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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,821
  • Jan 28, 2012 9:31pm Jan 28, 2012 9:31pm
Quoting grashid
...yup...still in ranging mode between 75.60/70-78.00 (but become smaller right now)...but am not suprice if it broke that support area and trying to test 70 within this Q1 in order for us to see a 55 direction for a longer term target...hence, will take a look how NFP reaction as well as Jan close to figure out what is going on before taken my position...

g
70 is like, getting super close to zero here lol, Zero is now much closer than the all time highs and really I could only see it going lower if the US collapses. I understand the danger of the US dollar depreciation, which is nuts and a horrible policy in my opinion, it's pushing keynesian theory to the limit, and I don't think anyone will like the end consequences.

Japan has a few cards left to play, I don't think they will let the yen continue gaining value. What was the point in intervening twice at 75 just to see it plummet more? I think it will definitely be defended.

Technical patterns and broken and decimated quite often, when you know there's fundamental patterns here, such as intervention and political sensitivity, I can't argue for going short, anymore than I can long. That being said, this is the EXACT reason USDJPY has been in such a tight range. So if you are a betting person, it's truly, do you short with technicals and ignore reality, or do you position for a further yen recovery and leave a generous stop on the downside? Either way, most traders have moved on to better opportunities in other currency pairs. I only trade this pair because it moves slow enough for me to keep up with.
  • #29,822
  • Jan 28, 2012 10:13pm Jan 28, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting lolygagv2
70 is like, getting super close to zero here lol, Zero is now much closer than the all time highs and really I could only see it going lower if the US collapses. I understand the danger of the US dollar depreciation, which is nuts and a horrible policy in my opinion, it's pushing keynesian theory to the limit, and I don't think anyone will like the end consequences.

Japan has a few cards left to play, I don't think they will let the yen continue gaining value. What was the point in intervening twice at 75 just to see it plummet more? I think...
Don't bet on intervention, simple as that avoid the currency is the best thing I can tell anyone but of course no one will listen. The next best thing you can do is trade the charts which is a downtrend. Don;t think place your SL and take your profits until your SL is hit.

Here is a hint on where your logic is incorrect. How did SNB let 1.5xx area go down when it was defended over 2 years by multiple interventions??? I remember my scalper which had NEVER lost since 1999 suddenly hit the first 150 pip SL on EURCHF when greece happened.

So basically lets say NFP comes out with a surprise and UJ tanks, BOJ can't do anything... just like SNB couldn't do anything... its too easy for big players to eat up retailers like us who put our SL's at 1.4999 or in this case right under the low where interventions occurred.... there is greater than 75% that the low will give.... I believe. I'm not trading the pair because SL's won't be respected most likely if it does happen, and I wouldn't long it since intervention usually occurs after a big dip.

Also if you're trading it cause its "slow" compared to other pairs, don't bet on that from next week volatility may be higher in JPY pairs, look at what happened last week another earthquake which started some movement. That triggered the run to where it is now taking out big stops. I think some movement is back in JPY pairs, so volatility strategies may work to give you some good gains, options may be good since they are not pricing it in yet.
  • #29,823
  • Jan 28, 2012 11:01pm Jan 28, 2012 11:01pm
Quoting fosking
Hey guys, how's it going?

Not been anywhere near this pair for quite a while now.
I don't have any real direction but my chart is showing bearish signs still.
My next two support areas are 76.20 and 75.73, after that is anyones guess.

Here's my chart.
Daily
Attachment
Hey there fosking....nice to see you back here. I just arrived back myself too. I'm not trading this pair until we get a confirmed reversal and then, as you will remember, I will long this thing all the to 100+. For the time being, there are much better pairs to trade to make money from, so that is what I'm doing. However, like our old friend Noda.....I'm watching closely!!

RJ
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,824
  • Jan 28, 2012 11:21pm Jan 28, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting realjumper
Hey there fosking....nice to see you back here. I just arrived back myself too. I'm not trading this pair until we get a confirmed reversal and then, as you will remember, I will long this thing all the to 100+. For the time being, there are much better pairs to trade to make money from, so that is what I'm doing. However, like our old friend Noda.....I'm watching closely!!

RJ
hehe..i like the word watching
Bismillah
  • #29,825
  • Jan 29, 2012 12:45am Jan 29, 2012 12:45am
Quoting realjumper
Hey there fosking....nice to see you back here. I just arrived back myself too. I'm not trading this pair until we get a confirmed reversal and then, as you will remember, I will long this thing all the to 100+. For the time being, there are much better pairs to trade to make money from, so that is what I'm doing. However, like our old friend Noda.....I'm watching closely!!

RJ
Hey realjumper, how are you?

I'm the same, I haven't touched this pair for ages now and I don't intend to at the moment.
If the USD continues to get hit like it did last week, UJ will go down.

I honestly don't see any other way of playing UJ except selling any intervention, it seems to be the only strategy which has constantly worked.
Simply betting on an intervention because you think that's what the BOJ will do is naive. We have absolutely no clue when or even if the BOJ will intervene again. What happens if their next intervention level is at 70.00? You are ultimately risking an unknown amount of pips to make around 300-400 purely based on luck. No thank you, I can make that easily based on technicals on other pairs.
  • #29,826
  • Jan 29, 2012 3:53am Jan 29, 2012 3:53am
waiting tomorrow market open......
interesting to see the movement of yen and also chf.....
but it is still possible maybe CB are waiting for NFP first???anyone????huhu
Bismillah
  • #29,827
  • Jan 29, 2012 4:54am Jan 29, 2012 4:54am
one of the interesting news....

and i like the word “Everything will be solved once the finance minister says okay,”

hahaha....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...wata-says.html
Bismillah
  • #29,828
  • Jan 29, 2012 12:30pm Jan 29, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting fosking
Hey realjumper, how are you?

I'm the same, I haven't touched this pair for ages now and I don't intend to at the moment.
If the USD continues to get hit like it did last week, UJ will go down.

I honestly don't see any other way of playing UJ except selling any intervention, it seems to be the only strategy which has constantly worked.
Simply betting on an intervention because you think that's what the BOJ will do is naive. We have absolutely no clue when or even if the BOJ will intervene again. What happens if their next intervention level...
I am very well thanks my friend......summer is in full swing here and things are doing quite well.

We're on the same page as far as this pair is concerned, and also on the 'intervention' issue. I'm not here to gamble, and prefer to trade other pairs where the R:R is much, much better. This pair will get it's chance, and when it does I will be interested, but until then there is good money available on other pairs.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,829
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:01pm Jan 29, 2012 5:01pm
Don't know about you guys but U/J seems to be a very clear long right now. Needless to say I'm heavily long at 76.77. Will exit if it closes below 76.69 on 3hr.
Happy Trading
  • #29,830
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:16pm Jan 29, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting extract
Don't know about you guys but U/J seems to be a very clear long right now. Needless to say I'm heavily long at 76.77. Will exit if it closes below 76.69 on 3hr.
Can you show this on a chart?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,831
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:33pm Jan 29, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting extract
Don't know about you guys but U/J seems to be a very clear long right now. Needless to say I'm heavily long at 76.77. Will exit if it closes below 76.69 on 3hr.

Damned hard to describe this as 'bullish" until you at least see a break above the red descending triangle

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #29,832
  • Jan 29, 2012 7:19pm Jan 29, 2012 7:19pm
I think we're going to see a retrace to 77.20 without an intervention. Even if we test the low my view is it'll be a whipsaw.

Depends if you see USDSGD testing 1.26. There's no clear accumulation there however, just a hunch. USDCAD has some accumulation down here.

Hope it helps.
Attached Images
  • #29,833
  • Jan 29, 2012 7:39pm Jan 29, 2012 7:39pm
Daily Pivots: (S1) 77.22; (P) 77.51; (R1) 77.74
  • #29,834
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:07pm Jan 29, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting fr_fxtrader
Daily Pivots: (S1) 77.22; (P) 77.51; (R1) 77.74
The information that you post is from last week.
  • #29,835
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:10pm Jan 29, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting Mpt
The information that you post is from last week.
Bismillah
  • #29,836
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:26pm Jan 29, 2012 9:26pm
yes the word that i really wait for long time..hahaha

JAPAN PM NODA - CLOSELY WATCHING FOREX MKT, TO ACT AS APPROPRIATE
Bismillah
  • #29,837
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:28pm Jan 29, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting krunfx
yes the word that i really wait for long time..hahaha

JAPAN PM NODA - CLOSELY WATCHING FOREX MKT, TO ACT AS APPROPRIATE

You sort of get the feeling that he misses his old job.
  • #29,838
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:32pm Jan 29, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting Mpt
You sort of get the feeling that he misses his old job.
hehehe....ok....nvm...wait n see
Bismillah
  • #29,839
  • Jan 29, 2012 11:32pm Jan 29, 2012 11:32pm
Daily Pivots: (S1) 76.38; (P) 76.93; (R1) 77.22
  • #29,840
  • Jan 30, 2012 12:06am Jan 30, 2012 12:06am
tight sl

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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