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  • #648,761
  • May 29, 2012 12:33am May 29, 2012 12:33am
Quoting fxanonymous
i've gotta say I don't really understand everybody's urge to short so soon...

the M1 , M5 , M15, M30 and 1H charts show the price above the 25-EMA and on the 1H it is even above the 50-EMA...

so soon to short... i'm waiting for more signals. too weak for the moment.
Agreed... in fact, i just got longer around 2554.

I think we are playing a game of paper profit chicken... large hedge funds seem to be sitting around the table, not wanting to go long, or even close out shorts...but worried if the guy sitting NEXT to him is spooked.... it'll cut back on the profits sitting in his account.

And eventually, somebody blinks. Seems like london was the blink.


And now... everyone gets more nervous...and does the obvious thing.

Not sure if we'll keep going... but, tahts they situation as I see it now.

X
  • #648,762
  • May 29, 2012 12:34am May 29, 2012 12:34am
the gap is closed, now trade in the gap's direction - up
  • #648,763
  • May 29, 2012 12:37am May 29, 2012 12:37am
And now stops above BE on the entry around 1.2555....

Quid... at this point, I take it back what I said before... i'll send you the thank you card.

X
  • #648,764
  • May 29, 2012 12:38am May 29, 2012 12:38am
1.2565. sell order.
  • #648,765
  • May 29, 2012 12:39am May 29, 2012 12:39am
Quoting Nachiket
1.2565. sell order.

it will now target 1.2575 in my opinion.
  • #648,766
  • May 29, 2012 12:39am May 29, 2012 12:39am
Quoting Nachiket
it will now target 1.2575 in my opinion.
after that 1.2580 and then boom come down.
  • #648,767
  • May 29, 2012 12:39am May 29, 2012 12:39am
Quoting forextraderx
Agreed... in fact, i just got longer around 2554.

I think we are playing a game of paper profit chicken... large hedge funds seem to be sitting around the table, not wanting to go long, or even close out shorts...but worried if the guy sitting NEXT to him is spooked.... it'll cut back on the profits sitting in his account.

And eventually, somebody blinks. Seems like london was the blink.


And now... everyone gets more nervous...and does the obvious thing.

Not sure if we'll keep going... but, tahts they situation as I see it now.

X...
Yes, but somewhere there's someone that's overtechnical and will judge fundamentally that the EU's going down, and BANG! he pushes the button.

The bull run is somewhat staved by the pivot right now. I'm feeling comfy with my SL there. Will see further situations.

Fundamentally and technically, it has to go down. There's a trendline to respect, Spain bp is going to head to 7, Spain's Bankia is overrated, and in liquidity surge, there's no rescue for them, Greece has only 3bn to the end of August, etc. Judge for yourselves, anyway, for I might be wrong.

LE : Capital flight has cut foreign holdings of Spanish debt from 50pc to 37pc since January. Spain's banks -- including Bankia -- have been propping up the state with €316bn borrowed from the European Central Bank. Now the state is propping up banks. The incestuous nexus is surreal.
David Owen from Jefferies said Spain is near the point of no return. "It is not sustainable. They hope things will calm down after the Greek elections. We think there will have to be external intervention," he said.

+ SMA200 rejected the candle on M30 on 1.2567
Please, just slap me around if I'm being silly ...
  • #648,768
  • May 29, 2012 12:46am May 29, 2012 12:46am
Quoting Motion
Short 2559. SL 2562. TP1 2495.

Good morning mates.
Mojo busted. -3
Don't just beat the markets, leave bruises.
  • #648,769
  • May 29, 2012 12:47am May 29, 2012 12:47am
My POV is in the next charts, take them as you will.
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Please, just slap me around if I'm being silly ...
  • #648,770
  • May 29, 2012 12:48am May 29, 2012 12:48am
Quoting Motion
Mojo busted. -3
what was ur margin on this trade?
  • #648,771
  • May 29, 2012 12:48am May 29, 2012 12:48am
Quoting daemon_delux
Yes, but somewhere there's someone that's overtechnical and will judge fundamentally that the EU's going down, and BANG! he pushes the button.

The bull run is somewhat staved by the pivot right now. I'm feeling comfy with my SL there. Will see further situations.

Fundamentally and technically, it has to go down. There's a trendline to respect, Spain bp is going to head to 7, Spain's Bankia is overrated, and in liquidity surge, there's no rescue for them, Greece has only 3bn to the end of August, etc. Judge for yourselves, anyway, for I might be...

Fundamentally yes. Technically, one could argue pro or con in my opinion. my own tech analysis says up, but I tend to define things a bit differently than most.

But as far as sentiment goes... bloomberg had 3 front page headline articles in which the euro was discussed...and all 3 had quotes from 3 seperate multi billion dollar hedge funds, including the 5th largest in china.

And every single hedge fund manager said he was reducing his position, or actually buying, or expecting a bounce this week.

If 3 multibillion dollar hedgefunds are quoted on front page stories in a major financial news source...and all 3 are either buying the euro or not willing to sell here...and all 3 expect a bounce...

Lets just say I don't think i'm the only one that is thinking this way about market sentiment and the effect it may play for the next 24-72 hours.

X
  • #648,772
  • May 29, 2012 12:49am May 29, 2012 12:49am
German CPI might release on the hour close , watch out
Mohan
  • #648,773
  • May 29, 2012 12:50am May 29, 2012 12:50am
Quoting daemon_delux
Yes, but somewhere there's someone that's overtechnical and will judge fundamentally that the EU's going down, and BANG! he pushes the button.

The bull run is somewhat staved by the pivot right now. I'm feeling comfy with my SL there. Will see further situations. ..................

yes of course I agree. but I was just wondering why everybody was shorting so soon. the price has gone up 10 pips and more since then.

"too soon to short" was my point.

Even though it is obviously a small bull run for the moment, the fundamentals do not allow me to long. I would not feel comfortable unless it is a short and i am therefore waiting for the appropriate timing.

as kuroro said, it is indeed no man's land right now.
Daily Target: 20 pips
  • #648,774
  • May 29, 2012 12:51am May 29, 2012 12:51am
Quoting forextraderx
Fundamentally yes. Technically, one could argue pro or con in my opinion. my own tech analysis says up, but I tend to define things a bit differently than most.

But as far as sentiment goes... bloomberg had 3 front page headline articles in which the euro was discussed...and all 3 had quotes from 3 seperate multi billion dollar hedge funds, including the 5th largest in china.

And every single hedge fund manager said he was reducing his position, or actually buying, or expecting a bounce this week.

If 3 multibillion dollar hedgefunds are quoted...
and what did these three multi billion dollar hedge funds do yesterday. they bought when the euro went down to 1.2520. u trust them and the shit they say. donno mke that mistake. they want you to be on the wrong side of the trade.
  • #648,775
  • May 29, 2012 12:53am May 29, 2012 12:53am
Quoting mohan76
German CPI might release on the hour close , watch out
I'll watch carefully....

If it's bad...and the euro doesn't break the asian session lows by london tomorrow... i'm just gonna get even longer. It may be the losing trade of the week...

but when news comes out and the market ignores it... particularly when it's this oversold.... man, go the way the market is going. (not that it's new advice tho)

Besides, in my eyes, the market is right now starting to rally and the world may just come undone? As for this session tonight, i'm just gonna listen to the market.

X
  • #648,776
  • May 29, 2012 12:54am May 29, 2012 12:54am
Quoting Nachiket
and what did these three multi billion dollar hedge funds do yesterday. they bought when the euro went down to 1.2520. u trust them and the shit they say. donno mke that mistake. they want you to be on the wrong side of the trade.
More like wrong side of the market. Do you really think that someone who wants your money is going to come to you and tell you their intentions?
Please, just slap me around if I'm being silly ...
  • #648,777
  • May 29, 2012 12:54am May 29, 2012 12:54am
Quoting Nachiket
after that 1.2580 and then boom come down.
Why not short at 80 if you know it's going there?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #648,778
  • May 29, 2012 12:54am May 29, 2012 12:54am
Quoting forextraderx
I'll watch carefully....

If it's bad...and the euro doesn't break the asian session lows by london tomorrow... i'm just gonna get even longer. It may be the losing trade of the week...

but when news comes out and the market ignores it... particularly when it's this oversold.... man, go the way the market is going. (not that it's new advice tho)

Besides, in my eyes, the market is right now starting to rally and the world may just come undone? As for this session tonight, i'm just gonna listen to the market.

X
there is nothing like oversold or overbought. Get that out of your mind first. last year the aussie was rallyin 100 pips everyday and people were just selling on every rise and it went to 1.11
  • #648,779
  • May 29, 2012 12:54am May 29, 2012 12:54am
Quoting johncen
yes......
whats happening to mother earth

she is so angry
Happy Trading!!!
  • #648,780
  • May 29, 2012 12:55am May 29, 2012 12:55am
Quoting kuroro001
Why not short at 80 if you know it's going there?
i already shorted at 1.2565.
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