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Euro/Dollar

  • #2,761
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:00am Jan 18, 2013 5:00am
EURJPY... 60 pip fall in less than 15 mins...
  • #2,762
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:04am Jan 18, 2013 5:04am
Just got filled on my highest EURJPY long.... YIPPEE

EURJPY has fallen 90 pips in 15 mins... USDJPY about 5 pips.... What a crazy pair...
  • #2,763
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:06am Jan 18, 2013 5:06am
Quoting Crassius
Just got filled on my highest EURJPY long.... YIPPEE

EURJPY has fallen 90 pips in 15 mins... USDJPY about 5 pips.... What a crazy pair...
OK... I'm done for today
I grabbed more then I expected, I start my weekend now :-)
Now I will only watch and enjoy
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #2,764
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:10am Jan 18, 2013 5:10am
Quoting halkins
Hi Crassius

For today, my target is combination of FIBO retracement and S/R at 1.33100


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Great Trade !!!!

Halkins is a Winner!!!!


  • #2,765
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:17am Jan 18, 2013 5:17am
Quoting Crassius
Great Trade !!!!

Halkins is a Winner!!!!


hehehe... thx
I like watching the markets when I am not involved in it.
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #2,766
  • Edited 6:47am Jan 18, 2013 5:20am | Edited 6:47am
Now I would watch closely at support line (RED) which holds strong at this moment...

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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1.gif Size: 25 KB
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  • #2,767
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:21am Jan 18, 2013 5:21am
I guess that's a false breakout from a failed triangle that gets completely rejected by the market....

I have one more EURJPY order lower near the extreme of EURJPY support... but I would be happy just to get back to the trend right now...
Attached Image
  • #2,768
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:27am Jan 18, 2013 5:27am
Quoting Crassius
I guess that's a false breakout from a failed triangle that gets completely rejected by the market....

I have one more EURJPY order lower near the extreme of EURJPY support... but I would be happy just to get back to the trend right now...
Hmmm...
I do not trade any JPY pairs, but from technical point of view it looks like a small rebounce is possible.
Support line holds price at this moment...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 32 KB
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  • #2,769
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:31am Jan 18, 2013 5:31am
Quoting halkins
Hmmm...
I do not trade any JPY pairs, but from technical point of view it looks like a rebounce is possible.

Attachment
I usually trade USDJPY not EURJPY.. and I have USDJPY positions on... but EURJPY has been hugely volatile and I just had to get some of that action.

Many pairs are so highly correlated you are really trading the same chart....
  • #2,770
  • Jan 18, 2013 12:22pm Jan 18, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting Crassius
Just got filled on my highest EURJPY long.... YIPPEE

Just closed half my EURJPY at 119.96 + 41 pips...

Hanging on to the other half, but decided to cut risk over the weekend....
  • #2,771
  • Edited 4:41pm Jan 20, 2013 4:30pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting Crassius
Just closed half my EURJPY at 119.96 + 41 pips...

Hanging on to the other half, but decided to cut risk over the weekend....

Stop moved to 119.30 just below the last swing low... if hit I'll still have +20 pips locked in....

My USDJPY should be safer as its much less volatile the EURJPY...

Disappointed in the sel off in early Asia though.... I really want to see these two go to their 61.8% retrace.....

EDIT: That would not be +20... it would be +41 in half and - 25 on half for a total of +16
  • #2,772
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:40pm Jan 20, 2013 4:40pm
USDJPY stop moved to 89.57...
  • #2,773
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:42pm Jan 20, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting Crassius
Stop moved to 119.30 just below the last swing low... if hit I'll still have +20 pips locked in....

My USDJPY should be safer as its much less volatile the EURJPY...

Disappointed in the sel off in early Asia though.... I really want to see these two go to their 61.8% retrace.....

EDIT: That would not be +20... it would be +41 in half anf - 25 on half for a total of +15
shorted uj at 89.90 tight stp..what is your thinking re correlation e/u and gbp/u?......wondering about the diverging prices not only for those pairs but also commodity curriencies agaisnt the Dollar

sold some Oil up here too.risky but tight stp
  • #2,774
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:48pm Jan 20, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting roro53
shorted uj at 89.90 tight stp..what is your thinking re correlation e/u and gbp/u?......wondering about the diverging prices not only for that pair but also commodity curriencies agaisnt the Dollar

sold some Oil up here too.risky but tight stp
I'm surprised by GPBUSD's deep divergence.... I'm looking more at DXY, which looks like short time USD strength before it finishes a triangle pattern... in which it is in the last leg (e) and the last swing in (e)'s three legs... DXY falls after completion of that pattern... leading to the EU strong period I think will see EU up to 1.3800 at least... with some pull backs on the way of course...

DXY completes it last leg up between 80.10 and 80/30.... from there it falls out of bed....

I think you are bold to short JPY into the BOJ's obvious massive manipulation of JPY higher...You're fighting a central bank, who isn't a real player in the "Market" and can't lose...
  • #2,775
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:51pm Jan 20, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting Crassius
.... I'm looking more at DXY, which looks like short time USD strength before it finishes a triangle pattern... .

The question for me is will DXY be able to complete its up move before EURUSD break 3250 support.... with my stop tucked some pips below to stay out of the way of a minor breach...'

I'm betting so, have no way to know for sure, but my position is sized correctly and I don't expect or need to be right all the time... Its a good bet the 3250 holds., if we even get close..... 3280 is firming up nicely....
  • #2,776
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:57pm Jan 20, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting Crassius
I'm surprised by GPBUSD's deep divergence.... I'm looking more at DXY, which looks like short time USD strength before it finishes a triangle pattern... in which it is in the last leg (e) and the last swing in (e)'s three legs... DXY falls after completion of that pattern... leading to the EU strong period I think will see EU up to 1.3800 at least... with some pull backs on the way of course...

DXY completes it last leg up between 80.10 and 80/30.... from there it falls out of bed....

I think you are bold to short JPY into the BOJ's obvious massive...
thanks for the compliment, i think? lol........it is a tight spec play, and certainly recognize the risks

what i find odd in the context of PA over the past several trading days is the diverging prices against the dollar......Pound Yen lower commodity currencies giving up against USD also Euro holding close or so it appears but JC Junker starting to bitch, and Cameron stepping up for a referendum with OIL and SP pushing at highs

if i am right the RR on yen long (usd/jpy short) for a correction is worth it, imo (appropriate position sizing in the context).....spikes are a risk too especially into the guts of the BOJ

another thought that crossed the mind here is that if/when the correction comes it will probably be very sharp..just a guess, but probably not a bad one
  • #2,777
  • Edited 5:10pm Jan 20, 2013 5:08pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting roro53
thanks for the compliment, i think? lol........it is a tight spec play, and certainly recognize the risks

what i find odd in the context of PA over the past several trading days is the diverging prices against the dollar......Pound Yen lower commodity currencies giving up against USD also Euro holding close or so it appears but JC Junker starting to bitch, and Cameron stepping up for a referendum with OIL and SP pushing at highs

if i am right the RR on yen long for a correction is worth it, imo
Yes you are right of course... the R/R is what matters most...

I know what you mean... the markets are odd these first few weeks of the Year.... I good friend and veteran trader I know even took a few days off last week, saying he was out of step with the market and had to take a breather to clear his head...

May be its all our imagination.... but I don't think so.... I think it is a lot to do with the JPY revaluation... and EURCHF as well.... I trade EURUSD be far the most in trades and position size, and those too other EUR pairs have been effected by both revaluations....

Correlations come and go over time... they wax and wane... and even reverse.... It will all sort itself out in the long run...

I know another who shorted JPY ( EURJPY at 120.00) so you're not alone.... I think you are both fighting upstream by betting down... if that make any sense...

Backed my USDJPY stop off to 89.47.... I want to give it a little breathing room... but am prepared to cut it off after that...
  • #2,778
  • Jan 20, 2013 5:13pm Jan 20, 2013 5:13pm
FX live reporting a pile of stops in USDJPY sub 89.50... right where I just moved mine...
  • #2,779
  • Jan 20, 2013 5:16pm Jan 20, 2013 5:16pm
EURJPY stop hit.... +16 on the whole trade.... Damn.. I had visions of cash registars ringing in my head....

USDJPY just got hit as well.... - 52 pips on that one....

Roro is away to the races.....
  • #2,780
  • Jan 20, 2013 5:21pm Jan 20, 2013 5:21pm
i totally agree with what you are saying.you make excellent points here from being out of tune to playing both sides of this thing with appropriate position sizing and risk mgt

it is a 'lance armstrong world' and so much manipulation from central banks and primary dealers then my best guess here is to use whatever experience i have had the privilege to learn from and use it carefully but still trade albeit with more modest positions sizes than in a 'normal' market....whatever normal is or was

one thing i am accutely aware of is the monthly FED fFlow and that cannot be ignored as a risk, imo

another point about posting here too as an exercise in refining the thinking; agree there absolutely, especially when there is a focus of thinking and mutual respect with some reasonable degree of latitude, and also about trading as a relatively lonely outpost

Quoting Crassius
Yes you are right of course... the R/R is what matters most...

I know what you mean... the markets are odd these first few weeks of the Year.... I good friend and veteran trader I know even took a few days off last week, saying he was out of step with the market and had to take a breather to clear his head...

May be its all our imagination.... but I don't think so.... I think it is a lot to do with the JPY revaluation... and EURCHF as well.... I trade EURUSD be far the most in trades and position size, and those too other EUR pairs have been...
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