Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Okay, the last one for this morning - as I mentioned Sterling in earlier posts, I think it only fair to look at Cable.

Today it is raining in my little part of France, and as is my behaviour on such days, I tend to sit by the fire and look out onto the fields as I read the news. The cows have been left outside, so one assumes that the farmer understands that Spring is on the way, and that he has the patience to allow nature to make her own pace.

I’m not sure if anyone caught it yesterday (Saturday), but Moody’s joined the preparation fray by downgrading Greece to, well, the bottom of the bucket, and thus joined Standard and Poor’s and Fitch… all we need now is the Chinese to join in, and a default is a done deal as they seem reluctant to contribute to Europe until Greece is tossed off the cliff. The agency there is Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., and the world now listens to them.

I think we all know that the recent events of the past month or so is the politicians allowing big money to get out of the way/relocate assets, ahead of the PIIGS collapse, and the mad rush by all with any significant stake in federating Europe in order to dictate to the citizens, making the necessary preparations. I do hope the Irish give the elite-perceived wrong answer if allowed another vote, and thus undo the wrong answer the second time around, which was considered the right answer by the elite after they deemed the right answer the first time around, the wrong answer. You still with me reader…

And this brings me back to France, the farmer, and patience.

Sarko the barko recently stated that: “We have not exited the economic crisis but we are turning the page.” Hmm, statistical appreciation of key economic fundamentals would suggest otherwise, o wise one, but you continued to say that: “The strategy we put in place is bearing fruit.” Eh? You what? You mean rampant inflation under inflation metric methodology that does not take into account many an item most frequently purchased by the consumer. You know, like excluding food, and oil, from core price indices because you can’t keep up with the price fluctuations, and don’t seem bothered to add them on, oh, let’s say quarterly inflation figures. And how about the true unemployment figure… and so much more? Still, at least you have yet to readjust any statement of budget deficit reduction – you hide it well (but one can see the reduction in public service here in France) – unlike your counterpart in Spain who is in the process of preparing another begging bowl to be presented to the ECB.

As can be seen with the turning of each season, time is needed before any real appreciation can be made of what the future holds. Similar to the coming Spring, I will allow the turn in events in Europe to settle for another few weeks, before making any real decisions on long-tern trends, and dearly wish that each ‘ordinary’ European take time away from the propaganda of MSM and politicians – all blinkered in vision and direction as they ignore the big picture and focus on the immediate – and think for themselves as to what is best for them.

Come on Ireland, let’s topple tyranny via the ballot box… and don’t allow your puppet masters to banjax you with blarney. As Einstein said: “If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.” Which leads me to any blarney that your politicians may currently be guffing, and again to Einstein, who would probably reply: "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction.”

words of wisdom...........

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction.”

=========================

Discovered The Beauty Of Alcohol...........

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...?ncid=webmail9

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/514294/original.jpg

The last monthly candle (February) does not particularly signal indecision, although it has a lower range than the average and so we could say the rate of climb was slowing. The weekly is more interesting from a price action point of view and this is distinct from the "Japanese candlestick" strategy but also, in a way, part of it. We can see a similar topping formation in October - the weeks of 23rd and 30th - similar to what James16 of the J16 thread would describe as a "double bar high, lower close" formation. In fact these are not within that definition very precisely as you can see, but if we were to use the ohlc of the two candles we would get a 2 day pin bar. A bearish pin bar at a swing high in a down trend. Eminently tradeable. A break of 1.3166 with a stop loss at the high, maybe, but even better a trade on the hourly off a rejection and close below the 38.2 retrace at 1.3300. Yes 1.3300...

Looking again the last two weeks it is an almost perfect double bar high, lower close. The candles should be coloured gold in my opinion. I will be looking for opportunities to short. Please trade carefully.

...........so true........

http://wivesofdaytraders.wordpress.c...f-day-traders/

..........Peter Bain call them rail road tracks, they represent reversal patherns most of the time........

..........4H is taking refuge under the 200 ema and the yellow 5ema, with this low power is goint to be hard to go higer, me think.......this chart looks down and with juice for some more........but a turn is not out of the question at least for some air and then go back down.......

..........but as well as the 4H, one hour is oversold and turning for the up already, MACD cross show it.........also notice the red ema crossing the magenta 200 that friday wasn't cross, so a posible sinc for the down is in the game......everithing is down as of now here in this chart..........

..........and this 30M chart is down and MACD is positioning for another trip down me think, so pay attention to the rejections of the aqua line if MACD reach 0 line it may charge down again........or turn if it goes over the 0 line and it croses the aqua line ema 30..........so patience wait for a break out and follow the money, remember is bether to be out wishing to get in, than in wishing to get out........

............some body wasn't doing a very good job, having two trains on the same track.......what are two trains doing in the same track period, I though the idea of having a rail road track was to keep them separate, I don't get it..........

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/520879/thu...H-large570.jpg

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...6pLid%3D140452

..........Up the yurow, down the franc.......

..........I had my taget for 3250 but.......and 9100 but.......oh well at least the direction wasn't luck this time ah smikester , no luck this time, I saw the turn before it happens and posted it here..........so no luck on this one ah?......

Too much uncertainty. I've watched my trades whipsaw this morning and made a loss. The Euro put a leg down to 1.3200 just now and it's formed a strong support at that level so I think 1.33 is still a possibility.

........yep I see 3300 also, that is why I stay long even tho I miss my target and the time dosn't go with the trade, but lets see if I give it a bit more time to develop........I need 9100 on the franc and 3250 on the yurow to reach tragets........wish me luck

............3300, 3320 is what I have on the 4H chart as resistance........the magenta line.......

I don't know about you, but one of the problems I've been having in the last few years is the risk on/risk off equation. It seems as though, with the constant threat of an equities meltdown, currencies are controlled by the equity and bond sentiment. Add to the pot central bank intervention in its various forms and we have a difficult fundamental calculation when news is released.

Best to stick to the rules and accept days like today when I, for one, struggled to make anything stick. I know my strategy works.

Yep...

.........well I saw 4h bounce on the suport down there yesterday and took the long, news came and disturb it but I'm sticking to my guns here, so I will stay long and I'm luckyly lock in profits here so I got nothing to lose.......

.......short agreement........

...........monthly is down, but stuck betwing two ema's...........

...........weekly is down...........ready to go after that rail road track that you mention yesterday smikester............

...........but everything from 4H down just turn up for now after the news......."they want it up first" before doing anything ealse, sounds dirty but it is.........they are dirty bastards, this banksters.......aren't they?