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Attachments: Martingale... How to make it WORK for YOU!
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Martingale... How to make it WORK for YOU!

Quoting Dredding82
As i stated before....Get a bank or broker to show you theirs...and i will gladly show you mine....

There is no point in me showing off a live account statement when a demo will work.......for the purpose of a website to understand....
Why waste time demoing if you're guaranteed to make money for your efforts? Put your money where your mouth is.
Quoting Kanzler
Why waste time demoing if you're guaranteed to make money for your efforts? Put your money where your mouth is.
Well that is ignore for you.....I have already explained myself...if you can not understand why....then it just shows you are not a real trader and will never become one because you lack the understanding of operating your own business.....

But if your so willing to try and prove me wrong....why don't you open an account and try it out....Oh wait i just remembered..you cant make one profitable trade out of 12....Sorry it sucks to be you!
Quoting Chicky
OK. If you are so determined I give you one more option that may help you in martingaling.

In addition to trade amount, one can also martingale on trade size. We first go for 1 pip profit, then for 2, then 4 ...... One winner will compensate for all previous losses without increasing the risk per trade.

But I do not encourage martingale method.
Would you care to elaborate a bit more....
i just spent ages posting something and it disappeared duh
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
is it possible to have 12 losers in a row,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
Quoting billytt
is it possible to have 12 losers in a row,
if os , i dont think a person should be trading then
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
a simple strategy to the person who just got ignored, Trade a pair that has big spikes or trade us oil. Set a trigger about 20 pips away from current price and wait and wait and wait and when spike appears you may get 30 pips or 300 pips who knows, if somehow you fail which is rare you can do next trade using M. Sometimes you get a few trades daily or one , or perhaps no big spike. This is a very simple method using M. Happy trading
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
yes , it fuk yes work , i'm doing with good entry
Quoting Dredding82
Would you care to elaborate a bit more....
Account Balance = $1,000
1% = $10
Risk per trade (after spread) = $10

Method 1 (Martingale)
Trade 1 = 10 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $10. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 2 = 20 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $20. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 3 = 40 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $40. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 4 = 80 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $80. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 5 = 160 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $160. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)

Method 2 (Semi Martingale)
Trade 1 = 10 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $10. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 2 = 20 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $20 (accumulated loss of $10 + $10). You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 3 = 30 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $30 (accumulated loss of $20 + $10). You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 4 = 40 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $40 (accumulated loss of $30 + $10). You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 5 = 50 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $50 (accumulated loss of $40 +$10). You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
so on .........................

Make adjustement for spread and enjoy the benefits of martingaling without actually martingaling your bets................. but wait, let me double the offer

Straight Method (no fuckin' martingale)
Trade 1 = 40 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $40. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 2 = 40 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $40. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 3 = 40 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $40. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 4 = 40 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $40. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
Trade 5 = 40 pip tp and 10 pip sl (you win, get $40. You lose, give away $10 plus spread)
so on
The Thief of Wall Street
Quoting billytt
if os , i dont think a person should be trading then
More than 30 consecutive losses are normal. My experience has been 52 consecutive losses and 34 consucutive winners.

With a win:loss ratio of 70:30, do expect 30 consecutive losses before you get 70 winners.

70% win ratio is quite different from winning 7 out of every 10 trades.................. much different.

A person with 85% winning ratio in a population of 100 trades can face 15 consecutive losers............... and many do.
The Thief of Wall Street
Martingale.......... How to make it work for you!

Inserted Video
The Thief of Wall Street
Quoting Chicky
More than 30 consecutive losses are normal. My experience has been 52 consecutive losses and 34 consucutive winners.

With a win:loss ratio of 70:30, do expect 30 consecutive losses before you get 70 winners.

70% win ratio is quite different from winning 7 out of every 10 trades.................. much different.

A person with 85% winning ratio in a population of 100 trades can face 15 consecutive losers............... and many do.

Sorry Sir, not quite.

A person with an 85% win rate has a possibility of 15% loss on his first trade.

For 2 consecutive losses he has a chance of 2.25 times in 100 consecutive trades.

For 3 consecutive losses he has a chance of about 3 times in a thousand consecutive trades.

My calculator says 15 consecutive losses in a row, for a system with 85% win rate, can be found about 4 times in ten thousand billion consecutive trades.

15 losses yes, but 15 consecutive losses NO.

If you have a system with a 51% win rate any money management system will work. Martingale will work best of them if its peculiar pitfalls are taken into consideration.

King.
Quoting kingsurfer
Sorry Sir, not quite.

A person with an 85% win rate has a possibility of 15% loss on his first trade.

For 2 consecutive losses he has a chance of 2.25 times in 100 consecutive trades.

For 3 consecutive losses he has a chance of about 3 times in a thousand consecutive trades.

My calculator says 15 consecutive losses in a row, for a system with 85% win rate, can be found about 4 times in ten thousand billion consecutive trades.

15 losses yes, but 15 consecutive losses NO.

If you have a system with a 51% win rate any money management system...
I think you have an interesting calculation. Does it also apply to outcomes that are mutually exclusive?

I suffered 52 consecutive losses. Using your math, what should be my win/loss ratio based on this outcome?

I also suffered 34 consecutive wins in the same year. What should be my win/loss ratio baseed on this outcome.

The total number of trades during this year were about 350.

Will appreciate if you could calculate this for me.


One more question:

Are these one and the same thing as far as win/loss ratio is concerned?

1. 6 winners in every 10 trades
2. 30 winners in every 50 trades
3. 60 winners in every 100 trades
4. 120 winners in every 200 trades
5. 600 winners in every 1,000 trades?

if yes, how many consecutive losers one should expect in the 1 and the 5 above?
The Thief of Wall Street
this thread borders the clowns of clowns,

martingale !

has one of these fools really broke a mathamatical solution to stoatic process of probability !

dime accounts declaring breaking new evidence to defy maths

come on ,go back to system threads

stop fooling yourself
Everyone who is trading a Martingale method of adding to losing positions should take a look at this case study that I just started reading:
Doubling: Nick Leeson's Trading Strategy

Here are a few choice excerpts to whet your appetite.

Quote
This paper examines the trading strategy attributed to Mr. Nicholas Leeson, who was the chief derivatives
trader of Barings bank in Singapore. His activities were the main cause of the eventual collapse of Barings
bank.

Quote
The empirical evidence suggests that Leeson followed a doubling strategy: he
continuously doubled his position as prices were falling.

Quote
Leeson's main assignment was to arbitrage
between SIMEX and the exchanges in Japan and try to capitalize on small price
differences between the futures contracts. In reality, however, he was taking massive
speculative positions, financing SIMEX’ margin requirements by selling options and
borrowing huge amounts of money from Barings’ head office in London. By the end of
February 1995, the losses had become too large and Barings bank went bankrupt.

Quote
Our interest in Mr. Leeson comes from the fact that doubling strategies are potentially
dangerous from a systemic point of view. An important attribute of doubling strategies is
that the inevitable and devastating loss is preceded by a period of high returns with low
volatility.

Quote
Conditional on the bad event not having happened (yet), the doubler’s
investment performance appears to indicate significant investment skill.

In other words, systems that use this type of doubling methodology produce periods of high returns with low volatility. The empirical evidence makes traders believe that doubling methodologies (Martingale) are sound systems and will continue to produce good solid returns into the future. However, somewhere down the road there is an inevitable margin call that will decimate the trader's account who relied on this strategy.
A few more quotes from the paper cited above:

Doubling:
Quote
That managers take additional risks to escape from a threatening situation is a wellknown
theme in the field of managerial decision making. For example, Shapira (1997)
and Kahneman and Tversky (1986, p. S258) show that people will take greater risks to
escape losses than to secure gains. As a consequence, people's behavior tends to change
in unexpected and unattractive ways when they are confronted with increasing losses.

Quote
Thus in finance, where many occupations are high-wire acts, the fear of falling is
constantly in the background and sometimes can lure people into disastrous activities.
Individuals can become gripped by a frantic panic and may try to conceal these losses, or
double up their bets like crazed gamblers trying to punt their way out of their mounting
debts. This is the classic gambler’s fallacy.

Quote
Should
Leeson’s activities have been discovered and stopped one month earlier, i.e. by the end of
January 1995, the total loss would have been about one quarter of the eventual loss.

Yes, exiting losing positions before the margin call is always preferable and less expensive.
I cannot believe anyone today would be niave enough to actually think martingale is anything but a disaster about to happen. I am taken aback at such ignorance.

To all people who are new to trading. Trade martingale and you will lose all your money almost immediately.
You have been warned!

TJ
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
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