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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #30,021
  • Feb 2, 2012 7:59pm Feb 2, 2012 7:59pm
hey guys,

I have a question, if someone could clarify it for me it would be appreciated. News around the yen brought a question to mind that I would like answered. Can someone briefly tell me if the BOJ intervenes, is there a timeframe they would do it by? Today? Tomorrow? within the week?

Thanks guys
  • #30,022
  • Feb 2, 2012 8:10pm Feb 2, 2012 8:10pm
They come in without warning, mate! With or without coordination with ECB and/or the Fed!

Back in Sakakibara's day, all he has to do is open his mouth and they don't even have to intervene at all.

Since Azumi, God knows!

Quoting 4rextrader
hey guys,

I have a question, if someone could clarify it for me it would be appreciated. News around the yen brought a question to mind that I would like answered. Can someone briefly tell me if the BOJ intervenes, is there a timeframe they would do it by? Today? Tomorrow? within the week?

Thanks guys
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #30,023
  • Feb 2, 2012 8:14pm Feb 2, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting skenobi
They come in without warning, mate! With or without coordination with ECB and/or the Fed!

Back in Sakakibara's day, all he has to do is open his mouth and they don't even have to intervene at all.

Since Azumi, God knows!

Hey thanks for answering friend....I stopped all of my accounts until this whole thing blows over....so I wanted a time frame.

Sucks that its not really known when !
  • #30,024
  • Feb 2, 2012 8:49pm Feb 2, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting skenobi
They come in without warning, mate! With or without coordination with ECB and/or the Fed!

Back in Sakakibara's day, all he has to do is open his mouth and they don't even have to intervene at all.

Since Azumi, God knows!
azumi want to see nfp first if one sided move after nfp them he will step in!haha
Bismillah
  • #30,025
  • Feb 2, 2012 8:57pm Feb 2, 2012 8:57pm
Quoting krunfx
azumi want to see nfp first if one sided move after nfp them he will step in!haha

BOJ would care little about NFP. All that could do is weaken the USD. BOJ policy takes into account a basket of currencies and the USD is but one.

Which brings me to another point. If you trade USDJPY for trading's sake, it's a worthwhile but boring pair. However if you're waiting for the lolly scramble, as alluded before, why would you buy this pair with its typical 300 pip intervention rally. A pairing such as GBPJPY will give you far more lollies when that scramble comes around.
  • #30,026
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:00pm Feb 2, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting 4rextrader
hey guys,

I have a question, if someone could clarify it for me it would be appreciated. News around the yen brought a question to mind that I would like answered. Can someone briefly tell me if the BOJ intervenes, is there a timeframe they would do it by? Today? Tomorrow? within the week?

Thanks guys
Your question should be directed to The Bank of Japan, Tokyo. Mark it as: Attention Azumi San...........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,027
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:09pm Feb 2, 2012 9:09pm
Quoting realjumper
Your question should be directed to The Bank of Japan, Tokyo. Mark it as: Attention Azumi San...........

hahaha ill keep that in mind next time...
  • #30,028
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:32pm Feb 2, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting Mpt
BOJ would care little about NFP. All that could do is weaken the USD. BOJ policy takes into account a basket of currencies and the USD is but one.

Which brings me to another point. If you trade USDJPY for trading's sake, it's a worthwhile but boring pair. However if you're waiting for the lolly scramble, as alluded before, why would you buy this pair with its typical 300 pip intervention rally. A pairing such as GBPJPY will give you far more lollies when that scramble comes around.
haha..i like speculate market..its my hobby man!hehe
Bismillah
  • #30,029
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:41pm Feb 2, 2012 9:41pm
Quoting krunfx
haha..i like speculate market..its my hobby man!hehe
Fair enough. I get it that you like to speculate. But on UJ? Just look at the numbers ..

Oct 2011 intervention UJ 400 pips GJ 550 pips

August 2011 UJ 320 pips GJ 430 pips

March 2011 UJ 910 pips GJ 1780 pips (although we don't know the sole BOJ component)
  • #30,030
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:03pm Feb 2, 2012 10:03pm
Quoting Mpt
Fair enough. I get it that you like to speculate. But on UJ? Just look at the numbers ..

Oct 2011 intervention UJ 400 pips GJ 550 pips

August 2011 UJ 320 pips GJ 430 pips

March 2011 UJ 910 pips GJ 1780 pips (although we don't know the sole BOJ component)
U don't look at pip movement in that comparison but percentage movement I hope u understand why
  • #30,031
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:07pm Feb 2, 2012 10:07pm
Quoting sidhujag
U don't look at pip movement in that comparison but percentage movement I hope u understand why
No, I am a simpleton. Please help me to understand.
  • #30,032
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:15pm Feb 2, 2012 10:15pm
Quoting Mpt
No, I am a simpleton. Please help me to understand.
Sarcasm is not the answer but a position of equal size would have had more of an effect during two out of three of your examples had u stuck with uj

Coupled with the fact that you inherently risk more trading with less potential reward from an intervention because of higher average atr's on ej or gj from uj u really don't have an argument statistically
  • #30,033
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:44am Feb 3, 2012 1:44am
Quoting realjumper

If you set a pending order now, you will get into any intervention at a bad price because the slippage in such a large and fast move is savage......to lose 100 pips to slippage WILL happen and more.
Absolutely, and if your pending order is set for any space in between the intervention you will get filled at the top.
So what's the solution? To buy now like a few here have already done (some people here bought at 78.00 so these guys are already under water -200 pips).
The only way to guarantee catching an intervention is to buy with no SL.
So let's work this out, people have bought 200 pips ago around 78.00 and are prepared to hold until whatever price just to get intervention. So if the intervention doesn't come for another 400 pips, you're gonna have to pray for AT LEAST a 600 pip intervention, just to break even.
And lets be honest, that's if your micro and demo accounts can handle a 600 pip drawn down.
I just don't see a way of making an intervention trade viable as seen as your risk is unlimited.

On another note, interventions have only taken price up to the next major resistance. In this case price can be capped around 79.00/80.00. Unlimited risk for a possible 100 pips? No thank you!
  • #30,034
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:50am Feb 3, 2012 1:50am
Quoting fosking
Absolutely, and if your pending order is set for any space in between the intervention you will get filled at the top.
So what's the solution? To buy now like a few here have already done (some people here bought at 78.00 so these guys are already under water -200 pips).
The only way to guarantee catching an intervention is to buy with no SL.
So let's work this out, people have bought 200 pips ago around 78.00 and are prepared to hold until whatever price just to get intervention. So if the intervention doesn't come for another 400 pips, you're...
Quite so fosking, quite so.

I have caught several interventions because they generally occur around my lunchtime. After the initial surge, the price pulls back before really hitting the gas pedal......that's time to get in. But, if that window of opportunity is missed, then sit back and enjoy the show because the show will go on without us!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,035
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:58am Feb 3, 2012 1:58am
Quoting realjumper
Quite so fosking, quite so.

I have caught several interventions because they generally occur around my lunchtime. After the initial surge, the price pulls back before really hitting the gas pedal......that's time to get in. But, if that window of opportunity is missed, then sit back and enjoy the show because the show will go on without us!!
Haha I always miss it because I'm sleeping. Perhaps that's why I'm bitter towards intervention gamblers
  • #30,036
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:58am Feb 3, 2012 1:58am
Quoting Mpt
Fair enough. I get it that you like to speculate. But on UJ? Just look at the numbers ..

Oct 2011 intervention UJ 400 pips GJ 550 pips

August 2011 UJ 320 pips GJ 430 pips

March 2011 UJ 910 pips GJ 1780 pips (although we don't know the sole BOJ component)
all the intervention i grab..hehehhe
that why i like to speculate coz i have expereice on it before
Bismillah
  • #30,037
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:03am Feb 3, 2012 2:03am
Quoting fosking
Haha I always miss it because I'm sleeping. Perhaps that's why I'm bitter towards intervention gamblers
I caught the G7 effort because they all told us where and when. The others were by complete chance. One I wasn't even logged in to my trade station when one began, but by the time I logged in the first pullback had just occurred and I was in!!

It's just luck though, nothing else, and if I miss it I won't blink an eye about it. It's not trading, as you say, it's gambling.....and it's gambling driven by greed.....the worst kind.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,038
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:07am Feb 3, 2012 2:07am
Quoting realjumper
I caught the G7 effort because they all told us where and when. The others were by complete chance. One I wasn't even logged in to my trade station when one began, but by the time I logged in the first pullback had just occurred and I was in!!

It's just luck though, nothing else, and if I miss it I won't blink an eye about it. It's not trading, as you say, it's gambling.....and it's gambling driven by greed.....the worst kind.

hehhee...but this time if they do the yentervention... i hope it will do utmost ditermination... imean continously to prevent the pricce fall back...they need to make sure the price of dollar yen atleast above 80Y if .....just imho...hehe
Bismillah
  • #30,039
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:11am Feb 3, 2012 2:11am
Quoting krunfx
hehhee...but this time if they do the yentervention... i hope it will do utmost ditermination... imean continously to prevent the pricce fall back...they need to make sure the price of dollar yen atleast above 80Y if .....just imho...hehe
I asked you this question once before.......do you live on Fantasy Island?.... hu hu
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,040
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:13am Feb 3, 2012 2:13am
if you want to catch few pips from intervention why not to go with chf?
Atleast you know where to set SL..

Intervention on UJ will finally get it out of the picture and hopefully we will see more movements then just 15 pips per day... atleast that's what I expect from it

I am willing to go long without SL after we hit new low, doubt the price will stay few hundred pips below it with out going up. I will be going with smaller lot then usual so I can afford taking that hit if things go bad.
You might call it a gamble but in my opinion chance of BoJ action is much higher then slide for hundreds of pips south.

If BoJ wouldn't care about new low then officials wouldn't go with more and more statements on the media. Even if they words don't have any value anymore it still proves that they are worried.
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