EurAnalysis

I am ready for both.

Anyone wants to put the reputation on the line NOW that 1.3120 will not be touched before 1.24xx? Do so now when the price is flat and before the fact

Sure my friend. I think it will come close to 1.3120 before 1.24XX The math proves it BUT anything is possible in the FX casino.

Green pips will always be with you with such a thinking.

Remember the Probability Calculator is referencing historic PA. If you believe fundos are baked into the PA cake then enjoy. I use this as a tool because the market can turn on a dime on a word.:nerd:

Thank you and you as well. Since I dont use SL I have to put the math on my side with strong MM trading the trend.

For the record I am bearish as a bi**ch having the majority of funds allocated on the short side.

PT spoke words of wisdom the other day when he said "trade what you see...not what you think."

Currency speculators always priced in the fundies and front running what might happen next. For commercials it doesn't really matter. Exchange rate differentials just as an 'expense or cost or extra income'.

Posting updated xls and as image (for those who can't open the sheet)

Updates:

1) Includes weekly projections for the past 14 periods
2) Projections not in actual range are highlighted
3) Actual high/ low prices included for comparison
4) Column heading prefix changed from "f" to "s" to emphasize that projections relate to a safe trading range and not an attempt to forcast the actual high/ low for the period.
5) I will provide next week's projections early morning on Monday (Sydney EST)

Note:

1) Current period Weekly projections met.
2) Current period Monthly high projection met, but the low still pending (1.2916)

Wait, you assuming that we have reputations to even put on the line...haha

I trade Forex so therefore I lost my reputation long ago...

I agree with Euro...play it both ways and if you don't use a broker that allows hedging, get out now...get it to one that does!!!

Unfortunately due to NFA and CFTC rules, NO broker in US can offer hedging, and follow FIFO( First in,first out regardless of which trade you close) rules on trades. Not only that but you can only get 50:1 leverage also. So for me to get to one, I have to move out of the country to say Canada or Europe, and I can't consider that option until we hit 1.18........then I will have hit the lottery!

So, seems to me US traders are at more of a disadvantage than anywhere else. Hmmm, I wonder if Paulson or Bass have to play only by the same rules? Obviously Jon Corzine was able to make his own rules. Only way to play both ways is to have 2 accounts, and problem is it would get very confusing if you are trading several pairs at a time.

My take.......if I had enuff money, I could get those alphabet arseholes to change rules...unfortunately the big boys are trying to get regulators to regulate us small timers out of business.

Just IMHO!

Cheerio!

well actually you can always hedge

granted you have to know the standard deviation of your position, the net exposure to desired currency.
calculate for positive swap......and you can PROPERLY hedge any position....of course if you are trading LARGE sums maybe some option hedging strategies might not be a bad idea.

you just have to know why you are hedging

NEDGING or taking short and long just gives you double fees and you get screwed on the roll over depending on the disparity of the interest rate of both central banks.

if you want a neutral position just close the trade.

neutral positions are only a good idea when you are capturing a premium either through positive swap or dividends.

what about 2 different broker? one long only, 1 short only?

There is no need for a different broker. You can have two separate accounts with the same broker. The problem is still the same though... managing two separate accounts.

Good morning everyone and welcome to NFP Friday... Crunch time for the Euro.

What's next for this pair? Now that we have managed a daily close below 1.3050 after rallying back up to the mid 1.31xx area on hopes over a European crisis resolution and positive sentiment of the EZ economies after some better than expected PMI numbers, it is clear, as highlighted by Mario Draghi's dovish comments yesterday, that the Euro is still quite far from being out of the woods. Yesterday's bearish cascading fall from grace, confirmed a head and shoulders formation on the H1 chart which set a measured target of 1.2960 and that target was reached before the NY afternoon session. As a result, now the market as a whole is wondering what's next. The answer all depends on the USD now. Sure the Euro will continue to lose steam but we always have to keep in mind that this pair's movements don't only depend on the Euro.

Today is NFP day and the headline figure today will not be that easy to interpret. A lower number is expected today due to temporary effects of hurricane Sandy. The mean consensus figure is set at +89K which is a relatively low number compared to the last few releases. This time around, the market may shrug off this dismal number because of the fact that it is a direct result of the effects from Sandy and we should return to a better number next month. I fully support this view and it is backed by the fact that we had some higher than expected US jobless claims number immediately after Sandy, but the last jobless claims number fell back significantly below the 4 week average, opening the doors to a better NFP number for December (reported in the first week of January)

It's all about the reaction now. Next week the FOMC meets again to set monetary policy going forward. Operation Twist is coming to an end at the end of December, so many will be speculating over whether or not the Fed will be replacing it with further large scale asset purchases which will match or exceed the current net monthly purchases. As we have seen in the past, these types of FOMC events have been front run and turn into "Buy the rumor, Sell the news" events. Therefore trying to predict how the market will react to a worse or better than expected NFP number today will be nothing more than a coin toss. Also, traditionally the best pair to trade NFP news in the past has been the USD/JPY (Buy on better number and sell on worse number), but this time around could get a bit tricky on the "worse than expected" side as the JPY is generally hated by the market for now due to political uncertainty in Japan and the probability of a much more aggressive easing policy from the BOJ going forward.

I am still very bearish the EUR/USD pair and my sentiment has not wavered at all over the last 20 months. My ultimate target for this pair is still below the July 2012 lows of 1.2041, but obviously it's not going to happen tomorrow. I was projecting a possibility of reaching the July lows before the New Year but now I have to admit that it seems out of reach and perhaps I may have to wait until January or February. Regardless, until such time as I see a very good chance of the EuroZone getting it's act together with a solid fiscal/political and banking transfer union, my bearish outlook prevails.

I'm fading any rally we may see today (if we get one) upon confirmation of overbought conditions. Best of luck with your trading today and as always, be well and trade safe.

E/U Weekly:



Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Bids, 1.2945/50, (1.2949 (38.2% retracement of 1.2661-1.3127 rally) possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.2900/15 (1.2906 76.4% of 1.2042-1.3173 rally, 1.2915 the 55 day MA). Offers 1.2980/00 (10 day MA at 1.2996) likely buy stops above ahead of offers 1.3015/25 and 1.3035/45 likely buy stops through both from short term shorts.

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries at 15:00 GMT

EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3010, 1.3080, 1.3100

Have a great weekend and we'll see you back here early next week.

Hi Gofer,

Can u please post this Support Resistance indicator?

If it will overcome 2966, retest of 1.3000 will look duable again (Intraday)

The market makers are working for me

Draghi slapped the market in the face.

hi PT, i've closed all my shorts +7.88%, think it's good time to look new highs to reload EU shorts @1.30xx
as it's Friday may try to scalp some intraday longs after NY opens..
so i wonder if you expect a new lows today after NY opens
your view is very much appreciated

GL @ GP to all