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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,641
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:54am Dec 4, 2012 6:54am
Quoting TradeYourEdg
I'm watching USDCAD for a long entry based on daily chart. Entry on 4 hr only if I find a break above 0.995 and a retest of the neckline.

Will be quite careful here as US Dollar is quite bearish at the moment. At the same time, I'm trying to keep it simple.

I'm watching that too, but I'm not very comfortable about going long USD atm.
  • #5,642
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:57am Dec 4, 2012 6:57am
EU: long trade in play
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  • #5,643
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:59am Dec 4, 2012 6:59am
Quoting shahab8b
Aussie is holding up pretty well for a currency that is about to get a rate cut in less than 3 hours. I am favoring the long side.Let's see if 1.04 holds after the cut.
AU: The long trade, suggested here before the rate cut, played out according to the plan.
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  • #5,644
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:23am Dec 4, 2012 7:23am
GU: if given the chance, I'll take a long around 1.6050.
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  • #5,645
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:44am Dec 4, 2012 7:44am
Quoting shahab8b
I will be careful shorting JPY crosses atm. Here is what I am thinking of EJ. Although there is a classic divergence on 4hr chart there is no indication of topping yet. I'll try a short if 106.80 gives away.
A great reading as usual! I will be watching 106.81 (happens to be a wk pv) and 108.
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  • #5,646
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:18am Dec 4, 2012 8:18am
Quoting shahab8b
GU: if given the chance, I'll take a long around 1.6050.
I, too, expecting it to come down to fib 23, but weekly R2 is on the way -- see the friction. But i think we have a good chance with a divergence 1H
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  • #5,647
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:06pm Dec 4, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Forexgogo
I, too, expecting it to come down to fib 23, but weekly R2 is on the way -- see the friction. But i think we have a good chance with a divergence 1H
You were spot on reading the divergence
  • #5,648
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:09pm Dec 4, 2012 12:09pm
UJ: what I'm looking at now. If S at 81.70 holds, we may see a re-test of recent high. Another interpretation will be a short term double top if the S gives away
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  • #5,649
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:38pm Dec 4, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
UJ: what I'm looking at now. If S at 81.70 holds, we may see a re-test of recent high. Another interpretation will be a short term double top if the S gives away
One more possibility is to bounce at 81.50=Fib23=Monthly PV(81.45)... just my two cents...
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  • #5,650
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:42pm Dec 4, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting shahab8b
UJ: what I'm looking at now. If S at 81.70 holds, we may see a re-test of recent high. Another interpretation will be a short term double top if the S gives away
A closer look at the 4hr chart. It seems a good RRR to play the range if S holds.
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  • #5,651
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:47pm Dec 4, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting Forexgogo
One more possibility is to bounce at 81.50=Fib23=Monthly PV(81.45)... just my two cents...
agreed, any deeps would be bought on the pair
Attached Image
  • #5,652
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:15pm Dec 4, 2012 1:15pm
Hi Shahab

I've just spent the last few weeks reading through your Journal as I'm Interested in learning about COT...Its been a really pleasant read,
I like how you approach COT data and how you interlink it with your TA ..

Thanks for a very cool Journal, Keep up the great work..

Ja..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #5,653
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:15pm Dec 4, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting shahab8b
agreed, any deeps would be bought on the pair
Hi shahab8b,

Just wondering, where do you get the COT chart from? it's much more user friendly compared to the cftc.gov or timingcharts.com/ site.
Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #5,654
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:17pm Dec 4, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
I'm watching that too, but I'm not very comfortable about going long USD atm.
ditto.
Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #5,655
  • Dec 5, 2012 8:18am Dec 5, 2012 8:18am
Quoting shahab8b
I will be careful shorting JPY crosses atm. Here is what I am thinking of EJ. Although there is a classic divergence on 4hr chart there is no indication of topping yet. I'll try a short if 106.80 gives away.
EJ short, but very cautious. It touched 108 and rejected. I believe Euro is losing the momentum. I didn't like entering in the middle of congestion area, but didn't like entering near the wk PV, too.... BTW i see a divergence on daily.
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  • #5,656
  • Dec 5, 2012 8:39am Dec 5, 2012 8:39am
Quoting Forexgogo
EJ short, but very cautious. It touched 108 and rejected. I believe Euro is losing the momentum. I didn't like entering in the middle of congestion area, but didn't like entering near the wk PV, too.... BTW i see a divergence on daily.
Out -15 didn't like the PA
  • #5,657
  • Dec 5, 2012 9:58am Dec 5, 2012 9:58am
Quoting shahab8b
agreed, any deeps would be bought on the pair
I got in UJ when it bounced at EMA200. Now having SL=BE, I'm looking at 85.00 because I doubt if UJ will have a big retracement until it reaches 85.00.

What is your take? (I'm sure you are in UJ too)
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  • #5,658
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:15am Dec 5, 2012 10:15am
Quoting Forexgogo
EJ short, but very cautious. It touched 108 and rejected. I believe Euro is losing the momentum. I didn't like entering in the middle of congestion area, but didn't like entering near the wk PV, too.... BTW i see a divergence on daily.
I have to say that was a bad entry.You went short on a support.
  • #5,659
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:18am Dec 5, 2012 10:18am
Quoting Forexgogo
I got in UJ when it bounced at EMA200. Now having SL=BE, I'm looking at 85.00 because I doubt if UJ will have a big retracement until it reaches 85.00.

What is your take? (I'm sure you are in UJ too)
Well, we discussed that yesterday. I'm long from 81.81. Rarely, a trade goes pip by pip according to the plan; fortunately, this is one of them.
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  • #5,660
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:24am Dec 5, 2012 10:24am
Quoting shahab8b
I have to say that was a bad entry.You went short on a support.
You are absolutely right. I got out -15 -- shoulda known it
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