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  • #81
  • Jul 15, 2012 11:36am Jul 15, 2012 11:36am
Quoting Purple
Bullish engulfing pattern was not confirmed with a higher level of volume. It looks more like a position/short covering and profit booking rather than a engulfing candle which usually occurs with established new long positions.
Don't forget it was Friday, so its a little weird to expect higher volume as most traders are only thinking of happy hour and weekend.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #82
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:01pm Jul 15, 2012 2:01pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Don't forget it was Friday, so its a little weird to expect higher volume as most traders are only thinking of happy hour and weekend.
Thats exactly my point, most traders were absent, the days candle was not backed by any major fundamental data release and the whole day move was on a single 15 minute candle after FOMC Member Lockhart's conference at 1.30PM EST in thin latter Friday volume.

It's just a spike of little relevance and should not be looked upon as daily bullish engulfment pattern.
  • #83
  • Jul 24, 2012 4:38am Jul 24, 2012 4:38am
Gold is supported by sovereign buying and fundamentals:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-4.png
  • #84
  • Jul 28, 2012 12:25am Jul 28, 2012 12:25am
My Gold chart updated after the last week's chart posted above:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-5.png

Euro Daily:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...ple11/eMAY.png

Euro is fundamentally bearish, any TA is significantly insignificant. TA should have less weigh on one's decision making when trading EURO. Look for FA from Spain, Italy, Germany for lead ..
  • #85
  • Aug 5, 2012 11:12pm Aug 5, 2012 11:12pm
GBPUSD:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-6.png

EURUSD:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...ntitled-18.jpg

Inverted H&D Pattern in EURO.
  • #86
  • Aug 20, 2012 12:27am Aug 20, 2012 12:27am
As expected volatility had been down significantly in last few weeks, markets will pick up and break out of present ranges from September.

With the Olympics over in GB and the hype behind it, Julian Assange looming over Great Britain, David Cameroon government suffering from its lowest moral and impetus since the Newsweek scandal which BTW shows no signs of dying and resurrects itself every few months, look for the mangled mesh ArcelorMittal Orbit tower to be brought down in coming months/next year.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...e11/GBPUSD.png
  • #87
  • Aug 25, 2012 12:22am Aug 25, 2012 12:22am
Quoting Purple
Gold Chart:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-1.png

That 'Buy Zone' line was marked at the beginning of last week, which we touched on Friday in last 4 hours of weekly trading and it bounced from there..

We have a Symmetrical Triangle on Gold which 'by books' is a continuation of existing trend, but is not completely true. Look for a false breakout or a confirmation first, or buy at dips from green line with proper MM.


Quoting Purple
Gold is supported by sovereign buying and fundamentals:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-4.png

Quoting Purple
My Gold chart updated after the last week's chart posted above:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-5.png
Gold finally breaks out, with the target to 1753:

Time to erase old Fibs and draw new ones.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-9.png
  • #88
  • Aug 25, 2012 2:09am Aug 25, 2012 2:09am
Hey Purple, i see you were on top of the Break out - good call man.

Anyway, Gold seems like it has maintianed its gaining , i don't trade it - but i use it as an indicator to what can happen to EURUSD. Where do you think the next station for it ?

Because i think, since the fundamentals surrounding it " Uncertainty about EURO future and waiting for the German Court to give its verdict on bond purchasing , QE 3 up and in the air and Golbal growth Slowing down and some believe that the Chinese Data are worse than reported ... "

At least for the coming week , the path of least resistance is till where and Where is the comfortable support line that can provide a block of buyers ?

"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #89
  • Aug 25, 2012 3:35am Aug 25, 2012 3:35am
Quoting Purple

EURUSD:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...ntitled-18.jpg

Inverted H&D Pattern in EURO.
Quoting Vachus
Hey Purple, i see you were on top of the Break out - good call man.

Anyway, Gold seems like it has maintianed its gaining , i don't trade it - but i use it as an indicator to what can happen to EURUSD. Where do you think the next station for it ?

Because i think, since the fundamentals surrounding it " Uncertainty about EURO future and waiting for the German Court to give its verdict on bond purchasing , QE 3 up and in the air and Golbal growth Slowing down and some believe that the Chinese Data are worse than reported ... "

At least...
Hi Vachus, thanks for your kind comments..!

As for the EUR/USD please have a look at the chart I posted earlier ( I have quoted for ya convenience), as pointed out in that chart EURO was forming an inverted H&S pattern ..

Now when I look at the current chart :

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...picture-10.png

It has held the neckline support of that H&S Pattern at 123.20 area, which is now a strong support. If I were you, I will look to buy this pair on dips near 123.20-124.00 with the target to 127.00 and stay out of short.

As for Fundamentals, we are at the end of Summer Trading and the ranges which we saw in summer can become irrelevant and we can see continuation of downtrend from September, EURO is heavily influenced by fundamentals which will give it shape, unless their is more bad news from EU-zone we should see it going up till the elections in US atleast..
  • #90
  • Aug 25, 2012 4:09am Aug 25, 2012 4:09am
Thanks for sharing the EURUSD , and i think we agree on the Long setup between 1.25950 and 1.24000. However two points :

My question was about Gold - not EURUSD , as i saw you were following gold , i thought maybe to ask you on your projections on the matter ..

Two, I'm planning to catch a short position in the area between 1.25200 and 1.25950 - as i'm expecting a failed retest of 1.24950-1.24650 that may push back the price to retest 1.25600. ( Which Should be an idle place for short - with the risk of course of breaking out )

The reason behind my setup is : the current channel the price is caught into is a bit wild and bounces up and down almost 100 pip. But a short position from 1.25500 /400 should be higher enough to validate if the next station is 1.24XX or 1.27XX

Thanks for the reply and nice charts BTW
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #91
  • Aug 30, 2012 9:44am Aug 30, 2012 9:44am
We have a bubble in US markets:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...20829_BRIC.png
  • #92
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:11am Sep 13, 2012 10:11am
Quoting Purple
Gold finally breaks out, with the target to 1753:

Time to erase old Fibs and draw new ones.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...dpicture-9.png
Target hit.
  • #93
  • Sep 21, 2012 4:53am Sep 21, 2012 4:53am
With the 57th Presidential US election due on November 6, which is less than 2 months from now, I do not expect expect any sharp moves to the down-side in coming days/months.

Short term traders who undermine Fundamentals often find themselves caught in short squeeze. I am expecting present uptrend to continue. The channel which we have seen mature in summer months should hold on till November beginning at least.

The Announcement of ECB Bond Buying program has brought stability to Euro Bond yields for a longer time frame than actually realized by most retail traders. Central Banks seldom intervene with a short term view and they seldom give up in short term time-frame. The best examples of successful Central Bank interventions in recent past can be seen in EUR/CHF and USD/JPY.

Yen has managed to hold further gain for good 11 months since Japanese Central Bank first intervened in October 2011. EUR/CHF had held itself longer for more than a year now since Swiss Bank Intervention in first week of August 2011. Time and time again history has showed us that Central Banks prevails over speculators with the exception of famous George Soros incident, but there is no Soros today and I don’t see anyone having the guts to become another Soros and fight the ECB today considering he will be vilified by the society for making money in the present society dominated by 1% Vs. 99% war.

The biggest immediate Fundamental threat and the news which might affect the Financial Markets next can be the emerging dispute in Asia. The repercussions of a conflict in prominent shipping area of South China Sea can send economic ripples with rising inflation. It will become difficult for countries/traders to import cheap goods from China. An escalation of naval warfare there will only help USA economy wise and we will see a rise in value of USD and Gold. If I had to choose between them, I will be the first to buy USD.

My advice to traders would be to forget about the Euro Crisis for the time being, till November at the least, trade the ranges, uptrends, look to go long rather than short on the Fundamental side.
  • #94
  • Sep 21, 2012 5:19am Sep 21, 2012 5:19am
Quoting Purple
With the 57th Presidential US election due on November 6, which is less than 2 months from now, I do not expect expect any sharp moves to the down-side in coming days/months.

Short term traders who undermine Fundamentals often find themselves caught in short squeeze. I am expecting present uptrend to continue. The channel which we have seen mature in summer months should hold on till November beginning at least.

The Announcement of ECB Bond Buying program has brought stability to Euro Bond yields for a longer time frame than actually realized...
The Euro crisis hasn't even started yet. Why do you think they had to ignore democracy and national constitutions to stabilize it? There is a lot more bad news to come out of the European banking establishments including the ECB itself. Most of the 17 EZ nations have had credit downgrades or are on negative watch. Banks are loaded with toxic assets, most of which are bad mortgages and sovereign bonds which will soon require another haircut for Greece and first time haircuts for Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy... possibly even Cyprus and Belgium itself. The worst part is that the ECB is accepting all these toxic assets as collateral against fresh liquidity, most of which is flying out of the EuroZone to safe haven funds in the US, Canada and Japan, and the rest to Germany and Sweden.

Fact is that the ECB is also (within their mandate) easing monetary policy which will offset any USD negative (or Euro positive) effect on currencies. However in the end, when you compare GDP growth, rate differentials and safe haven status, where do you think the capital will flow when the equities and commodities bubble starts to quiver? Certainly not to the Euro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #95
  • Sep 23, 2012 10:54pm Sep 23, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The Euro crisis hasn't even started yet. Why do you think they had to ignore democracy and national constitutions to stabilize it? There is a lot more bad news to come out of the European banking establishments including the ECB itself. Most of the 17 EZ nations have had credit downgrades or are on negative watch. Banks are loaded with toxic assets, most of which are bad mortgages and sovereign bonds which will soon require another haircut for Greece and first time haircuts for Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy... possibly even Cyprus and Belgium...
There are no fixes in short term for the problems in Spain, Italy, France, Ireland, or Greece. But Euro crisis was more of a political crisis than numbers. ECB did put its political differences aside and has committed to do something for the long term. And they appear to be investing in what they have committed. Combine that with FED committing to QE3 and we have a good safety net that will prevent markets from crashing in medium term. ECB has given a direction to Euro and more than any Technical or Fundamental reason, it is the combined global government intervention that is driving markets right now.
  • #96
  • Oct 3, 2012 2:01am Oct 3, 2012 2:01am
http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...ainhistory.png

Source: University of Groningen
  • #97
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:02am Oct 23, 2012 1:02am
Although the chances are slim to none, but if Mitt Romney wins this election than expect the NYSE Composite to return to 6600 in first 6 months of his office. Republican Party has no agenda for post election, their only agenda is to win the election.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2.../president.jpg

Image Source: Blogger mentioned in the pic.
  • #98
  • Oct 23, 2012 2:27am Oct 23, 2012 2:27am
Pound has broken uptrend line and is consolidating right now, expect the new downtrend to continue, sell near the falling trendline from above if it gives that entry.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c236/purple11/1-3.png

For Euro there is a good support at 129.30 - 129.50 area, look to long there. Rising 200MA on 4HR should offer bouncing levels.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c236/purple11/2-2.png
  • #99
  • Nov 9, 2012 9:52pm Nov 9, 2012 9:52pm
GBPUSD:

As posted earlier Pound continues to pounce lower on any uptick above the falling trendline from 21st September.. look to continue shorting opportunities near the falling trendline with SL if it closes above 1.60750 on daily basis.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...picture-11.png

GOLD:

Gold has consolidated from its recent bull run from 1550 to 1800 and stoped at its 61% level and reversed from there in continuation of its bull run, with the elections over in US and Obama back in the White House we have a stable govt now. Look to long gold near 1690 or at the break of 1750.

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...edpicture2.png
  • #100
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:45pm Nov 10, 2012 3:45pm
There is still room to grow:

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c2...tocksandQE.png

SOURCE: ZeroHedge
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