Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1811 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #36,201
  • Jun 15, 2012 5:00am Jun 15, 2012 5:00am
On longer TF it looks bearish and could drop to make a new leg before another try up. Based on this I would be more confident to take short, but let PA guides us.

Add: H1 just close below 1.2626, now I'll wait for a short signal on M15. Looking for a retest of 1.2626. Inverted hammer would be a good sign for short, if there is any.
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  • #36,202
  • Jun 15, 2012 6:27am Jun 15, 2012 6:27am
We need to be very careful today. The markets view the greek vote as massive. I've just had an email from my broker advising clients to analyse any contingent ordrs going into the weekend. They say that having had discussions with their market makers and tier 1 banks "we believe Sunday night opening might see unprecedented volatility, naturally enhancing risk of market gapping, margin call and position stop out scenarios."

The market looks strong to me right now, but I'd expect a lot of volatility later as positions are closed ahead of the vote.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,203
  • Jun 15, 2012 6:28am Jun 15, 2012 6:28am
Any trading today should be smash and grab style!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,204
  • Jun 15, 2012 6:44am Jun 15, 2012 6:44am
Quoting Trader131
Any trading today should be smash and grab style!
Yup, in the front page on FF you could see that Oanda is not taking any order. But I think, the storm would be here few hour after NY open. But thanks.

On short right now.
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  • #36,205
  • Jun 15, 2012 6:56am Jun 15, 2012 6:56am
Close the one below, not risking anything here. NY is coming and I am ready.
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  • #36,206
  • Jun 15, 2012 7:15am Jun 15, 2012 7:15am
Well done on that short, passerby. I think I'm going to sit out today- it could get nasty.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,207
  • Jun 15, 2012 7:40am Jun 15, 2012 7:40am
Quoting Trader131
Well done on that short, passerby. I think I'm going to sit out today- it could get nasty.
Thanks, my TP almost hit few min ago. Now she moves against me, waiting game then. I think this is my last entry today.
  • #36,208
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:22am Jun 15, 2012 8:22am
Out, @601. I am done this week, not a very stellar performance this week. Happy weekend all.
  • #36,209
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:26am Jun 15, 2012 8:26am
Couldn't resist a euro long with an 8 pip stop! It was a potential double bottom on the 15, above lots of support
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,210
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:27am Jun 15, 2012 8:27am
took half off at +12. SL to BE
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,211
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:29am Jun 15, 2012 8:29am
Just got smoked big time by the GU. Tried to sell the retracement of that last down move near the 15M MAs and got taken to the cleaners. Same trade on the AU/EU would have yielded pips.

Looking now, the MAs were flat, pretty much on all TFs so not really a high probability trade.
  • #36,212
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:41am Jun 15, 2012 8:41am
Quoting Trader131
Ok, I know I had a good day, when everything seemd to click, and they don't always go so well, but I've just been adding up my pips, and I made just over 100 full pips today, about 7% of my account (risking 1% per trade) and have still 1 1/4 positions left open on cable that if I cashed in now would add up to another 54 full pips. What a day- that's just insane! All credit goes to EO and the thread.
131,

Question about your 1%. Do you adjust your lot size depending on the stop loss that you intend to use for each trade. For example, with a 20 pip SL you may be trading 2 lots but with a 10 pip SL you bump it up to 4?

-Thanks
  • #36,213
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:42am Jun 15, 2012 8:42am
Funnily enough, Dharma, I saw the charts at that point, and was tempted to go long on GU at about the 25 level (the white tick) anticipating that we would close as a DBLHC/tweezers off support. By the time price reached the 35/50ma's that candle have been clear that it was going to close as a very bullish candle, so for that reason I wouldn't have gone short there. But admittedly, PA is tricky today.
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,214
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:47am Jun 15, 2012 8:47am
Quoting DharmaTrader
131,

Question about your 1%. Do you adjust your lot size depending on the stop loss that you intend to use for each trade. For example, with a 20 pip SL you may be trading 2 lots but with a 10 pip SL you bump it up to 4?

-Thanks
Yes, exactly, as my SL varies a lot, although sometimes I don't bother changing lot size and keep it at around 1% on 20 pips , but in theory that's right (I also sometimes vary it depending on how I view the setup, so may risk 0.5% sometimes if I'm taking an aggressive early entry, perhaps with a view to add another 0.5% later
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,215
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:53am Jun 15, 2012 8:53am
Taking another 1/4 off here +18. Not gunning for big pips today
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,216
  • Jun 15, 2012 8:55am Jun 15, 2012 8:55am
Quoting Trader131
Funnily enough, Dharma, I saw the charts at that point, and was tempted to go long on GU at about the 25 level (the white tick) anticipating that we would close as a DBLHC/tweezers off support. By the time price reached the 35/50ma's that candle have been clear that it was going to close as a very bullish candle, so for that reason I wouldn't have gone short there. But admittedly, PA is tricky today.
Had I waited for the candle to close I most certainly wouldn't have taken it short. As EO said, it's not a signal until it closes. And with that DBLHC and the flat MAs I'd say that it wasn't a short signal either way.

What support were you looking at? The only thing I was seeing is the RN at 1.5500 so it seemed like it would continue south until it found support.
  • #36,217
  • Jun 15, 2012 9:18am Jun 15, 2012 9:18am
Ok, there is support on the 1 hr chart, but it's not very obvious, but yes, there is also round no. support. What I really meant, and it's not part on this methodology and I don't really want to go into it too much on this thread was more supply and demand clusters. I'll try and explain it as best I can. This isn't a text book example, but see the area in the grey rectangle? At the left of the rectangle price came down to it and then we had a DBLHC folowed by a long green candle out of it. That area is a demand zone, an area of imbalance (hence the long green candle out of it- many more buyers than sellers) and when price comes back later to revisit it, theres a strong chance that there will still be more buyers than sellers there, hence the tweezers and bounce. It's something worth looking out for, when you see a long candle/ start of a big move
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,218
  • Jun 15, 2012 10:00am Jun 15, 2012 10:00am
Ok, closing out the rest of my euro long here, +32pips, and that's it for me today. Enjoy the weekend!
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,219
  • Jun 15, 2012 11:27am Jun 15, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Trader131
Ok, there is support on the 1 hr chart, but it's not very obvious, but yes, there is also round no. support. What I really meant, and it's not part on this methodology and I don't really want to go into it too much on this thread was more supply and demand clusters. I'll try and explain it as best I can. This isn't a text book example, but see the area in the grey rectangle? At the left of the rectangle price came down to it and then we had a DBLHC folowed by a long green candle out of it. That area is a demand zone, an area of imbalance (hence...
Makes sense. Thanks for the info.

Have a great weekend.
  • #36,220
  • Jun 17, 2012 11:52pm Jun 17, 2012 11:52pm
131,

I was just getting my system squared tonight for tomorrow's trading and see that you vouched for me. Thanks bro; I'll do my best to live up to the honor as I continue to evolve my trading skills and experience.

I am out here on almost a daily basis and I see you raking in positive pips most of the time and nailing a lot of great entries. I am looking forward to the day when I'm trading on your level.

Many thanks also to EO and other thread contributors for putting a real and practical trading method out here for all to make use of and learn from.

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