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  • #841
  • Jun 22, 2012 1:40pm Jun 22, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting Paulus
Sitting in my hotel room in oxford on my iPhone just scanning these results do look interesting and would like to investigate further myself which I will do when home

P
Oxford, England? Nice city, I'm jealous! Go for a curry, they're good in Oxford. Real ale too.
  • #842
  • Jun 22, 2012 7:18pm Jun 22, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting iwjw
Hi,
been a reader here since the beginning but didn't post so far
Haven't traded this method yet but now coded an indy to play with
And as always, the number of changeable parameters keeps growing to look what happens if you change this or that
So what we've got:
RangeStartTime/RangeEndTime:
- is your brokers time so you have to adjust to GMT yourself
InvertBias:
- Bias is the difference between StartTime openprice and EndTime openprice ->positive/bullish,negative/bearish bias. This option allows to invert bull/bear.
InvertSignal:
- show...


This is great! Thanks...
  • #843
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:22am Jun 23, 2012 1:22am
Quoting strada
Have been looking at some stats for this but only over last 4 weeeks until today, some interesting observations. Take what you will from it but it looks to me that the bias is something we might want to look at, it's a major criteria of the method but is it adding value to the method?? Yes I know only time will tell and all these stats could change dramatically but I don't think we should ignore them.

Results for last 4 weeks to today (all times are GMT):
using method as laid down ~ W 7; L 13.
using 6 till 7 to establish bias ~ W7: L 13.
using...

Good work Strada. At last! Someone is prepared to do a little WORK on this!!

I have done some testing of my own based on similar thinking - I.E. when London opens, they often reverse things completely OR they often do a fake move before continuing in the prevailing direction. Either way, I personally don't believe that using bias from 6:00am to 8:00am has any benefit on the M1 charts. And my findings seem to back this up.........

Pips are ignored, as measuring pips is irrelevant.

All tests are based on commencing trading at 8:00am UK time.

Test data starts on 11 April 2012, so we have 52 deals - enough, in my opinion, to be statistically significant............

R1, R2 etc refer to risk:reward. So, for example, R1 = 1:1, R3 = 1:3.

All calculations are based on 5% risk per deal.

The first table shows the original Paulus method.

The second one shows the data from just taking the FIRST signal in either direction after London open.

So, which one to trade? It would appear obvious initially, but could you REALLY live with a 30%+ drawdown on your account? Maybe you could when it's just $1000. But could you stomach a 30% drawdown on $500,000? Could you live with 7, 8 or 9 consecutive losses? Could you live with a strike rate well below 40%? These are all questions you must ask yourself - and ask yourself VERY seriously because this strategy gives some HUGE drawdowns!

But hey! Don't take my word for it, test this out for yourself! I won't be posting any more test information as I don't want to take this thread away from Paulus's original method.

Cheers,

GT3RS
Attached Image
  • #844
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:28am Jun 23, 2012 1:28am
And not forgetting guys................

This looks SIGNIFICANTLY different if you risk 2% per deal.

The profit is nowhere near as high [although still very nice], but without the horrific drawdown..................

Food for thought
  • #845
  • Jun 23, 2012 3:30am Jun 23, 2012 3:30am
statisticly, if system poss of having > 3 consecutive loss, IMO better to trade with fix lot. no MM.

walker

Quoting Gt3rs
Good work Strada. At last! Someone is prepared to do a little WORK on this!!

I have done some testing of my own based on similar thinking - I.E. when London opens, they often reverse things completely OR they often do a fake move before continuing in the prevailing direction. Either way, I personally don't believe that using bias from 6:00am to 8:00am has any benefit on the M1 charts. And my findings seem to back this up.........

Pips are ignored, as measuring pips is irrelevant.

All tests are based on commencing trading at 8:00am UK time.

Test...
  • #846
  • Jun 23, 2012 8:52am Jun 23, 2012 8:52am
First off, thank you Paulus and everyone for contributing to what looks like a promising strategy. I have been following this thread since the beginning and this week I decided to code an EA for it. I have added several parameters to give some flexibility in how it trades and I allow for trading all 5 session opens. Here are descriptions for the parameters:

// MT4 Server time of each session open (defaults are for EST)
Sydney
Tokyo
Euro
London
NewYork

// Which session to trade (use 1 to trade session, otherwise 0)
// I used int instead of bool so that the parameters can be changed when
// testing the EA using the strategy tester
TradeSydney
TradeTokyo
TradeEuro
TradeLondon
TradeNewYork

MaxSpread // maximum spread to open an order
UseMoneyManagement // automatically set lot size based on MM if true
RiskPercent // percent to risk on a trade
FixedLotSize // lot size to use if MM is off
Magic // magic number
Slippage // maximum slippage allowed for trades
MinTrendPips // minimum number of pips required to be considered a bias/trend before session open
MinStopLoss // Minimum stop loss allowed in pips
MinMacdRetrace // When MACD retraces, this is the minimum size of the bar at the signal
ReverseStochBars // if greater than 0, look back the number of bars for the stoch to be above 80 for buy signal or below 20 for sell signal
HoursForTrade // number of hours to look for trade after session open
HoursForTrend // number of hours back from session open to determine bias / trend
PipsBeyondPivot // number of pips to add/subract from latest high/low for stop loss
TradeReverseDir // whether to trade in reverse direction of bias of price goes below / above low/high of bias area
MoveStopLoss // whether to move the stop loss to break even + spread once the reward goes to 2x

It still needs some more testing but feel free to try it out. Any feedback will be appreciated. I'm still a noob so I may have missed a few things.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 !Robert SessionOpen.ex4   29 KB | 219 downloads
  • #847
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:14pm Jun 23, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting kuma
First off, thank you Paulus and everyone for contributing to what looks like a promising strategy. I have been following this thread since the beginning and this week I decided to code an EA for it. I have added several parameters to give some flexibility in how it trades and I allow for trading all 5 session opens. Here are descriptions for the parameters:

// MT4 Server time of each session open (defaults are for EST)
Sydney
Tokyo
Euro
London
NewYork

[color="gray"]// Which session to trade (use 1 to trade...
Hi Kume, nice work.
On BT i got this error
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: error.jpg Size: 26 KB
  • #848
  • Edited 2:15pm Jun 23, 2012 1:46pm | Edited 2:15pm
the hell side of coding EA s. should be coded for different brokers.

Kuma

well done

but you should check stop and limit levels with
following

if EA send values smaller then that EA should set broker min values

MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_STOPLEVEL)

walker

PS: if you send mql I can fix the issues.
better then to code all.

Quoting kuma
First off, thank you Paulus and everyone for contributing to what looks like a promising strategy. I have been following this thread since the beginning and this week I decided to code an EA for it. I have added several parameters to give some flexibility in how it trades and I allow for trading all 5 session opens. Here are descriptions for the parameters:

// MT4 Server time of each session open (defaults are for EST)
Sydney
Tokyo
Euro
London
NewYork

[color="gray"]// Which session to trade (use 1 to trade...
  • #849
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:51pm Jun 23, 2012 1:51pm
not sending long trade!

Quoting kuma
First off, thank you Paulus and everyone for contributing to what looks like a promising strategy. I have been following this thread since the beginning and this week I decided to code an EA for it. I have added several parameters to give some flexibility in how it trades and I allow for trading all 5 session opens. Here are descriptions for the parameters:

// MT4 Server time of each session open (defaults are for EST)
Sydney
Tokyo
Euro
London
NewYork

[color="gray"]// Which session to trade (use 1 to trade...
  • #850
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:55pm Jun 23, 2012 1:55pm
after stop out opens another trade in same session

Quoting kuma
First off, thank you Paulus and everyone for contributing to what looks like a promising strategy. I have been following this thread since the beginning and this week I decided to code an EA for it. I have added several parameters to give some flexibility in how it trades and I allow for trading all 5 session opens. Here are descriptions for the parameters:

// MT4 Server time of each session open (defaults are for EST)
Sydney
Tokyo
Euro
London
NewYork

[color="gray"]// Which session to trade (use 1 to trade...
  • #851
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:57pm Jun 23, 2012 1:57pm
change
MinStopLoss to hihger value.


Quoting Fame of me
Hi Kume, nice work.
On BT i got this error
  • #852
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:59pm Jun 23, 2012 1:59pm
all testers dont post any BT result before code fixed.
  • #853
  • Jun 24, 2012 9:55pm Jun 24, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting Gt3rs
Good work Strada. At last! Someone is prepared to do a little WORK on this!!

I have done some testing of my own based on similar thinking - I.E. when London opens, they often reverse things completely OR they often do a fake move before continuing in the prevailing direction. Either way, I personally don't believe that using bias from 6:00am to 8:00am has any benefit on the M1 charts. And my findings seem to back this up.........

Pips are ignored, as measuring pips is irrelevant.

All tests are based on commencing trading at 8:00am UK time.

Test...
First, thanks for sharing.

But why 8 gmt and not 7 (London open)?

And in your backtest, did you consider 2 pips spread?
  • #854
  • Jun 24, 2012 10:15pm Jun 24, 2012 10:15pm
Here is an update to the EA which should fix the earlier issues identified.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 !Robert SessionOpen.ex4   29 KB | 240 downloads
  • #855
  • Jun 24, 2012 10:38pm Jun 24, 2012 10:38pm
Quoting giraia_br
First, thanks for sharing.

But why 8 gmt and not 7 (London open)?

And in your backtest, did you consider 2 pips spread?


8am UK time, as per the rules., which is currently 8am British Summer Time (BST). I never mentioned GMT.

London open is always 8am local time. Which is currently 8am BST.

For everyone who is unable to work it out (god only knows how you expect to be successful in this business if you can't understand it), it is 8am UK TIME.

Stops were 1 pip from high/low, plus spread.
  • #856
  • Jun 24, 2012 11:45pm Jun 24, 2012 11:45pm
Quoting strada
Have been looking at some stats for this but only over last 4 weeeks until today, some interesting observations. Take what you will from it but it looks to me that the bias is something we might want to look at, it's a major criteria of the method but is it adding value to the method?? Yes I know only time will tell and all these stats could change dramatically but I don't think we should ignore them.

Results for last 4 weeks to today (all times are GMT):
using method as laid down ~ W 7; L 13.
using 6 till 7 to establish bias ~ W7: L 13.
using...
i can see you have banked some pips this morning if you took the trade with bias 6GMT nice one
  • #857
  • Jun 24, 2012 11:59pm Jun 24, 2012 11:59pm
strada, Paulus' signals are signals in relation to bias

what constitutes a signal for you, without bias?

Quoting zawad4u
i can see you have banked some pips this morning if you took the trade with bias 6GMT nice one
  • #858
  • Jun 25, 2012 12:04am Jun 25, 2012 12:04am
morning guys!

looking for sell...

Bye, Alex
  • #859
  • Jun 25, 2012 12:22am Jun 25, 2012 12:22am
without looking at bias, my indi is showing a
long 0705 GMT and short 0715 GMT
long would already be dead and short in profit
  • #860
  • Jun 25, 2012 12:36am Jun 25, 2012 12:36am
Hi iwjw,

i'm still trying to learn paulus method.

how did you manage to catch the short at 7:15?
the mcad was so tiny can't even see on my chart, and if i'm not mistaken, the stoch is below the 50 level?
i thought we should short when the stoch is below 80 but above 50?
any comment is appreciated. thanks.
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