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  • #1,601
  • May 2, 2012 2:10pm May 2, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting pipmutt
I see, that's much better, flexibility. I guess it was your comment "Just my opinion of course. However, one that I won't deviate from." which threw me. Turns out that what you posted was apparently not what you meant at all! Never mind I'm sure you knew what you meant, that's all that matters......

I'd love to stay and continue this riveting chat but I'm off out for dinner......
You fail to understand all the little nuances. Just as in trading, things can change (to put it simply enough for you to understand).

As previously stated, (some) opinions can change over time. My opinion of you will not change. Fairly simple. Sorry if you don't get it.

Quoting pipmutt
....but I'm off
Indeed !

Until next time.....
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #1,602
  • May 3, 2012 12:05am May 3, 2012 12:05am
Quoting Slim Buffett

Just my opinion of course.
However, one that I won't deviate from.
Quoting Slim Buffett

I would first form an opinion. I would wait for further circumstance to validate my opinion. If no circumstance occurred to invalidate my opinion I would believe my assumption to be correct for whatever period of time.
Quoting Slim Buffett

My opinion of you will not change.
Won't change, might change, won't change.

Consistency, excellent!

“I used to think I was indecisive, but now I'm not so sure”
  • #1,603
  • May 3, 2012 1:25am May 3, 2012 1:25am
Quoting pipmutt
Won't change, might change, won't change.

Consistency, excellent!

“I used to think I was indecisive, but now I'm not so sure”
Haha, funny quote.
  • #1,604
  • May 3, 2012 1:26am May 3, 2012 1:26am
Quoting pipmutt
Won't change, might change, won't change.

Consistency, excellent!

“I used to think I was indecisive, but now I'm not so sure”
There's no indecision at all as far as I'm concerned. The confusion lies in your mind and seems to be some sort of mental disorder that you're afflicted with.

Of course opinions change. It happens on a daily basis. Have you ever bought a currency pair one day and sold it the next. Do you change the color of the clothes you wear. So, I'm sorry for your disorder.

In fact, my opinion of you may even be changing. Now I'm not sure whether to simply dislike you or to pity you.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #1,605
  • May 3, 2012 1:57am May 3, 2012 1:57am
Quoting Slim Buffett

Just my opinion of course.
However, one that I won't deviate from.
Quoting Slim Buffett

I would first form an opinion. I would wait for further circumstance to validate my opinion. If no circumstance occurred to invalidate my opinion I would believe my assumption to be correct for whatever period of time.
Quoting Slim Buffett

My opinion of you will not change.
...and the latest....

Quoting Slim Buffett

Of course opinions change.

Won't change, might change, won't change, do change.

Yeah ok, lol


When you find yourself in a hole the first thing to do is stop digging!

http://www.jonrb.com/emoticons/digger.gif
  • #1,606
  • May 3, 2012 2:03am May 3, 2012 2:03am
Quoting pipmutt
...

http://www.jonrb.com/emoticons/digger.gif

Yes, PITY is obviously the correct opinion.
(sorry for your loss)
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #1,607
  • May 3, 2012 11:16am May 3, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Turveyd
It's the SL's being hit, which rack up the spread costs it may seem small, but it's very hard to over come, the smaller a SL you use then the worse the impact is.

Previous $1 Mini account, 3000 trades over 7 years or something, -$1600 I think or similar over that time, the spread cost me $9000 without that cost I'd of been +$7400 and compounding so likely much much more.

But the bigger the SL, the less control your have over your position and it rapidly becomes a near 50/50 wait and see game.

This is part of what makes the learning curve so steep - but locating the SL as a function of increasing net/net profitability, is only part of the game. It is only one dimension, of a multi-dimensioned process that has to be optimized, without being over-optimized. That's hard work.

You can have a larger SL and maintain profitability as well, but that all depends on where you locate your Entry and your Limit levels. Everything is predicated on several key principles that have to be well understood. Entry, Limit and Stop - these items components of just one of those key principles.

Consistent profitable trading, requires many different disciplines. I'll match the learning curve and all of the necessary disciplines and skill sets required to become consistently profitable in this business, against any Masters and/or Ph.D. program in existence.

By the time you genuinely become self-sufficient and building real wealth in this business as an independent trader, you would have the equivalent of a Ph.D. in the industry - if such a thing existed.

Again, it is easy to make money in a one way market - this is where a lot of people get fooled. The entered the business during a six (6) month bull run and they were lulled into a false sense of security about their knowledge and their learned skill. When that same market snaps back to horizontal, before going vertical in the opposite direction, they quickly find out that it ain't so easy after all.

Bull, Bear, Horizontal and Transition. You have to be able to consistently develop your capital in all four (4) market types, in order to hang your hat on self-sufficiency in this business.

How many at home Day Traders have actually spent the years of research, study, analysis, testing, evaluation and proofing necessary in order to do that? Precious few - a very small cadre of at home Day Traders can do that.
The Event Horizon
  • #1,608
  • May 3, 2012 11:31am May 3, 2012 11:31am
Quoting iDouble
This is part of what makes the learning curve so steep - but locating the SL as a function of increasing net/net profitability, is only part of the game. It is only one dimension, of a multi-dimensioned process that has to be optimized, without being over-optimized. That's hard work.

You can have a larger SL and maintain profitability as well, but that all depends on where you locate your Entry and your Limit levels. Everything is predicated on several key principles that have to be well understood. Entry, Limit and Stop - these items components...

there is three major things to look at for profitability

1)diversification
2)asset selection
3) market timing

one must find the best in terms of skill and risk.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #1,609
  • May 3, 2012 11:34am May 3, 2012 11:34am
Quoting iDouble

How many at home Day Traders have actually spent the years of research, study, analysis, testing, evaluation and proofing necessary in order to do that? Precious few - a very small cadre of at home Day Traders can do that.
It's hard to fit it in, I get 10 mins occasionally of peace to do such, normally end up working on it till 3am then shattered the next day.

Live screen time during busy markets is what I need, but alas no chance until atleast Thursday next week ( Monday if markets are open as it's a holiday here )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,610
  • May 3, 2012 12:10pm May 3, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting pipmutt
And I'd say the complete opposite! The longer the time frame the more potential for influences on market sentiment. Scalping (the retail forex trader's definition), although fairly intense, can produce some exceptional performance stats.
That's certainly one of the illusions of trading FX, I would agree. I think that if you put the scalping method to an empirical test across a broad enough range of history and all four (4) market conditions, that you might find a different definition of "exceptional performance."

Not saying you cannot scalp across a wide variety of market conditions, but being able to do that, requires a lot (tremendous) amount of study, across all market conditions, so that the mode stop levels can be understood with respect to the frequency at which limit levels are struck. In other words, in a pure scalping scenario, by definition, you limit the net profitability per trade by design. That means, your R3 can't be bigger than 1:1. And, that by definition means that your mode accuracy has to be well above average in order to reach a level of survivability, let alone actual capital growth over time.

These things won't be fully understood by the trader, unless and until they do the long and extensive work in studying the various models for their particular trading style. Scalping can and does work, but it works for those that have nailed down the Entry level, and have set an appropriate R3.

The other issue is position size. Scalping requires precision on Entry and Exit. As the size increases per trade, Entry/Exit precision drops as a direct consequence of retails traders in Forex having to deal with bucket shops with liquidity pools driven mostly by marketing hype and not real bank participation. Ask the average retail broker what the maximum size per trade will be on their platform, and most of them will tell you $5m notional, or less.

If you ever get close to trading Yards, you won't be doing any more scalping of whole positions and thus your Edge is gone, because you cannot trade the same relative size the way you used to on a retail platform. Of course, you play all kinds of games by breaking-up your equity across multiple accounts, multiple platforms, etc. But, at some point, you'll have to develop another Edge that does not include scalping, given the liquidity issue. Not because there is a liquidity problem in Interbank, but because there are no pure retail FX brokers that provide the pure retail trader with access to anything but their private (proprietary) liquidity pool.

So, again - how "successful" one gets, really does depend on several factors with position size (as it grows) becoming a real pain in the neck for maintaining that definition. These are some of the factors that retail traders don't think about, until they have to deal with them. And, that time does not come until retail trading platforms no longer meet their needs.

Are there institutional scalpers? Yes - but their scalping game (algorithms), systems, data feeds, schemes, are completely different from what the retail trader even as access to. At that level, you are no longer talking about "scalping" anymore, and the conversation shifts to HFT. HFTs do not use the same systems that retail traders have access to. Besides, until Interbank develops a central clearing facility (highly doubtful), you can't genuinely HFT the currency markets.
The Event Horizon
  • #1,611
  • May 3, 2012 12:29pm May 3, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting Turveyd
It's hard to fit it in, I get 10 mins occasionally of peace to do such, normally end up working on it till 3am then shattered the next day.

Live screen time during busy markets is what I need, but alas no chance until atleast Thursday next week ( Monday if markets are open as it's a holiday here )
I'm up between 5am and 6am each day, and typically don't see my bed until after 12am, when I'm doing research. Right now, I'm doing system development using a Visual EA builder tool, so I don't put in those same hours each day.

I'm only using the Visual EA builder tool to do some rapid prototyping of ideas. That's the only reason I have a retail MT4 account at this point. So, I'm full-time in the business - but that's the point - I run my trading as a business and not a hobby.

If you get the MT4 back-tester running properly, so that you can test across multiple time-frames and force it to use tick data, then you won't need as much live screen time.

My set-up might not work for you, but I use three different MT4 installations:

1 - EA backtest environment
1 - EA live forward test environment
1 - EA live trade environment

I use Birt's Patch for the backtesting, which means you can't use an MT4 build higher than 409. So, if you can convert your trade logic into an EA, you'll still need to do live forward testing, but you won't need to do as much.

The key is to make sure you always backtest using tick data, because your test results will be dependent upon timing of the High/Low of each M1 bar. Also, if your EA requires multiple time frames, then the backtester will need to have access to that data as well during the test.
The Event Horizon
  • #1,612
  • May 3, 2012 12:36pm May 3, 2012 12:36pm
Quoting iDouble
I'm up between 5am and 6am each day, and typically don't see my bed until after 12am, when I'm doing research. Right now, I'm doing system development using a Visual EA builder tool, so I don't put in those same hours each day.

I'm only using the Visual EA builder tool to do some rapid prototyping of ideas. That's the only reason I have a retail MT4 account at this point. So, I'm full-time in the business - but that's the point - I run my trading as a business and not a hobby.

If you get the MT4 back-tester running properly, so that you can...

how many months / years have you been working with EA's ?? how's it going profitable wise ?

I'm a programmer I tried it years ago with MT3 wasted 6months and swear not to waste any more time on it.


So doing it old school, using the mk1 eye ball and a excel spread sheet for recording the results.

I've got Trend Up or Down nailed, trend changes cost me but at an acceptable level. I've got a range system but it's all trend based these days, shame range system was given excellent results until recently.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,613
  • May 3, 2012 12:41pm May 3, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting iDouble
Consistently profitable over what consistently, continuous time interval?

That's the thing that people who claim its really easy never seem to define. Profitability over what time interval? That's the question.

I outlined why this is important to understand in my first post. An Inter-Day Trader, has no choice but to be profitable by EOD! The Intra-Day Trader, can declare profitability after X number of days. The Swing Trader, can declare profitability anywhere from between 2 days, out to as much as 4 weeks. The Position Trader, can declare profitability...
It isn't about the individual trader being profitable it is about the robustness of the method/system.

Back in 2006 I was shown a method that was profitable about 75% of the time on the m15 timeframe, it turns out the same method worked on every timeframe (fractals).

Anyway, with 20 years of data it wasn't hard to check it worked historically so it was fair to assume (with forward testing) it would work in the future.

Here we are in 2012 and it still works.

Is that enough data?

Just because it works didn't mean I would be automatically profitable, but proving it worked past and present was enough to give me the resolve to concentrate on it and beat it.
  • #1,614
  • May 3, 2012 3:23pm May 3, 2012 3:23pm
jeez i can't read all that after a days trading!
tradewith60
  • #1,615
  • May 3, 2012 3:32pm May 3, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting 60minuteman
jeez i can't read all that after a days trading!

Lets see your results, ie screen grab of your account for today!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,616
  • May 3, 2012 4:42pm May 3, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting Turveyd
Lets see your results, ie screen grab of your account for today!!
I sucked today... been a while since I had a losing day mind... thats trading though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2012-05-04 at 00.41.05.png Size: 12 KB
tradewith60
  • #1,617
  • May 3, 2012 4:44pm May 3, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting iDouble

That's certainly one of the illusions of trading FX, I would agree. I think that if you put the scalping method to an empirical test across a broad enough range of history and all four (4) market conditions, that you might find a different definition of "exceptional performance."
Well I can only speak from personal practical experience rather than theory, by my standards the returns were excellent and to be honest by comparison to the 'experts' I wasn't even that good at it! I chose market conditions which suited my analysis style, it wasn't necessary to trade in all market conditions although I'm sure it's perfectly possible. Although I thoroughly enjoyed it, after ~2 years things got a little too intense for me and I toned it down, apart from time constraints it's more comfortable for me to trade longer time frames now rather than 8 hour stints in front of screens making upwards of 60 round turn trades a day. As regards liquidity, well the 5m cap you quoted was more than enough for me!!

I think you're way overcomplicating the whole process (trading) though. I conceded that it's difficult to learn and become proficient but it really doesn't require any specialist knowledge, copious testing and re-testing, in-depth understanding or lengthy statistical analysis, or some convoluted strategy. From what I've seen simple can be equally as profitable as complex so what's the benefit of going overboard?

I think some people are convinced that just because the majority fail they somehow need to complicate trading in order to be profitable. From my experience it's really not the case, in fact I'd go so far as to say the opposite is true.
  • #1,618
  • May 3, 2012 4:46pm May 3, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting 60minuteman
I sucked today... been a while since I had a losing day mind... thats trading though
Happens to us all, I'm having a DOWN week but you learn from the down days so it's all good.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,619
  • May 3, 2012 4:46pm May 3, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting pipmutt
Well I can only speak from personal practical experience rather than theory, by my standards the returns were excellent and to be honest by comparison to the 'experts' I wasn't even that good at it! I chose market conditions which suited my analysis style, it wasn't necessary to trade in all market conditions although I'm sure it's perfectly possible. Although I thoroughly enjoyed it, after ~2 years things got a little too intense for me and I toned it down, apart from time constraints it's more comfortable for me to trade longer time frames...
amen brother!... beautifully put and bang on the money
tradewith60
  • #1,620
  • May 3, 2012 4:49pm May 3, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting pipmutt
Well I can only speak from personal practical experience rather than theory, by my standards the returns were excellent and to be honest by comparison to the 'experts' I wasn't even that good at it! I chose market conditions which suited my analysis style, it wasn't necessary to trade in all market conditions although I'm sure it's perfectly possible. Although I thoroughly enjoyed it, after ~2 years things got a little too intense for me and I toned it down, apart from time constraints it's more comfortable for me to trade longer time frames...

Also in the keep it simple, and the simpler I make it the better I do, so guess it works for me.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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