got pending shorts at 8380 NU 3360 3385 3400 shorts on Euro in case of spike up.
I would of taken more advantage of Euro but my account at MBtrading just would not take orders.Kind of pissed me off.Kept saying off quote
Good night or morning.

There is obvious bat pattern forming on Euro so I am anticipating more short direction until 3150

+60pips on Euro
I have 4x Shorts on NU and 2x AU
TP 8350 TP 1.0505
potential 250pips gain.Will hold on to these until hit the TP

Sorry, yes, I should have included that. Zooming in to the 4 hour chart for the sake of clarity, I see EUR/USD travelling sideways between 1.32625 and 1.34 until about February 4. I've got two sets of parallels of which I think the dotted set is predominant, putting support at 1.31750 on the 4th which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement and the support area of the previous consolidation that was broken out of at the beginning of the month. The alternate set has support at the psychological level of 1.32 on the 4th.



The BoJ has already confirmed their devaluation plans so I don't think there's any more downside for EUR/JPY or any Yen pair. I believe the Yen gains today were profit taking now that future devaluation is assured and Yen pairs will resume their trek Northward until near the end of March.

Ho bro
I like your reasoning which is in sink with harmonics. Do you use Andrews pitchfork? or the concept behind?
Do you trade Kiwi? Nice pair sort of predicable.I have 4 shorts on it all in profit from 8420 8405 area.
Regards

I hope you took profit on your Kiwi trades. It's reversed direction and I think the Kiwi, the Aussie, and the Loonie (in that order) are going for new highs as they are the strongest of the currencies. I don't like where daily RSI is for any pair at the moment, but hourly they have all hit RSI support versus US$ and the Yen around midnight EST.

update: Maybe you're right after all. I thought we were breaking a new high but it just didn't have enough steam to get there.

update to the update: I almost talked myself out of going long NZD/JPY, but it's back up there retesting the highs. I don't know if it will will break out but I'm waiting for a pull-back to reload. I missed my entry into EUR/JPY ...twice... but Yen pairs tend to bottom around 4am so I should get another chance to get in later.

USD/JPY is right at the junction of daily bull-channel support (not on the right computer to upload a chart at the moment) and 100% retracement of the move from midnight (EST) on the 17th as is EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY. CAD/JPY is from the 15th and GBP/JPY you have to go back to the 8th so as i can't imagine why the Yen would start gaining, I think all Yen pairs are ready to start climbing. NZD/JPY is the best strength versus weakness, EUR/JPY has greater range, and AUD/JPY has the greatest carry (barring the exotics).

Debt ceiling vote (to delay doing anything about it) looks poised to pass without opposition on Wednesday which will likely cause some kind of spike and reset so you might want to widen your stops.

...

I sort-of use Andrews pitchforks in as much as the parallels I draw usually coincide with forks. I sometimes draw forks on a NetDania chart then reproduce the parallels on TWS, but as often as not I already have trend lines I'm happy with.

Unfortunately, my trading platform (TWS with Interactive Brokers) doesn't support forks (their charting system is really behind the times), forks on NetDania charts disappear when you change time scales (I was in contact with their technical support and they were somehow unaware of this) and you can't save your technicals so you have to start from scratch every time you open a chart, and forks (and trend lines in general) on the misleadingly named ProfessionalCharts go altogether wonky when you change time scales though at least you can save your charts (although they have a bug where any techincal you draw on one pair shows up on all of them if they have the same price range).


p.s. I've got the subscription set to instant notification but I only get notices once a day else I'd have responded sooner.

BoC statements at 10am EST. The rate is unlikely to be changed but comments may imply weakness to encourage weakening the Loonie for the sake of exports, particularly with Carney moving on to head the BoE there is less political incentive to paint a rosy picture of the Canadian economy; however, the overall Canadian economic outlook is still better than the US, and with rising oil prices and increased ties to China I don't see further downside once initial market reaction has subsided.

Regardless, I can't see myself trading any CAD pair in the near future as none of them are optimal for strength/weakness, widest ranging, or best carry trades.

Update: Well, obviously was was wrong about the Loonie unless it gains overnight. I can't even remember how long it's been since it moved a full cent -- and because the BoC didn't change anything no less.

While I was making this chart the Yen unexpectedly fell hard, darn it. I was expecting EUR/JPY it to pull back from the median line at 118.50 when it stopped and sat there for a half hour and similarly I expected NZD/JPY to pull back as well. I'll enter when it (hopefully) tests the median line as support.

I was right and US$ did not co-operate with risk currency gains but I didn't expect it to be so contrary that you could short NZD/USD and long NZD/JPY and make money on both given the Kiwi is fundamentally the strongest component of each pair.

Yen pairs are virtually all at their highs and on a break above they will really start to climb, EUR/JPY in particular, and I don't expect a real correction or reversal until April (assuming seasonal Forex trends are maintained).

Market manipulation is getting out of control, with exaggerated whipsawing on nearly every announcement. It's gotten so I can almost count on a reversal 15 minutes after the initial move, but the kicker is even 50 cent stops get taken out which I imagine is killing anyone using sensible and safe trading practices.

...not that I'm advocating not using sensible and safe trading practices, but it seems to me that Forex trading used to be a lot more forgiving than it is now.

Hi bro
I did not take profit on Kiwi or AU because PA kept going up and I thought rather cut my losses early.Huge mistake!After holding both for 3 days I closed 8hrs early only to see both fall good distance.
Lets just say its easier to say on hindsight...but this happened to me way to many times.Correct orders wrong exist timing.
live and learn.

Doing my weekly studies.

AU possible corrective move to 618 fib at 51
It completed Bat Gartley and looking for buy opportunity.I will wait until its confirmed.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1359317532

EA is getting my attention as a prime suspect for major correction but I am waiting for AB=CD to complete on weekly.
My disposition is BEAR on this pair.

On Euro
I am short biased.I think despite of popular forum posters screaming 35-38 coming I think we could see 3380 at least before move up.

On cable.
Its due for retrace up and I will only look to buy after confirmation however if Euro goes down from current 3450 expect cable to drop further down.
My overall outlook is BULL
618 fib retrace is at 60.

Looking at EJ as ripe tomato to short after minister comments
"Economy Minister Akira Amari denied Japan’s new government is actively targeting a weaker yen, taking to the international stage to argue that economic policy is instead aimed at defeating deflation. Japan is “absolutely not deviating from global standards,” Amari told the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26. “I don’t comment on a foreign-exchange rate because it should be determined by the market. What we do is to implement policies.”

I am inclined to wait until 23 to short if it gets there.
Near short targets 38.2 and .618 fibs

UP 5% for the month.Short of my target 10%+
Have to make up that 5% next month or before this month's end.Took good hits last week which took good chunk of profits.I have to remain patient and selective on my trades.
Still struggling to overcome my BEAR nature.I just have a hard time buying in general.I aware of this in myself and trying not to create biases where its not on the charts.