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GBP/JPY

  • #261
  • Aug 31, 2012 11:34am Aug 31, 2012 11:34am
Crazy market... There might be a Bearish channel forming or perhaps Bullish flag pattern... This pair moves less and less and less. If I remember correctly, only once in 9 years pair moved less then this week, it was about 98 pips (this week 111 pips)
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  • #262
  • Aug 31, 2012 11:46am Aug 31, 2012 11:46am
Quoting Schneeule
Hello,

is there anyone who could and would do some long term prediction for this pair based on economic data, possible BOj interventions and I don't know what else... Thank you kindly.
My view (but I am just learning, what do I know)... mid term (a week or two) we'll be in a range or down in a Triangle, Long term Up.
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  • #263
  • Sep 1, 2012 9:17pm Sep 1, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting Schneeule
Hello,

is there anyone who could and would do some long term prediction for this pair based on economic data, possible BOj interventions and I don't know what else... Thank you kindly.
Why don't you have a go first. Maybe others (myself included) might then be happy to respond.
  • #264
  • Sep 1, 2012 10:21pm Sep 1, 2012 10:21pm
Has anyone tried pivots? I've had alot of success using pivots on this pair. I only trade the LO. I usually wait for a confirmation using candlesticks. Be careful not to be fooled on fake breakouts. If its near the PP during the Asian session, it will usually break for 30 to 70 pips. Look for convergence during the Asian session near the pivot point. That's a good sign that it's going to make a run during the LO. It usually start around 3 or 4am est, or 1 to 2 hrs after the LO. My goal is 50 pips a week and then I'm out of the market. Pretty conservative. I usually take profits at S1 or S2, if I'm feeling gutsy, I will let it ride to the S2 or R2 level. I will be following this thread a lot and hope to learn from others and pass on what I've experienced. This pair seem like the only one I can make pips consistently with few losses, power in the pivots. I use the NY close to Plot my pivots.
  • #265
  • Sep 3, 2012 4:21am Sep 3, 2012 4:21am
Quoting Mpt
Why don't you have a go first. Maybe others (myself included) might then be happy to respond.
Well, I see it bullish, but I base my opinion only on technical analysis. There is nice trend double bottom on h4, daily bars over ema34 (i like it pretty much) and weak weekly short looking for failure, etc.

If the trade goes well I see first resistance from 127 to 128 on daily tf.

And there is my problem, are the fundamentals of gbp and jpy in such a state, that the move might continue? Like are there signs of GB eco recovery, possible BOJ intervention (and where? I suspect they will watch some UJ levels) and such things. Thanks
  • #266
  • Sep 3, 2012 4:43am Sep 3, 2012 4:43am
Quoting Schneeule
Well, I see it bullish, but I base my opinion only on technical analysis. There is nice trend double bottom on h4, daily bars over ema34 (i like it pretty much) and weak weekly short looking for failure, etc.

If the trade goes well I see first resistance from 127 to 128 on daily tf.

And there is my problem, are the fundamentals of gbp and jpy in such a state, that the move might continue? Like are there signs of GB eco recovery, possible BOJ intervention (and where? I suspect they will watch some UJ levels) and such things. Thanks
What if pair is short term descending? What if recent moves up were just 61.8 (first push) and 50.0 (second push) retracements? I also see it bullish mid term/ long term.
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  • #267
  • Sep 3, 2012 5:32am Sep 3, 2012 5:32am
Comments on the chart...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #268
  • Edited 8:35pm Sep 3, 2012 8:11pm | Edited 8:35pm
Quoting Schneeule
Well, I see it bullish, but I base my opinion only on technical analysis. There is nice trend double bottom on h4, daily bars over ema34 (i like it pretty much) and weak weekly short looking for failure, etc.

If the trade goes well I see first resistance from 127 to 128 on daily tf.

And there is my problem, are the fundamentals of gbp and jpy in such a state, that the move might continue? Like are there signs of GB eco recovery, possible BOJ intervention (and where? I suspect they will watch some UJ levels) and such things. Thanks

I see it as bullish. Why? The last few weeks of incredibly slow movements have seen GJ forming in what appears, to me at least, a cup/handle formation. Very boring, but most corrective.

I get the feeling that the break up may start shortly, first to break the descending trendline and then to break above the weekly 50 ema.
In fact the whole up move from 118.75 has been corrective of the prior down move. The big question is .... how far up will it correct to.

If we assume breakout from the present formation is about 400 or so pips in depth, that puts it around the 129 area. Yes, one would assume that major resistance would appear first at around 125.8 and then at around 127~128. Why 400 pips? Because the pattern theory indicates as such. Yes, I know it's a weak argument. But it would fit into the possible up-sloping channel, 'til it meets the yellow TL coming down from 133.5.

Since getting back to 163, GJ has been in a declining wedge pattern. The only problem with the wedge/channel has been that any trendlines drawn for it have needed changing constantly. Because it's in an overall rounding bottom.

From a wave perspective, the drop from 163 has been viewed as the last and final major wave of the downtrend from 251, probably a wave 5. If so, then it would, in turn, contain 5 waves. These have not always been clear, but I take the view that the move down from 140 to 116 was the third, or C wave, meaning that GJ has two waves to go ( D & E).

If you consider that the subsequent moves up to 127 and 133.4 (labelled as a,b,c on the chart) were the completed D wave, then all moves down since are part of the E, or final move, which may terminate at around the 100 area. And if that argument is correct, then price for this up move should end at or around the 61.8 retracement area, being 127.8 or so before dropping furiously.

But what if it doesn't? It's always about support and resistance. I can see major resistance/support forming right here, with no obvious resistance until back near the top. If price continues up as per the drawn channel, only to fall back to the current area as support, it is possible that we may see a final long and slow upmove to a double top or thereabouts. Yes, 133. And if that were the case, it may be assumed that the overall D wave correction is continuing with not just three waves (a, b, c), but five (a, b, c, d, e). And this move right now is only the second part of the overall d wave. Long, slow, corrective, boring.

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That being the case, GJ may well be stuck in this overall corrective D wave pattern for another YEAR.
  • #269
  • Sep 3, 2012 9:00pm Sep 3, 2012 9:00pm
The markets are moving very slow that making predicitions is a real problem at this stage. You can take a chance and yes I agree with you. The markets are not as excited and in most pairs things can go anyway anytime.

Even the simplest pairs have become very unpredictable. We need some event to excite the market a little I think.

Quoting karmostaji
I couldn't find an active GJ thread, so please share your analysis of this beautiful pair with us

After last weeks rally, we just had a 50% fibo retracement, I'm expecting the bullish move to continue and target is the daily 50% / 61.8% fibo level.

We have a daily candle close above daily gann hilo, would love a daily candle close above daily 50ema, it would be a good confirmation.

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/9469/17882622.gif

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/9065/gjdaily.gif
  • #270
  • Sep 5, 2012 1:58am Sep 5, 2012 1:58am
Pivot: 124.2

Our preference: Long positions above 124.2 with targets @ 124.6 & 124.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 124.2 look for further downside with 123.9 & 123.6 as targets.


Key levels
125.15
124.85
124.6
124.282 last
124.2
123.9
123.6
Attached Image
  • #271
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:44am Sep 6, 2012 12:44am
Pivot: 124.25

Our preference: Long positions above 124.25 with targets @ 124.85 & 125 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 124.25 look for further downside with 123.9 & 123.6 as targets.


Key levels
125.25
125
124.85
124.692 last
124.25
123.9
123.6
Attached Image
  • #272
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:11pm Sep 6, 2012 8:11pm
What do you think about the GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY & USD/JPY pairs? They look very BULLISH in my eyes and I think there is money to be made in that direction . Your view?
Quoting karmostaji
I couldn't find an active GJ thread, so please share your analysis of this beautiful pair with us

After last weeks rally, we just had a 50% fibo retracement, I'm expecting the bullish move to continue and target is the daily 50% / 61.8% fibo level.

We have a daily candle close above daily gann hilo, would love a daily candle close above daily 50ema, it would be a good confirmation.

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/9469/17882622.gif

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/9065/gjdaily.gif
  • #273
  • Sep 8, 2012 5:42am Sep 8, 2012 5:42am
Hi all. GBP is my favorite currency. I have place them over JPY. I see it drops from 126.09 to 124.92 within 3 hours. It cost me a lot. What's your analyst it will come about next monday?
  • #274
  • Sep 9, 2012 6:19pm Sep 9, 2012 6:19pm
Potential for break to the north is likely, will wait till break trend line on the weekly
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  • #275
  • Sep 9, 2012 6:35pm Sep 9, 2012 6:35pm
It's seem south but if it north, i'll be in fortune. Last friday I suppose to make short position with profit $200+ (long at 125.06 vol 8 lots).But I keep open being believe it will head north even more this week.
  • #276
  • Sep 9, 2012 7:36pm Sep 9, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting jphotdeals
Potential for break to the north is likely, will wait till break trend line on the weekly
I think u on the money.....will be watch Hard
  • #277
  • Sep 10, 2012 12:06am Sep 10, 2012 12:06am
Quoting danzy
It's seem south but if it north, i'll be in fortune. Last friday I suppose to make short position with profit $200+ (long at 125.06 vol 8 lots).But I keep open being believe it will head north even more this week.
I assume this is demo account? I see you are new trader, playing with 8 standard lots as a new trader will probably quickly empty your account...
  • #278
  • Sep 10, 2012 12:46am Sep 10, 2012 12:46am

Pivot: 125.8

Our preference: Short positions below 125.8 with targets @ 124.9 & 124.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 125.8 look for further upside with 126.15 & 126.5 as targets.

Key levels
126.5
126.15
125.8
125.147 last
124.9
124.25
123.95

Attached Image
  • #279
  • Sep 10, 2012 1:07am Sep 10, 2012 1:07am
Quoting katejackson

Pivot: 125.8

Our preference: Short positions below 125.8 with targets @ 124.9 & 124.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 125.8 look for further upside with 126.15 & 126.5 as targets.

Key levels
126.5
126.15
125.8
125.147 last
124.9
124.25
123.95

Apart from the fact that this data is two days old, why do you persist in posting stuff from another web site?

http://www.forexyard.com/analyzer/en....html?iframe=0
  • #280
  • Sep 10, 2012 1:42am Sep 10, 2012 1:42am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
I assume this is demo account? I see you are new trader, playing with 8 standard lots as a new trader will probably quickly empty your account...
Yes I'm new trader. I have both demo and real. The one I mention is demo one, in the real I won't trade that much. But so unfortunate in doesn't goes north neither south...
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