LJ Forex Group

5M pin bouncing off demand.... Should I close the remainder (1/3) now?

Go baby go!! Set my final TP at 1.2270

Added one more at 1.2357 and moved SL to 1.5270.

Stopped out at 1.2370 (25+25+55-13=92 pips in total). Maybe my SL was too tight. Not good at breakout trade...

EDIT: Oops, there was 1H bullish pinbar, which looks like 1H FB. Need to check hourly charts regularly.......

My last trade (scalp) for today. Bought EU at 2.2363 and closed it at 1.2378 for +15 pips.

Just found this gem of a thread.

I agree that there is a lot of crap around regarding mechanical systems. However much of it is due to really bad money management strategies that go with it. Great mechanical systems do exist, often with very low win rates but very high r multiples. They are not popular because most traders hate losing and to have a win rate of say 40% puts them right off. Yet look at the turtle traders - made millions.

That comes down to personality. For example the traditional breakout algo has that profile - low win rate (circa 30-40%) but high R. The system will have a positive expectancy over the long term but of course with such a low win rate short term equity curve fluctuations are significant.

Personality drives what we feel comfortable with which drives confidence. Most people can't accept long losing periods (me included) because it goes against our mindset and what we've experiencd in the past (being right more often that wrong is a good thing - school exams for example etc).

However confidence also comes with underlying knowledge and intensive research and due diligence. If you have developed a system that you have completely back-tested and forward tested and of course understand why it works then you naturally have confidence in the long term expectancy of that system. However, what do most retail traders do - they blindly follow what someone else tells them, don't undertake the level of research themselves and don't understand why the system works - thus they quickly lose confidence and jump to the next system.

Why do mechanical systems appeal to people...because we are so used to a rule based environment for most of our early lives, through the education system, society and our work environment. It is very natural to be more comfortable with a 'if x happens do y' approach.

So although mechanical systems have a 'place' many in retail don't have the right mindset and discipline to trade them (in terms of undertaking the required research).

But this is where vendors take advantage, the average vendor knows that what is of most appeal to the mass market is a mechanical system - so the market is littered with either crap systems (be it automated or manual) or systems that shouldn't be traded mechanically but because a vendor knows that's the quickest way to make money they package it into a mechanical strategy.

(I will come back to this and price action trading another time...)

Trade management is the hardest thing in trading in terms of formulating an objective plan, the problem IMO is:

a) books and forums teach the wrong approach - there is a complete over obsession with entries and being ultra picky and achieving a high win rate in the retail space - it's my biggest frustration and my biggest hurdle when it comes to mentoring people who have learnt to trade off a public forum, they wannabe ultra picky, take 2 A+ trades per week 2 trades at 0.7R with 3% per trade etc etc....they've been brain washed into believing this rubbish is important.

b) People haven't done their research, they don't know what a good trade management strategy looks like, they don't know how to differ their plan based on objective analysis (e.g. market volatility, trending versus ranging, having an objective directional bias).

c) Mindset - emotions, psychology introduces bad habits - as a trader you mostly experience emotions associated with fear and greed that you have never experienced in every day life - it's a totally new experience (and is relevant to any sort of gambling) and therefore it's one of the hardest things to understand and thus control for a wannabe trader.

This is a summary of how I evaluated my trade management performance when I was in my learning stage (self-analysis and record keeping is an essential part of learning to trade IMO).

1. I would (and still do) write everything about a trade setup - entry, SL, risk and importantly my exit plan BEFORE I take the trade. If I couldn't do that before the trade occurred I never took the trade.

2. I would also make sure I detailed the reasons for my exit plan and what (objective) reasons I could potentially use to differ from this plan...i.e. what must happen to me to want to change my view (and of course they have to be objective, not for example if my P/L hits x).

3. I would record these results then evaluate them a few days later - it's too easy to review a trade just after it's finished and convince yourself that everything you did was as you should have done it. I'd review it a few days later and it would become apparent fairly quickly a) if my original plan was rubbish and b) if I deviated from this plan at all and if the reason was objective or based on emotions.

Why did this work...because it encourages trading against a pre-thought out plan - a plan that has been devised in a calm emotion free environment and is something I can refer to when in a trade. What's the alternative, work out your entry, SL and risk...take the trade and then have to make quick decisions in the heat of the moment...which way is more prone to the introduction of an irrational decision based on emotions lol.

That's enough for now

Welcome to the thread

NU FB setup earlier this morning (too early for me). As per previous posts on this subject price did exactly as expected (are people starting to 'get it' now lol). Blue line is also a daily close.

Just for fun

Just missed this sell setup on GU 1M.

Take 50 shorts, then you get 50 X 20 = 1,000 pips. Just 20 minutes.

Shorted USD/CAD just before NFP. SL @ BE now.

Stopped out at BE. Maybe moved SL to BE too early because of NFP.

sold loonie , 1m-FB at daily supply, also RSI divergence, 1st target is bottom of bullflag, waiting for a break south for a visit to base of the flagpole

Whoa, this one is dropping like a hot potato, wanted to close whole position @ the base of the flagpole but price just cut right through this level, so decided to keep all my positions open. Currently banked 80 pips and let a small portion open with SL @ floorpivot R1 which is also a 15m-PPZ, price is very oversold so price will bounce to resolve OS-situation

Nice trade!!

Stopped out on remaining position for +65 pips, already banked +80 pips. Daily supply was also a bullflag which broke south after a FB, the bottom of the bullflag was a double bar low (DBL) a nice and clear decision point to break. Funny that on the LTF and HTF we got exactly the same setup ie. Bullflag breaking south after a FB north.

Bought AN @ 1.2845, SL @ 1.2830, and TP @ 1.2880.

AN is not looking good right now...

Some nice trading guys...I'm a bit confused by what you are calling a bull flag at supply cos that's not what your chart is showing?