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Sonic R. System

  • #39,001
  • Aug 29, 2012 8:38am Aug 29, 2012 8:38am
Quoting RoelsMajor
EU H4 and EU M15: "Zones are like fine wine; they get better with age".
Yep.
  • #39,002
  • Aug 29, 2012 9:40am Aug 29, 2012 9:40am
Quoting traderathome
EU: Added trade #2 per attached.

Hello Traderathome, Excuse me. Why not this signal?
Attached Image
  • #39,003
  • Edited 10:26am Aug 29, 2012 9:57am | Edited 10:26am
Quoting ducke
Hello Traderathome, Excuse me. Why not this signal?
The signal you showed is the proper one, ducke. It was a valid long setup on the M15 chart.

I already commented on my trade. Essentially, I entered on a pre-LS short setup and went to bed. Bad things can happen trading the asian session setups. They practically always look good, but are often reversed in the LS. Why did I trade it? I did so due to the "larger picture". I see EU as bearish, not bullish. I have commented on this over the past week, or so. My trade was consistent with the bearish sentiment. It just so happened that the market decided to make another trip up to the shorting well, and fill up there once again. There is the possibility this week will complete a 250+ pips swing down. Yet, I could be totally wrong about this.

At the time of my trade, PA had broken down thru a "support/demand" zone and was backtesting it from below. Had the zone converted to a "resistance/supply" zone, the trade would have been fine. The thing is that we cannot know the "stability" of these zones. And that is because the big money players that pretty much control the pricing in the market can suddenly pull buy orders off the cheque and move them elsewhere. Or they can suddenly place orders around current PA that they just moved from somewhere else. Knowing where supply and demand zones were last located is useful. But we cannot depend on "what" they will be when PA next comes back to them. What they will be depends on what the market decides them to be. The market can move or change huge blocks of orders in milliseconds. There was the possibility my trade would be "benched" by a move back up. But there was the possibility too, that this would have been the time the market would have pulled the rug. It did not. It very likely still will though, imho.
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  • #39,004
  • Aug 29, 2012 10:59am Aug 29, 2012 10:59am
Quoting traderathome
The signal you showed is the proper one, ducke. It was a valid long setup on the M15 chart.

I already commented on my trade. Essentially, I entered on a pre-LS short setup and went to bed. Bad things can happen trading the asian session setups. They practically always look good, but are often reversed in the LS. Why did I trade it? I did so due to the "larger picture". I see EU as bearish, not bullish. I have commented on this over the past week, or so. My trade was consistent with the bearish sentiment. It just so happened that the market...
TAH - From that it sounds like you manually exit trades rather than use stops - something I read somewhere else in this thread that Sonic himself does I think. I can see the logic but have tried same and woken up to nasty losses. I too am short eu but wondering about wisdom of turning in with it currently at break even. What is your criteria for running this risk. My MM says 1% but with no stop that is kind of irrelevant
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #39,005
  • Aug 29, 2012 11:37am Aug 29, 2012 11:37am
Quoting traderathome
EU: Added trade #2 per attached.
To me it looks another round of buying is taking place - although price drops.

Letīs see what happens :nerd:

H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #39,006
  • Aug 29, 2012 11:54am Aug 29, 2012 11:54am
Quoting revoli
TAH - From that it sounds like you manually exit trades rather than use stops - something I read somewhere else in this thread that Sonic himself does I think. I can see the logic but have tried same and woken up to nasty losses. I too am short eu but wondering about wisdom of turning in with it currently at break even. What is your criteria for running this risk. My MM says 1% but with no stop that is kind of irrelevant
Master Sonicdeejay has remarked he considers for EU an 80 pips SL to be a "tight" SL.

A trader picking tops and bottoms can use a close-in SL, maybe 10 pips or less. The pick is either a good one, or PA does not have to move far to make the trader totally uncertain again.

However, with the Sonic R. System, we must wait for a valid setup, which means waiting for PA to move, pullback and move more, and for PA to be above the Dragon for a long/below the Dragon for a short. So, by the time we are looking at a Sonic R. setup EP zone, PA has already struck a "range" in which it can reverse again. Herein lays the problem with close-in SLs. And each individual trader must make their own decision as to how to handle the situation. A wider SL with a smaller trade? Waiting for additional confirmation from PA that resistance overhead, or support below, will hold and thus allow more confidence in the SL placement in that area? If there is a single best answer, I have no knowledge of it.
  • #39,007
  • Aug 29, 2012 12:07pm Aug 29, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting hansma
To me it looks another round of buying is taking place - although price drops.

Letīs see what happens :nerd:

H.
Yes, Hansma. Really and truely, that is all we ever can do. Sit and wait to see what happens. A bull bias can have substantiation, while at the same time a bear bias can also. We, as individuals, "while away the time" constructing a bias, but it is the "Market" that decides the outcome.

For me, I am encouraged seeing that in the early LS the highest volume came with the highest prices. And then too, in the US session, the same thing. But, it could be "fools gold".

Thank you for your "heads up" viewpoint, Hansma. Always valued, whether supportive or opposing. No one can ever know if they've considered everything; if something has been overlooked.

Now we wait......
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  • #39,008
  • Aug 29, 2012 12:19pm Aug 29, 2012 12:19pm
UCad Comment:

It is late in US session. LS is closed. And here we suddenly have an unusually strong bullish move (M15). I've attached an H1 also, to show an FE study that puts the FE 200% level around RWH. A modest 125+ pips inter-day swing from the week lows could put prices up there before the week ends.
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  • #39,009
  • Aug 29, 2012 12:47pm Aug 29, 2012 12:47pm
AU Comment:

Sonicers, something is up! Here too, we have late session important high activity. This just started a drop towards the week lows.
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  • #39,010
  • Edited 6:49pm Aug 29, 2012 6:30pm | Edited 6:49pm
[ATTACH][/ATTACH]
Quoting traderathome
AU Comment:

Sonicers, something is up! Here too, we have late session important high activity. This just started a drop towards the week lows.
im confused, i cant follow you, why is your chart different that mine tah?
anyways heres my eu post for today as per asian session:
eu long at 2529ep SL-15.

ps: disregard i noticed the time difference of posts
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  • #39,011
  • Aug 29, 2012 7:08pm Aug 29, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered short per attached. No TP decided upon yet.
AU: TP1 reached. Trade closed for 44 pips gain EP1 to TP1.
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  • #39,012
  • Aug 30, 2012 1:09am Aug 30, 2012 1:09am
Hi guys,

May I ask if setup wise is the entry correct? Not the best place as support zone on the hourly is kind of close, but trying to get hang of the method.

Thank you.

edit: uploaded if all goes well
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  • #39,013
  • Aug 30, 2012 1:38am Aug 30, 2012 1:38am
Quoting Ati_82
Hi guys,

May I ask if setup wise is the entry correct? Not the best place as support zone on the hourly is kind of close, but trying to get hang of the method. Thank you. edit: uploaded if all goes well
Be careful, as this could turn out to be a USD strengthening day. There has been very high volume at the lows in past few days. Much more so than at the highs. This could mean the market is preparing for a USD bullish move, not a bearish move. There is a USD high impact release coming, which could be a trigger.
  • #39,014
  • Aug 30, 2012 2:06am Aug 30, 2012 2:06am
Quoting traderathome
Be careful, as this could turn out to be a USD strengthening day. There has been very high volume at the lows in past few days. Much more so than at the highs. This could mean the market is preparing for a USD bullish move, not a bearish move. There is a USD high impact release coming, which could be a trigger.
Yes, TAH...but I think the market manipulators work very nicely today...Germany unemployment Up, but there is no short good move...
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  • #39,015
  • Aug 30, 2012 2:07am Aug 30, 2012 2:07am
Quoting traderathome
Be careful, as this could turn out to be a USD strengthening day. There has been very high volume at the lows in past few days. Much more so than at the highs. This could mean the market is preparing for a USD bullish move, not a bearish move. There is a USD high impact release coming, which could be a trigger.
Thanks, I do agree with you. Risk on charts are kind of mixed which do concern me to a certain degree. I will pull this into breakeven if it breaks daily lows, which i think it will.

On the other hand, the setup itself is correct by Sonic rules?
  • #39,016
  • Aug 30, 2012 2:18am Aug 30, 2012 2:18am
Quoting alrightfrank

im confused, i cant follow you, why is your chart different that mine tah?
anyways heres my eu post for today as per asian session:
eu long at 2529ep SL-15.

ps: disregard i noticed the time difference of posts
SL on trail mode... both entries set to BE +1
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  • #39,017
  • Aug 30, 2012 2:45am Aug 30, 2012 2:45am
Quoting Ati_82
Thanks, I do agree with you. Risk on charts are kind of mixed which do concern me to a certain degree. I will pull this into breakeven if it breaks daily lows, which i think it will.

On the other hand, the setup itself is correct by Sonic rules?
Yes, the setup is valid, Ati_82. I am concerned that the setup might be running on "stopping" volume, though.
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  • #39,018
  • Aug 30, 2012 2:52am Aug 30, 2012 2:52am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Yes, TAH...but I think the market manipulators work very nicely today...Germany unemployment Up, but there is no short good move...
It is logical the BBs won't give up their playing grounds until the USD high impact release. Perhaps that will be the trigger for pro-USD moves.
  • #39,019
  • Aug 30, 2012 3:31am Aug 30, 2012 3:31am
Quoting alrightfrank
SL on trail mode... both entries set to BE +1
stopped out @ +33 pips
3rd entry:
eu entered long at 1.2539ep @ SL-15
again let the market decides....
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  • #39,020
  • Aug 30, 2012 3:50am Aug 30, 2012 3:50am
EU M15
A long set-up has failed to run...
Now let's start looking for short...

Long make money, short make money, do nothing and stand aside for watching money...pick yours buddy
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