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Attachments: Another simple system - Time-Frame 15
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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

Wonderwoman.
god and love will heal.
we all love, and god is all love.


xxx
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
Quoting Gibril
Need Some Help form Everyone.


Greetings everyone and hope all of you are having a good weekends with family.



I received an email from my personal friend asking me this question ( he is not from this thread and has his own trading system)


The question is... with the system he is using, he can have a consistent run for weeks, hardly taking any significant loss. He built up his account equity up that doing it well and keep on adding another zero on the end of his account every week.



BUT............ then he start to take a significant...
Dear Gibril,

Tell your friend he just experienced some of the adventures of a currency trader and he has to wake up from this nightmare.

There are 3 kind of traders:
1) Traders who see things happen.
2) Traders who make things happen.
3) Traders who do not know what happened.

...
Tell him also that you are there to help him, just like you are here to help us all. Asssure him of this.
...

My very best wishes to you and your friend..
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
sidefx
Member
Member Since Oct 2010
742 Posts

Excellent trades, Renata. Have you stopped using pivots? The EU signal was just under R1..


Hi Sidefx,

Sorry for late reply was reading and backtesting. I did take Fib Pivots off as I was not taking trades when they were close by, and missing good trades. Arjun I think said in one of his posts that he doesn't use them. I may put them back on if price is stalling to see if R1 or R2 close by.

I rely more now on what senior traders say by "always looking left." I use S/R levels from 4 hr and 1 hr charts shown as blue horizontal lines. The less I have on my chart the better I do.
Keeping it simple
1. Check daily, 4 hr then 1 hr.
2. S/R lines drawn from 4hr and 1 hr
3. Above or below both 10ema and 200 ema, Always away from 200ema.
4. look for L/HL or H/LH
5. Target BRN or S/R which ever comes first.

Hope this helps and senior traders please correct me if I am wrong or have left an important step out.
I don't want to confuse anyone.

To Wonderwomen, my thoughts and prayers are with you. I enjoy your posts and love that you are such a good trader and a fellow female. Stay strong and get better soon!

Love
Renata
To Wonderwomen..

My thoughts and prayers are with you for a fast recovery and a full and healthy life, get well soon..the family misses you..

God bless..
Quoting Gibril
Need Some Help form Everyone.


Greetings everyone and hope all of you are having a good weekends with family.



I received an email from my personal friend asking me this question ( he is not from this thread and has his own trading system)


The question is... with the system he is using, he can have a consistent run for weeks, hardly taking any significant loss. He built up his account equity up that doing it well and keep on adding another zero on the end of his account every week.



BUT............ then he start...
Hi ya Gibril..

This sounds like the roller coaster ride I've been on before..also I'm sure many other traders have had the same rise and fall in there trading..

I think most of the family have mentioned the issues already..a lot of the issues basically come down to MM and Psychology....

MM: He is building an account so quick that it looks like he is over leveraging as he builds confidence in his system..
He is losing a few weeks of large returns of an account in 2 days that it looks like he is doubling up his trades and not using stop losses properly as he is over confident of his system and can't believe he is losing..

Psychology: He is so sure that his system works perfectly that he can't accept a losing trade and he thinks he will get it back on the next trade in turn doubling up and losing control causing a roller coaster of emotions making it difficult for him to see the trades clearly..

Sorry if this comes across a bit harsh as not meant to be...this same scenario has happened to myself so all I can do is relay what I received from that experience..

He has to step back...clear his head and have a good look at his MM....if he doesn't do this he will be building a bad habit which will just keep happening over and over, losing more and more funds until he eventually stops it or walks away from trading all together..

Psychology is something we all have to work on and is a never ending process in life and trading but for now to have a bit of control of his emotions he should have a clear trading plan with rules in place..stops, targets, entries all in place before taking the trade due to his trading plan rules..

I hope this has helped in some way..

Cheers,
Adrian
Quoting Ciara
Hey Brother,

I would recommend him start using the indy u made... Arjuna Arrow Indy.
I will finish backtesting it tomorrow . Results are awesome..It took me 3 weeks..

Stay blessed, Ciara


@Wonderwoman...sent u PM.
Hi brother,

Please can you share here which indicator made by Gibril, Arjuna arrow indicator, on which you are doing back testing , may be I can also do some back or forward testing of same on different pairs.
Quoting mkfx
Hi brother,

Please can you share here which indicator made by Gibril, Arjuna arrow indicator, on which you are doing back testing , may be I can also do some back or forward testing of same on different pairs.
I've been looking for it today also, and I'm quite sure it's the indy at post 14917, page 995. Watch for Ciara's backtest results which she'll probably post soon.
Quoting Gibril

I received an email from my personal friend asking me this question ( he is not from this thread and has his own trading system)


The question is... with the system he is using, he can have a consistent run for weeks, hardly taking any significant loss. He built up his account equity up that doing it well and keep on adding another zero on the end of his account every week.
There can only be 2 issues, the system or the trader.

Needs to have a good long hard look at each losing trade to see whats going wrong. Is it the system - needs to get very clear whats working and whats not. Perhaps a trend system thats awful in sideways market. Or the trader, thats the mental side, are basic trade rules, MM getting forgotten.

Hopefully once trades analysed (normally learn more from losing than winning) then there will be some clarity on what to avoid to improve %'s.
Quoting pairs18
I have a thread on high frequency and I would like those with successful trading strategies to help me out.
I have already built a platform that attemps to scalp the EURUSD through several high frequency type strategies, including pairs correlation, skew analysis and others.

I am looking for an overlay strategy that will kick me over the profitability line.

I am close.

Please reply to my thread. Thanks

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=396145

Thanks!
Brother....This is not allowed in this thread...Plz remove your post.Please learn and contribute here if you want.thanks in advance...stay blessed
Let all the living things live blissfully
Master Arjun Sir,

Only time I can review the thread for the week.

Now going through post # 487, Page 33. Reading it for 12th round, I still discover things which I don't understand previously.

all those words and posting start to make sense to me now....I guess I'm too slow and dumb.....lol


While reading the thread..... and LEARNING....I read this quotes from Deepak Chopra... that fairly well to describe what you've gone through from the experience of this thread....

Hope I can emulate you on that...........


Gibril
Attached Image
Quoting alij79
vantage , can you please explain your methodology in detail with examples and how you take trades, as the issue im getting is that 1 or 2 loss/bad trades wipes all my profits everytime ..... i want to know how you identify the trend on daily and then take trades on 15m TF..

and when you dont see any trend on Daily TF then how do you take trades next day? im getting frustrated with few losses tht wipe my profit..... its happening time n again!!

in addition what SL and TP do you set?

looking forward to your assistance
If the comments below are inappropriate I'll remove post immediately. I trade MTF analysis with entries from 5 min. Approx 2 months ago switched to 15 min entry as per this thread. Good results became borderline unbelievable. An old dog can learn some new tricks, thank you my friend.

I start with an analysis of D chart for trend. Looking for:

 

  1. Good candles should follow through the next day e.g. an engulfing close (don't even worry about the correct definitions and perfection did you close above or below the previous 2 candle closes)
  2. Did the candle break the immediate range
  3. Did the D itself have a HL or LH close back into trend, i.e. did the D flow continue
  4. Did we have an evening/morning star pattern (yes ok I know thats also a close below/above the 2 previous closes)
  5. Are we above/below the RSI 50 level
  6. Are we above/below the tight D ma

Once some/most/all of these things happen the following day becomes more focused, the ability to be patient is easier as you are almost assured (well as much as you can possibly be in this game) that things have a great chance to play out in line with 15 min trend entry.

I literally run through my list as above every morning to look at prev days close for 3 pairs eur, gu, ej and try and get some clarity as to what may happen for the coming days trade. Yes sometimes pairs go into a sideways funk on D but generally 70% of time 1 day follows the next. Its not rocket science or anything weird, just common sense.

From D chart analysis I'll do similar on 4hr and 1hr looking to identify the flow of the market i.e. higher high higher lows, or lower highs lower lows.

OK see ej D chart attached for some analysis:

 

  1. Left arrow up. We are above 50 RSI, RSI above its ma, we have a hammer (wick rejects move lower), D ma sloping up nicely. Everything suggesting D trend up. Focus should be buying the next day as the only possible worry could be the failure of the hammer to really trade higher than the previous day.
  2. Left arrow down. D rsi crossed below its ma. 2 upper wicks, taken 3 days to turn (turns often take 3-7 days to play out), an engulfing neg close (close below the 2 prior candle closes). I trust an engulfing close (when price on any time frame can break its immediate range thats normally a good sign), I trust D rsi cross of its ma. OK this sell signal could be the start of a move down or it could be a pause in uptrend, that I don't know. Whats happening on 1hr and then entry from 15 min should keep me out of too much trouble. What follows is 5 days of sell focus from 15 min.
  3. Arrow up 2nd from left. Taken 4 days to bottom out and for RSI to cross up, we are also trading above our ma. The candle has an upper wick so its not a clear signal. Again could go up or be small rally in downtrend. Analysis of 1hr flow and 15 min entry again should give final guide. Even if you missed a day and waited for 2 Oct positive close you'd then have 4 days of buy focus. Or look at other pairs to see if they have given a clearer signal.
  4. Arrow down 2nd from left. Engulfing close, RSI cross focus on sells the next day.
  5. Arrow up 2nd from right. An engulfing close, morning star pattern from an identified support level. Bias on buys for next 5 days.
  6. Arrow down right. A D lower high, engulfing negative close, RSI touch trade below 50 level. Focus sell the next few days.
  7. Arrow up right. Morning star pattern, from support area, engulfing positive close, RSI cross on 50 level. Buy focus from then on.

Like I said once I have my D view then its a question of waiting for the trades to fall into place. I'll still look at 1hr flow but its 15 min entries as per this thread.


Stops typically beyond the last 15 min swing high/low, if its to large (above 25 pips or so) then we'll probably leave. The last swing high/low + some pivots/RN's/SR level should also be between your entry and stop to provide some buffers (2 or 3 would be good).


Take profits at the moment we are exiting half at first typical area around 30/40 pips that could cause a problem (RN, SR level, W pivot) and leaving balance to try to get to 2nd key level closer to 5 day ADR (again RN, SR level, W pivot).


If we don't see anything on any of the 3 pairs we have no problem with not trading for the day. At 2% risk a 60 pip day is a 6% return thats good enough for us. Many traders I have seen say they trade less frequently as they get older, that applies to us as well as neck/back issues that hinder chart time.


If you are inconsistent take a critical look at your winning and losing trades. What do the losing trades have in common? I was having many losing trades from 5 min on 3rd/4th move in London morning session. Guess what I cut that trade out. Now I couldn't care what that trade does as I know statistically its a high risk venture. I cut out 5 min higher low/lower high trades that were counter the London morning direction that were set up from weak 1hr candles pre/early US session. Again now I don't care what those trades do, for me they are a high risk bet (a solid engulfing post US news candle a different story). If we are not in already from Lon open we are waiting out pre/early US session CT moves and looking for London's direction to resume.

A through analysis of your losing trades can work wonders. Could be as easy as you are trying too many CT trades (London close has a proven CT strategy but thats a different issue i.e. its proven).


Hope this helps.

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BIG THANK YOU TO ALL BROTHERS AND SISTERS in giving me helping hand to this issue.

I may be able to analyse Charts, but for this part, it is something NEW subjects for me to learn.

The best people is in this thread....ever willing to help lovebees... Thanks a million.


Quoting sleewc
Dear Gibril;

My suggestion is to stop trading, walk away from the computer; free the mind first.
And then come back and analysed what went wrong with previous trade.
.
Agree... he must go to cooling off period............

Quoting jordfx
to identify exactly where or what the problem is. Is it an inherent flaw in the STRATEGY? Is it an issue of Money Management? Is it an issue of psychology? .
Two good point MM & Psychology......... I personally need to look at that myself..lol

Quoting leztuh

i remeber one of arjuns wise and valuable posts where he said "there is a way to minimize the loss.we have to stop trading after 2 losers.make it a dicipline."..." keep your money management proper"

i think this post was in context with ranging days...maybe it is possible to get through a drawdown cycle with this method to minimize the loss.

leztuh
Must be lack of discipline.. trying to turn Forex into Casino...lol



Quoting loveevery1
My Dear Brother Girbil....

Just tell him to watch his GREED....This will do the magic in his trading.Tell him to forget about money and trade for others....His money will grow...But he needs to take care of the needy...lol

Stay blessed as always
Agreed Sir....He styles of trading is when he took a position, he will continue piling it up for weeks, as if price will will hit the sky before reverse...lol He doesn't know where to TP ( or partial of TP)...must be the Greed...lol

Quoting zander2034
..........then they need to look at their money management

Also if their system works then it looks like it could be psychological. They may be scared or doubting themselves due to previous losses. They need to tell themselves that every moment in the market is unique and just because they lost their last trade this should not influence their judgement of their next trade in any way as they do not relate to each other at all.
zander...
Must be his eagerness to maximize profit and rest from trading for month of December...lol


Quoting aryary
...... maybe taking higher risk to recover initial losses and thats spiralling out of control.

.........the mindset will be different when hit with a series of losses.
His positive position, had made him over-confident that winning streak will continue.... ( sound like gambling)


Quoting Ciara
Hey Brother,

I would recommend him start using the indy u made... Arjuna Arrow Indy.
I will finish backtesting it tomorrow . Results are awesome..It took me 3 weeks..

Stay blessed, Ciara
Opsssss........that Expert Advisor...........that's like hitting his forehead with a piece of bricks...lol


Quoting emmanuel7788
......... he just experienced some of the adventures of a currency trader and he has to wake up from this nightmare.

There are 3 kind of traders:
1) Traders who see things happen.
2) Traders who make things happen.
3) Traders who do not know what happened.

My very best wishes to you and your friend..
In the beginning....he knows what he's doing to his best abilities.....but when he made so much....he's coming to get MORE....then he become numb....( or dumb)...lol


Quoting Ramjet
......a lot of the issues basically come down to MM and Psychology....


He has to step back...clear his head and have a good look at his MM....

Psychology is something we all have to work on and is a never ending process in life and trading but for now to have a bit of control

Cheers,
Adrian
Correct Adrian.........he loose self control.......system given him unbelievable winning streak and gone to over-drive mode and took higher risk..... He loose the steering wheel....lol

Quoting Vantage
There can only be 2 issues, the system or the trader.

Is it the system - needs to get very clear whats working and whats not. Perhaps a trend system thats awful in sideways market. Or the trader, thats the mental side, are basic trade rules, MM getting forgotten.

Hopefully once trades analysed (normally learn more from losing than winning) then there will be some clarity on what to avoid to improve %'s.
Trending period he is piling his PIPs...didn't get out when ranging...but keep adding loosing position trying to average the profit...lol



I'm happy with all your help Bro & sis.........I could write full chapter out of this on the subject of " How to avoid winning trades becoming a loosing trades....?"

Thank you again...... God blessed all of you.

giBriL
Quoting aryary
Hi people

Please pray for our dear family member Wonderwoman who is ill and currently in hospital (I will not give details). I would love and appreciate everyone praying for her. Have prayers that would remember her each day for better health.

Dear Wonderwoman

I hope you get well soon, and come back to your normal health. Keep faith and pray to God.

My Prayer For You
”May The Worst Day Of Your Future
Be Better Than
The Best Day Of Your Past …”
...

Dear Wonderwomen,
Wish you get well soon and see your posting.
Doing some homework for next week.
Euro is seating on most precarious situation.
http://www.reuters.com/subjects/euro-zone

EU budget summit ends without deal, retry in 2013

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/23/us-eu-budget-idUSBRE8AM0KL20121123
Euro zone faces deepest downturn since early 2009
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8AL08I20121123
The euro zone economy is on course for its weakest quarter since the dark days of early 2009, according to business surveys that showed companies toiling against shrinking order books in November.
(don't want to post the entire article but the link is above.I just want to get overall feel where Euro is heading.One thing to me for sure is down unless US economy becomes even worse shape then its matter of which is stronger of two.)




Now on Technicals.

over 60% retail traders short on Euro and EJ....Harboring only around 7% of total Forex market volume means nothing....What is important is what real institutional traders decide on Monday.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
Quoting Pervis
Thanks Emmanuel! I'm also not good in definition candlesticks, But I'm still confuse if this is call Bullish Rising Three Methods.

This one we must have 3 condition:
1. The first candle in the pattern is a long white candlestick within a defined uptrend.
2. A series of descending small-bodied candlesticks that trade within the range of the first candlestick.
3. A long white candlestick creates a new high, which suggests that bullish are back in control of the direction.
...
Hi Pervis,

Those 3 bar pullback which I marked are not what the generic textbook type patterns which they call Rising Threes / Falling Threes.

I use the 3-bars pullback on M15 to help look for price pullback to the 10EMA and look for a possible trigger and entry.

Price pullback can be seen in the M15 charts very often - sometime 1-bar, 2-bars, 4-bars and 5 bars ... type of pullback. The 3-bar are more frequent than 2-bars. Those 4 to 5 bars pullback often result in price closing on the opposite side of the 10EMA and then we see if there is S&R where it can bounce back into the 10EMA buy-sell zone. If the 50EMA of 200EMA are close by, then look for this pullback and bounce.
In a way this pullback help to look for trigger in ahead in time and is better than looking for that specific trigger which often happen very fast.

You will only see when you know what you are looking for ahead in time. When you see it, it is already too late.

Regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Hai nocanda & emamanuel,

well me too , reading up to 200 now and started burn my eyes...wat i do are 20 pages per day fwrd and 5 pages reverse..
i belived on reverse engineering....ha ha ha ...wat can i say

"whats ever comes up , must come down..gravity? WHY THERE COME DOWN ? ? ?

Example : lets trew a pen up now....in second its fall down ....WHY ???

KEEP READING NOW N UNDERSTAND IT.....
Quoting emmanuel7788
@nocanda,

well you got started reading, good on you.
if you read 10 pages per day, you need about 100 days to complete all current pages.
But we are full steam adding 5+ pages more per day.

What I did is to read as many pages of the history per day, then do fast forward and read the current day posts to keep up todate with the people here.

Enjoy!
Quoting Davit
Doing some homework for next week.
Euro is seating on most precarious situation.
http://www.reuters.com/subjects/euro-zone

EU budget summit ends without deal, retry in 2013

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/23/us-eu-budget-idUSBRE8AM0KL20121123
Euro zone faces deepest downturn since early 2009
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8AL08I20121123
The euro zone economy is on course for...
Good read. Thanks!

Corporate earnings in question. Just wait till the US big giants make their caution and leak results before X'mas.

If you all recall how the market traded weeks before the X'mas and year-end holidays. I will look closely at all EUR pairs especially my fav cross EURAUD ....

Trade Well!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting ramlanne
Hai nocanda & emamanuel,

well me too , reading up to 200 now and started burn my eyes...wat i do are 20 pages per day fwrd and 5 pages reverse..
i belived on reverse engineering....ha ha ha ...wat can i say

"whats ever comes up , must come down..gravity? WHY THERE COME DOWN ? ? ?

Example : lets trew a pen up now....in second its fall down ....WHY ???

KEEP READING NOW N UNDERSTAND IT.....

Hi,

I think that my science lessons 40 years ago say that is something called Gravity or it that Relativity?

In trading,

why do we call BUY as LONG... and SELL as SHORT?

Anyone can explain this?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
i'll do know the answer bro...but i always see it on another perspective....gravity is correct cos of the nature but not exactly ..lets others to try ???

" the wise learn by his experience , the genius learn from the others"

thanks.
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

I think that my science lessons 40 years ago say that is something called Gravity or it that Relativity?

In trading,

why do we call BUY as LONG... and SELL as SHORT?

Anyone can explain this?
Quoting mkfx
Hi brother,

Please can you share here which indicator made by Gibril, Arjuna arrow indicator, on which you are doing back testing , may be I can also do some back or forward testing of same on different pairs.

Sure brother,

here you go:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post6212752

For anything worth having one must pay the price; and the price is always work, patience, love, self-sacrifice - no paper currency, no promises to pay, but the gold of real service. (John Borroughs)

Ciara
Ideas shape the course of history
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