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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,721
  • Dec 12, 2012 11:18am Dec 12, 2012 11:18am
Wow, risk on, AUD/USD breaking up.... I wonder if the New Moon today will cap it just like it did on the QE4 announcement at 1.0600 on 14th Sept....
  • #5,722
  • Dec 12, 2012 11:49am Dec 12, 2012 11:49am
Quoting MktScape
price compression into a supply zone which was tested back in early 2012 ....

Shahab, is this currently on your radar for a short? Is there any guidance we can get from any of COT reports to support our decision?
Although you already know the answer to your question, I'll give you some insights. I explained before this type of busted patterns. Here is what I posted before for EJ, but I reaped it again as it is the same pattern.
For GJ the COT clearly supports long GJ. It's very simple: UJ is COT net long, GU is COT net long> GJ COT net long*2
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  • #5,723
  • Dec 12, 2012 11:51am Dec 12, 2012 11:51am
Quoting mypipbull
Hi guys, my take on COT is that the JPY positioning is very heavily bullish (yet to be reflected in price) and the GBP is very bearish (reflected across some cross pairs). This pair is on my list for a short but as usual MUST wait for the price breakdown before getting involved.

Due to the high levels of Long holdings by the Commercials and the opposing massive short holdings by the NonComms (Funds and Specs) I would struggle to have a bullish bias on this pair even if we get above the 133.5 area.

Hope to hear Shahab's...
Wrong interpretation, look at my previous post.
  • #5,724
  • Dec 12, 2012 11:53am Dec 12, 2012 11:53am
Quoting bassramy
Are we heading to a wide H&S ? on EU, I guess we will have to wait and see.
I do not call that a H&Sh.
  • #5,725
  • Dec 12, 2012 11:58am Dec 12, 2012 11:58am
Quoting shahab8b
UJ: moved TP up to 84
UJ:
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  • #5,726
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:04pm Dec 12, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting shahab8b
EJ chart as promised
EJ: long trade as we discussed before
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  • #5,727
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:08pm Dec 12, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
EU
EU: long trade update
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  • #5,728
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:12pm Dec 12, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Tradoholic,
Nice going on EJ. I am a bit skeptical if it continues to fall further, let's see how it plays. As for AU, I'm more bullish technically, for now holding longs.
AU: long trade
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  • #5,729
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:45pm Dec 12, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
EU: long trade update
Thanks Shahab.You are the best.Do you mind to share your Monthly and weekly pivot Indi here please?I downloaded afew from FF but none of them looks like yours.RegardsMike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,730
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:33pm Dec 12, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
EU: long trade update
I'm waiting for the price to reach monthly R1 1.31211 which is about the previous swing high (also your TP). However, I'm not sure if it comes down from there... this bull is quite strong that may continue until the US fiscal cliff settles.
Your thoughts?
Thank you!
BTW, I chickened out @ 1.300, but no regret. It was a good ride of 100 pips in 36 hrs!
  • #5,731
  • Dec 12, 2012 5:32pm Dec 12, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
Wrong interpretation, look at my previous post.
Thanks for your comments, perhaps my very bearish is not correct, looking at your GBP/USD COT chart I see a relatively high Net position by the NonComms which is obviously currently bullish as they are the 'trend followers'.
However, their position is at somewhat of a recent extreme so there is surely a bearish warning here? Looking at the COT chart again every time the NonComms got very long a pullback or reversal ensued. There is no price action to suggest we are there yet BUT surely its a warning?
Appreciate your further comment.
Thanks
Mike
  • #5,732
  • Edited Dec 13, 2012 1:05am Dec 12, 2012 7:39pm | Edited Dec 13, 2012 1:05am
Quoting shahab8b
Although you already know the answer to your question, I'll give you some insights. I explained before this type of busted patterns. Here is what I posted before for EJ, but I reaped it again as it is the same pattern.
For GJ the COT clearly supports long GJ. It's very simple: UJ is COT net long, GU is COT net long> GJ COT net long*2
Thanks Shahab ...I am reviewing the info and will be in touch.
  • #5,733
  • Dec 13, 2012 12:58am Dec 13, 2012 12:58am
Quoting cdndollar
Long NZDUSD earler @.8368 with 20 pips stop..

H1 keep backing off from weekly R1.. closed for a few beers.. will wait for retrace
Bullish B/O trade closed for peanuts.. in hindsight anticipation of reversal from bearish wedge divergence..
I think the lesson here is never anticipate divergence against minor resist under prevailing immediate strong bullish bias.. also, the market play tricks with our mind if we focus our eyes on those wriggly lines moving across the screen..

Price is now up against .8450.. a major confluence zone plus weekly & monthly R2 with another wedge & bearish divergence.. may be worth a short with weak PA for a S/T correction down to .8300..

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  • #5,734
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:43am Dec 13, 2012 1:43am
Quoting cdndollar
Bullish B/O trade closed for peanuts.. in hindsight anticipation of reversal from bearish wedge divergence..
I think the lesson here is never anticipate divergence against minor resist under prevailing immediate strong bullish bias.. also, the market play tricks with our mind if we focus our eyes on those wriggly lines moving across the screen..

Price is now up against .8450.. a major confluence zone plus weekly & monthly R2 with another wedge & bearish divergence.. may be worth a short with weak PA for a S/T correction down to .8300..

Attachment ...
Sold small .8438 with tight stop..
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  • #5,735
  • Edited 11:57am Dec 13, 2012 6:55am | Edited 11:57am
Hi there active contributors!


Im just wondering if this is a good source of COT data.

http://cotbase.com/

It seems like a pretty easy to understand, clear and concise site? Any thoughts from the more experienced COT users is appreciated. A fool and his money is soon parted, which could be me.

Keep up the excellent work it is well appreciated.
  • #5,736
  • Dec 13, 2012 10:17am Dec 13, 2012 10:17am
AU

Will go short when it breaks UTL and 1.0500 (at least 1H bar close).

Your thoughts?
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  • #5,737
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:19pm Dec 13, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting Forexgogo
AU

Will go short when it breaks UTL and 1.0500 (at least 1H bar close).

Your thoughts?
Update
It rejected at monthly R1, but still watching for short BTW, I see a divergence on a daily.
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  • #5,738
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:33am Dec 14, 2012 12:33am
Quoting shahab8b
EU: long trade update
I don't know how you do it, it must be some kind of magic, cause i never thought that the EU will follow through to the Exact top to form a double top, Anyway Bravo even if you don't need it.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,739
  • Dec 14, 2012 1:44am Dec 14, 2012 1:44am
Quoting shahab8b
EU: long trade update
sick trade...
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #5,740
  • Dec 16, 2012 11:07am Dec 16, 2012 11:07am
shahab8b

I know JPY's value is declining according to COT, but I'm thinking going short CADJPY @ 85.00... (I'm expecting it to retest 85.00 and gets rejected)
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