GBP/USD and EUR/USD

no. there's no double top. cable, weekly.

UK Names Carney as New Bank of England Chief

Published: Monday, 26 Nov 2012 | 11:30 AM ET
By: CNBC.com with Reuters



http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...carney-200.jpg

Britain named Canadian central bank chief Mark Carney on Monday as the next Bank of England Governor, springing a major surprise by appointing a foreigner to the job.

Carney, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker who successfully helped to steer the Canadian economy through the global crisis, will succeed Mervyn King next year, British finance minister George Osborne told parliament.

"He is acknowledged as the outstanding central banker of his generation," Osborne said of Carney.
"He is quite simply the best, most experienced and most qualified person in the world to be the next Governor of the Bank of England."



Source : CNBC


* NOTICE :
Bio of Mark J. Carney in HERE

Quick Thoughts on Carney's Move to the BOE

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2012
Marc Chandler

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PVko515qmI...20/carney.jpeg

The UK surprised many by naming Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to replace Meryn King as the head of the Bank of England.

Immediately pundits weighed in. Some saying this was somewhat hawkish for the UK and sterling initially ticked up. Others said this was a loss for Canada and the Canadian dollar initially ticked down.

Yet both sides miss the point. Carney was not chosen for his monetary policy biases. On the contrary, what speaks the loudest is Carney's regulatory experience. The Bank of England is in the process of securing the broadest and farthest reaching regulatory authority. This is Carney's bailiwick.
He is, and will continue to be the head of the International Financial Stability Board.

In this context, it may make sense to pick some one with not beholden to domestic interests or influences. Surely, for nearly every other consideration, such as continuity, familiarity with BOE institutional framework, traditions, a cast of characters, there must be a legion of UK citizens that are up to the task.

In terms of the implications for the near-term monetary policy trajectory, there ain't. BOE Governor King's terms does not end until May.
During the next six months, it is possible that the BOE decides to embark on another gilt purchase program (QE).
After expanding by 1% in Q3 (GDP revision due tomorrow, no change is expected), the UK economy appears to have stalled, or nearly so, here in Q4.

In terms of Canadian monetary policy, Carney has already soft pedaled the need for an imminent removal of accommodation (rate hike). It is difficult to why this will change much in the coming months, with the US fiscal cliff and QE by the Federal Reserve, which may be extended next month to pick up some of the purchases now being conducted under Operation Twist. Going over the fiscal cliff fully could push the US into a sharp recession in H1 2013.

Bottom line: Interesting development but not real policy implication or compelling case to buy or sell the Canadian dollar or sterling. Therefore, more inclined to fade market move.

I have same

Why Europe Debt Defaults Are About to Rattle Stocks

Published: Monday, 26 Nov 2012 | 2:08 PM ET
By: Jeff Cox - CNBC.com Senior Writer



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Though the crisis in Europe has been pushed aside in recent months, the new year is likely to bring new concerns that a slew of nations are in line for debt defaults.

Citigroup released a fresh analysis Monday in which the firm estimates that at least five nations along the periphery of the euro zone will need to restructure their onerous debt burdens. The worst of the bunch — Greece — likely will dump the currency completely before 2013 ends, while nations such as Spain and Italy that have ducked under the radar likely will find themselves back under pressure, Citi said.


Source : CNBC

Euro zone, IMF reach deal on cutting long-term Greek debt

By Jan Strupczewski and Annika Breidthardt
BRUSSELS | Mon Nov 26, 2012 8:01pm EST

http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources...=CBRE8AP1DRY00


(Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund clinched agreement on a new debt target for Greece on Monday in a breakthrough towards releasing an urgently needed tranche of loans to the near-bankrupt economy, officials said.

After nearly 10 hours of talks at their third meeting on the issue in as many weeks, Greece's international lenders agreed to reduce Greek debt by 40 billion euros, cutting it to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, via a package of steps.

The deal should open the way for a major aid installment needed to recapitalize Greece's teetering banks and enable the government to pay wages, pensions and suppliers in December. Greece could receive up to 44 billion euros, although it remains unclear if the full amount will be paid in one go.



Source : Reuters

GBP/USD and EUR/USD in H4 Chart...

Found 'Cup and Handle' Formation

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictio...and_Handle.gif



MEMO :
Definition of 'CUP and HANDLE' in HERE :nerd:

Commitment of Traders Updated: Speculators Caught Wrong Footed

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2012
Marc Chandler

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OrIIthg-Lm...320/abacus.jpg

The CFTC reported released the Commitment of Traders report on Monday due to the US holiday last week.
It covers the week through November 20. That means that it does not capture the rally from seen at the end of last week.

Our hypothesis was that the dollar's sell-off against the major currencies, except the Japanese yen, was not a function of some ill-placed optimism about a Greek package or optimism about the US avoiding the fiscal cliff, or the unexpected improvement in the ZEW report, all of which had been suggested by other observer.

Instead, we suggested that the price action might be explained better by the political rhetoric coming from the anticipated head of the next government in Japan. The large sell-off in the yen forced the position adjustment that led to a short squeeze of the other major currencies.

The Commitment of Traders data lends support to our hypothesis, though of course it is no smoking gun. During the days leading up to the dollar's sell-off, the speculators added to all short positions in the all the currency futures, but the Swiss franc. Gross longs in all the currency futures, except sterling and the yen fell. The short-term trading market was leaning the wrong way.

As the table below shows, there was more than a 50% increase in gross short yen positions. It was the largest position adjustment by far during the reporting period. That it was the main catalyst does not require a stretch of the imagination.

The net short yen position of 51.4k compares with 18.2k net short at the end of October. In March the net short position reached a 5-year high of 67.6k contracts.

Just as speculative players continued to add amass a large short yen position, they also continued to extend the short euro position.
In fact, this reporting period was the fifth consecutive one that the short position increased. The net long sterling position was pared to less than 1000 contract. It began the month a little above 23.4k. The net long Canadian dollar position declined for ninth consecutive month. At 61.4k, the net long position has been nearly halved over the past two months. In a like fashion the net long peso position continued to trend lower and it at smallest level since late September.

The reporting period also saw the net short franc position increase by 50%, off a small base. The net long Australian dollar position was also trimmed in the days before it staged a rally to test two-month highs.

...

Multi Levels for POUNDS in H1 time frime

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PURPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

Multi Levels for EURO in H1 time frime

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PURPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.

• Multi Levels for EURGBP in H1 time frime

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PURPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels

Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph

Tuesday - November 27, 2012

Dynamic Trend : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from H4 to M1 time frime
Daily Dynamic : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from D1 to D4 time frime

Execs See Euro Crisis as Chance to Beat Competition: Survey

Published: Tuesday, 20 Nov 2012 | 12:16 AM ET
By: Katy Barnato - Assistant Editor, CNBC



http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...o_coin_200.jpg

Two-thirds of chief executives and chief financial officers from around the world view the euro zone crisis as an opportunity to gain competitive advantage over rivals, according to a survey by global consultancy firm Accenture.

Around half (56 percent) of the 450 business leaders surveyed said the crisis was an opportunity for their companies to accelerate investment in areas such as outsourcing, supply changes and risk management.




Source : CNBC

Hello all

This is my first chart on this thread .

This is the Eurusd 30m chart the plum areas are sell (supply areas) and the light green areas are buy areas (demand areas).

In between this areas we have to stay out of a trade because this will be high risk trades or if some one is a scalper then it is a different story.

Good Chart and explaint...

Buy Rumor+Sell Fact=Turnaround Tuesday

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2012
Marc Chandler

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7Udmy5Ij9Q...4/s200/can.jpg

News that a deal was finally struck to ensure Greece can repay its largely official creditors saw the euro test the $1.3010 area twice in Asia before Europe took profits, knocking the euro below $1.2940. The euro has now traded on both sides of Monday's range and a close below yesterday's low (~$1.2944) would undermine the technical tone. It would signal potential for a deeper pullback toward $1.2880-$1.2910.

The Greek deal has many moving parts, but there are key pieces. A formal decision will not made until December 13 and needs formal approval by a few parliaments. A German vote is possible at the end of the week or early next week. Merkel may have to once again rely on support from the opposition Social Democrats for her European agenda.

Before that final approval, Greece is expected to conduct a bond buy-back (new haircut for the private sector) at 35 cents on the euro. This is clearly a poor, even if telegraphed, development for holders of Greek government bonds, and that especially means Greek financial institutions. The financial sector shares are off 8-9% today, while the overall Athens' Stock Exchange is off 1.5%.

The official sector resisted a haircut, but accepted a significant restructuring, which includes lower interest rates, fees, and longer maturities. The ECB's profits from the Greek bonds it purchased under SMP will be recycled back to Greece.

In some ways, despite the modifications and bond buy-back, the general strategy remains the same. The aid will be distributed in several tranches into first part of next year and contingent on further reforms. A carrot in the form of more forbearance for when a sufficient primary budget surplus is achieved, has also been offered.

As the dust settles on the Catalan election, it is becoming clearer that Madrid may turn out to be the biggest winner, even if Rajoy must engage Mas in a serious discussion about fiscal transfers. Attention now must turn from such lofty ideas of independence to putting together a coalition. The way many observers cast the issue, the separatists have a majority. However, the center-right CIU and the center-left ERC agree on very little and is unlikely to govern together.

A coalition with Rajoy's PP would give a government 69 seats in the 135-seat chamber. The 2013 budget will be among the first challenges of the new government. Mas may be forced to make concessions on his austerity push. Madrid, perhaps anticipating such needs, announced today it would top up its fund for regional assistance near year by 5 bln euros.

News that Canada's Carney will succeed King at the helm of the BOE overshadows other issues. The knee jerk reaction to the announcement (buy sterling and sell Canadian dollars) was largely unwound before the close of the North American session yesterday. The Canadian dollar has marginally outperformed sterling today. Carney's move to the BOE does not take place for several months, during which other monetary decisions are likely.

Separately, the UK left Q3 GDP unchanged at 1%, but reduced the year-over-year pace to -0.1% from flat. It seemed that for a number of reasons, nearly all the engines of growth were in sync. That seems to be more a good coincidence than a indication that the UK is emerging from its economic stagnation.

Sterling managed to make a marginal new high for the move, nudging through last Friday's high ~$1.6051 in Asia before coming off in Europe. Yesterday's low just below $1.60 offers initial support and below there additional support is seen in the $1.5950-60 area.

Great Graphic: A Critical Imbalance


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CQVFxVm-Me...s1600/food.jpg


This must be a Great Graphic. Both Zero Hedge and Walter Russell Mead posted it. It is from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

It shows the significant deterioration of China's food self-sufficiency and the improved US agricultural surplus. Europe is roughly in balance after previously being an importer.

Given the intensive use of water to produce foodstuffs and fibers (roughly 1000 to 1), China's widening agriculture deficit reflects water shortage. China is home to about 20% of the world's population, but has less than 10% of the world's supply of fresh water.

There are numerous implications for development, power politics and, Zero Hedge suggests, the role of the dollar. This discussion comes on the heels of the IEA's recent estimate that the US can be the world's largest producer of oil by 2020 and essentially energy self-sufficient by 2030

Portugal and Ireland: Us Too, Please

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2012
Marc Chandler

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wY8XQrVqpb...s200/three.jpg

Greece has had trouble implementing the structural reforms demanded in exchange for aid. The large and rising debt/GDP ratio is also a function of the larger than officially (Troika) expected contraction in the Greek economy. The resolution achieved after protracted debate includes an easing of the debt servicing vis lower interest rates, deferred payments, and lengthened the maturity schedule.

Doubts expressed by the deputy leader of Germany's CDU, questioning whether an official sector hair cut is embedded into the agreement may have weighed on the euro in an already offered market. Recall that Merkel has frequently had to depend on the opposition SPD to support her European agenda. A vote on the Greek deal, which could be taken before the end of the week may not be an exception.

An under-appreciated twist to the plot, however, comes from Ireland and Portugal. Recall that 2011 mid-year summit, European officials adopted a principle of equal treatment under the framework of the EFSF. Essentially, this means that consideration given to Greece out to applied to the other countries who are receive EFSF assistance, namely Ireland and Portugal.

Ireland and Portugal are consistently evaluated positively by the Troika, but are now required to have a more onerous debt servicing burden--higher interest rates and shorter maturities than Greece. Some market participants see the likelihood that the official sector restructures Ireland and Portuguese debt. Portugal's benchmark 10-year yield has fallen 14 bp today, second to the 24 bp decline in Greece's 10-year yield. Counter-intuitively, Irish yields are slightly higher on the day..

Deutsche Bank faces Libor questions from German lawmakers

FRANKFURT | Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:02pm EST

(Reuters) - Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) compliance chief Stephan Leithner and former board member Hugo Baenziger face skeptical German lawmakers on Wednesday as parliamentarians seek answers about how banks manipulated global benchmark interest rates.

Source : Reuters



Wall Street falls, hit by Reid's "fiscal cliff" comments

By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK | Thu Nov 27, 2012 6:55pm EST


(Reuters) - Stocks slid on Tuesday in a choppy session, losing ground in the last hour before the close after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid expressed disappointment that there has been "little progress" in dealing with the "fiscal cliff."

The market was flat for most of the session but fell sharply after Reid's comments, a signal that investors remain skittish about the wrangling in Washington. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, rose on Reid's words.

Source : Reuters