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Silent Service Method

  • #14,361
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:44am Aug 14, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Venice
From a technical perspective, and what I have been talking about for the last few weeks... is the compression being put into place as well. I think we will see .077 levels but not much more than that. Then it will unwind something fierce.
I thought I remembered someone else had mentioned this pair before
  • #14,362
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:53pm Aug 14, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting clockwork71
Without going into details, I am becoming increasingly worried about the news section of this site.
I rarely read it anymore, most of it is just speculation by commercial websites. I used to go there to try and get an idea of what was going on but I found my well thought out analysis sometimes being swayed by the, let's face it, opinions of the posters on that page and the comments left on those posts.

The other day some bloke said he though the s+p500 had no business being above 1400. I'd bought it a few days previously just under 1390, a 55 period donch channel break. Guess what, we're still above 1400. Now this doesn't mean that I will ultimately make money on this trade but it goes to show that the s+p500 definitely does have business above 1400 whatever anyone says because it is still there!

I think you always need to trust your own analysis/system and stick to it and the news page has mines everywhere just ready to blow out your confidence in what you are doing. These days I do a Darvas and don't look so much. I am interested in interest rates and anything that could affect interest rates, other than that I leave it alone.
  • #14,363
  • Aug 14, 2012 12:56pm Aug 14, 2012 12:56pm
Mind you, the Aud chat above is very interesting but I've always found this thread to attract the thinking mans trader.
  • #14,364
  • Aug 14, 2012 7:45pm Aug 14, 2012 7:45pm
Quoting stewrigh
I thought I remembered someone else had mentioned this pair before
Aye Of course, I am totally just a follower of PA. And while I think this (barely) continued move north is nonsense... it's still the direction it's pointing too. Weekly wants that .077 level, so we may go through a minor retrace first to get there. I just hate when it's so obvious that price is being forced a direction. The Indices look the same as well.
  • #14,365
  • Aug 14, 2012 7:51pm Aug 14, 2012 7:51pm
P.S. i think the Euro is finally ready to make it's move north. Well... in a normal environment anyways. It's shown it's hand that it wants north, and the retrace should be coming to an end. But who knows.

Unfortunately, at this point in time... PA says the loading zone should be the current price 2316 down too 2267, and below that the play is wrong.

I could make a play here with 2316 as the risk, and if that falls through try more close to the 2267 level.

I really just don't know anymore though... intraday looks a mess as usual. i mean... it use to look a mess, but it still indicated what it was trying to do. Right now, it just looks as if someone placed some C4 in the middle of of a petro storage field.
  • #14,366
  • Aug 14, 2012 8:29pm Aug 14, 2012 8:29pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I think you always need to trust your own analysis/system and stick to it and the news page has mines everywhere just ready to blow out your confidence in what you are doing.
Great quote, double thumbs up to you my friend
  • #14,367
  • Aug 14, 2012 9:01pm Aug 14, 2012 9:01pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Mind you, the Aud chat above is very interesting but I've always found this thread to attract the thinking mans trader.
Thinking.....drinking......it's all the same I suppose!
  • #14,368
  • Aug 14, 2012 9:08pm Aug 14, 2012 9:08pm
So last week......I bought tickets to The Who here in Columbus as they are doing a "Quadrophenia" tour. The cost of the tickets are outrageous, but I have never seen The Who, despite having 4th row tickets to a show in Cleveland for their reunion tour many years ago in the late 80s when they came back. It seems my mother was a bit pissed about me skipping school to get tickets.......I never really forgave her for taking those tickets......although I understand.

What I find ridiculous is the fact that back then, I could spend the night at the ticket box office and get great seats. Now the first 50 rows are all corporate shills. On top of that, and the cost......

Last week I bought these tickets for a February 17, 2013 show! Having to buy the tickets 6 months ahead of time is a joke.......seriously. Amazing what they have done to the music industry.
  • #14,369
  • Aug 14, 2012 10:01pm Aug 14, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting Venice
P.S. i think the Euro is finally ready to make it's move north. Well... in a normal environment anyways. It's shown it's hand that it wants north, and the retrace should be coming to an end. But who knows.
I have to agree about the Euro, I think it wants to go up too. The thing is everyone is hating on it......this hate is built into the current price.....people will get sick of hating it eventually and up it will go. If not wandering that way already?

At the moment I am aiming to buy the CHF.
Match it up with another vulnerable currency say the AUD and we could have fireworks.
If the MA & recent weekly low give way on the AUD/CHF, I am dumping this pair. The current PA looks like its hitting the ceiling. I also remember Chris calling this the risk barometer. So if we get risk off this thing is in trouble.
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  • #14,370
  • Aug 14, 2012 10:04pm Aug 14, 2012 10:04pm
Quoting clockwork71
So last week......I bought tickets to The Who here in Columbus as they are doing a "Quadrophenia" tour. The cost of the tickets are outrageous, but I have never seen The Who, despite having 4th row tickets to a show in Cleveland for their reunion tour many years ago in the late 80s when they came back. It seems my mother was a bit pissed about me skipping school to get tickets.......I never really forgave her for taking those tickets......although I understand.

What I find ridiculous is the fact that back then, I could spend the night at the...
Yeah it makes you nostalgic for Woodstock, IOW Thats when music was the real deal.
  • #14,371
  • Aug 14, 2012 10:09pm Aug 14, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting mypipbull
I have to agree about the Euro, I think it wants to go up too. The thing is everyone is hating on it......this hate is built into the current price.....people will get sick of hating it eventually and up it will go. If not wandering that way already?

At the moment I am aiming to buy the CHF.
Match it up with another vulnerable currency say the AUD and we could have fireworks.
If the MA & recent weekly low give way on the AUD/CHF, I am dumping this pair. The current PA looks like its hitting the ceiling. I also remember Chris calling this the risk...
I just don't understand why anyone would buy the Euro ATM, unless Greece actually left. But then focus would be on Spain and Italy I guess.

And if Germany left it would really collapse and IMHO I think that is the more likely scenario.
  • #14,372
  • Aug 14, 2012 11:24pm Aug 14, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting stewrigh
I just don't understand why anyone would buy the Euro ATM, unless Greece actually left. But then focus would be on Spain and Italy I guess.

And if Germany left it would really collapse and IMHO I think that is the more likely scenario.
I agree, I've given up trying to figure out what's likely to happen to the euro next, its irrelevant what I think anyway. Price will go where it wants too up down or otherwise. I just think it could go up, if you look at the PA it's printing higher highs and higher lows, for how long who knows (that's a catchy phrase!). I'm on the side anyway.
There are much better opportunities elsewhere.
  • #14,373
  • Aug 15, 2012 4:30am Aug 15, 2012 4:30am
Quoting mypipbull
I agree, I've given up trying to figure out what's likely to happen to the euro next, its irrelevant what I think anyway. Price will go where it wants too up down or otherwise. I just think it could go up, if you look at the PA it's printing higher highs and higher lows, for how long who knows (that's a catchy phrase!). I'm on the side anyway.
There are much better opportunities elsewhere.
Agreed. We often will get far too caught up in what "should" happen, as opposed to what IS happening. Those are far too often completely different.
  • #14,374
  • Aug 15, 2012 4:36am Aug 15, 2012 4:36am
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed. We often will get far too caught up in what "should" happen, as opposed to what IS happening. Those are far too often completely different.
Agreed as well. But what *is* happening on the charts, Daily and H4 is Higher highs and higher lows. That just means, for my strategy, that the proper risk play is to the north atm while we are sitting near the bottom.

However, I am allowed to be wrong... All price has to do is switch around and i'll follow to the south again.

Risk Management is the holy grail to trading. Irrelevant of bias, or what the chart 'says'... keeping r/r and win rate in check keeps us on top at the end of the year every time.
  • #14,375
  • Aug 15, 2012 8:27am Aug 15, 2012 8:27am
Looks like USDCAD is testing .98 area on Weekly chart,

Waiting patiently here, lets see how it will react on that area

If .98 becomes "obvious" support then LONG, if breached then .94 is another money making opportunity, so watch out guys, as we always say here, "we are beeing paid to wait"
  • #14,376
  • Aug 15, 2012 12:35pm Aug 15, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting Benjnia-fx
Looks like USDCAD is testing .98 area on Weekly chart,

Waiting patiently here, lets see how it will react on that area

If .98 becomes "obvious" support then LONG, if breached then .94 is another money making opportunity, so watch out guys, as we always say here, "we are beeing paid to wait"
I've been shorting the hell out of EUR/CAD......if the USD/CAD breaks down....that is where the real action is. It has recently broke all-time lows. (Or at least as far back as I can see.) In fact, I just closed out a trade....but am going to short it again after this little bounce that's about to happen....
  • #14,377
  • Aug 15, 2012 1:23pm Aug 15, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed. We often will get far too caught up in what "should" happen, as opposed to what IS happening. Those are far too often completely different.
Yep, It's all about picking tops and bottoms.

The way I look at it is if my bias is short , why the hell would I go long. So I stay on the sidelines until what I think should happen, does happen and if it doesn't I stay on the sidelines.
  • #14,378
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:21pm Aug 15, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting Venice
Agreed as well. But what *is* happening on the charts, Daily and H4 is Higher highs and higher lows. That just means, for my strategy, that the proper risk play is to the north atm
I 100% support your long bias (due to PA), I'm just not trading it.
  • #14,379
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:23pm Aug 15, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting stewrigh
Yep, It's all about picking tops and bottoms.

The way I look at it is if my bias is short , why the hell would I go long. So I stay on the sidelines until what I think should happen, does happen and if it doesn't I stay on the sidelines.
Same same
  • #14,380
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:12pm Aug 15, 2012 7:12pm
Klinsmann coaches the United States to its first victory at the Azteca stadium in Mexico City tonight. Final is 1-0 with a piecemeal side.

Mexico is 110-7 in that stadium. Or I should say was.
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