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EUR/CHF

  • #2,261
  • Jan 15, 2012 11:44am Jan 15, 2012 11:44am
yes the interbank trading.
chart below.

bottomed 1.20
lets see where will be price in 2 hours.
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,262
  • Jan 15, 2012 11:47am Jan 15, 2012 11:47am
On my broker I have

low : 1.20689
High : 1.20716

Very strange quotes you have my friends
  • #2,263
  • Jan 15, 2012 11:50am Jan 15, 2012 11:50am
Quoting Doc'
On my broker I have

low : 1.20689
Hign : 1.20716

Very strange quotes you have my friends
its the interbank trading. started 1hour ago.
mt4 brokers dont feed those prices.
xe.com is the only free way to read them.
or else you need an expensive broker.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,264
  • Jan 15, 2012 12:49pm Jan 15, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting _BBKing_
its the interbank trading. started 1hour ago.
mt4 brokers dont feed those prices.
xe.com is the only free way to read them.
or else you need an expensive broker.
Oanda is open for 5 hours and they have no such a quote. Ive seen wrong quotes from xe.com a lot of times in the past.
  • #2,265
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:17am Jan 16, 2012 1:17am
Quoting krunfx
are u craz???????
i dont think so at this point ....if buy euro swiss i consider... if sell..im not favor at all
Yes, I think he's crazy too but sometime it may happens...anyway, I'm long on this pair.
  • #2,266
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:22am Jan 16, 2012 1:22am
Quoting multi888
What about the 1.20 peg?
I don't think SNB will take any action, we may see E/C below 1.20 by the end of this month....
  • #2,267
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:26am Jan 16, 2012 1:26am
green zone sell
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  • #2,268
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:26am Jan 16, 2012 1:26am
Quoting Forexgain
I don't think SNB will take any action, we may see E/C below 1.20 by the end of this month....
Ok, thanks for the tips...let's see how it goes.
  • #2,269
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:45am Jan 16, 2012 1:45am
I am still staying out of the this pair. Or any EUR pair for the time being. US on holiday so be careful, lack of liquidity could make way for some extreme price action.

If I had to choose I would stay short, as spowell214 suggest.
  • #2,270
  • Jan 16, 2012 2:08am Jan 16, 2012 2:08am
markets are soooo dry this morning
  • #2,271
  • Jan 16, 2012 2:14am Jan 16, 2012 2:14am
most likely potential profit target- 161.8 fib level
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  • #2,272
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:28am Jan 16, 2012 7:28am
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - On 6 September 2011, the Swiss monetary authority fixed the exchange rate at CHF1.20 per euro in an effort to prevent further deterioration in the economy fundamentals, stating that it will defend that floor with utmost determination.
Due to warnings by the SNB officials about an “overvalued” franc, and along with deflationary prints in the CPI, worsening data coming in from the trade balance and the KOF indicator posting weaker-than-expected results, the swissie has been depreciating against the single currency since then, hitting a peak at 1.2473 in mid October, ahead of the SNB quarterly meeting on 15 December. But contrary to the expectations, the bank left the peg intact causing a sharp fall in the pair, accelerated after the resignation of the former president Hildebrand, representing a threat to the CHF 1.20 threshold. On Friday the pair bottomed at 1.2062 although closed slightly above that. According to M.Mansoor, Managing Director of Forex Exchange Strategy at UBS, “if the SNB holds EUR/CHF at 1.20 as we expect it still faces the prospect of deflation deepening in 2012 given the strength of the franc and rising recession in the Eurozone. In our view the authorities will eventually have to raise the floor target to EUR/CHF as high as 1.30 during 2012 now to offset falling consumer prices”.
  • #2,273
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:38am Jan 16, 2012 7:38am
Quoting multi888
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - On 6 September 2011, the Swiss monetary authority fixed the exchange rate at CHF1.20 per euro in an effort to prevent further deterioration in the economy fundamentals, stating that it will defend that floor with utmost determination.
Due to warnings by the SNB officials about an “overvalued” franc, and along with deflationary prints in the CPI, worsening data coming in from the trade balance and the KOF indicator posting weaker-than-expected results, the swissie has been depreciating against the single currency since...
they need prevent a downward spiral caused by deflation and even historically speaking, these are really strong chf rates so somethings gotta give. guess we will see.
  • #2,274
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:45am Jan 16, 2012 7:45am
I just read the same article, but the question I have is will the SNB allow for the exchange rate to stab the peg before it takes action or will it take action before this happens, personally I don´t think there will be intervention this week, and maybe even next week, hope I´m wrong in that one though, anybody has some thoughts on this?
  • #2,275
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:25am Jan 16, 2012 8:25am
Scenario
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  • #2,276
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:53am Jan 16, 2012 8:53am
Quoting xivh
I just read the same article, but the question I have is will the SNB allow for the exchange rate to stab the peg before it takes action or will it take action before this happens, personally I don´t think there will be intervention this week, and maybe even next week, hope I´m wrong in that one though, anybody has some thoughts on this?
they surely to make us surprise soon
Bismillah
  • #2,277
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:13am Jan 16, 2012 9:13am
If the SNB waits until the market tests the peg, then it may have too many players to fight for an effective intervention.
If they raise it 1.3, that still gives the euro room to do whatever it wants against the usd without too much resistance into the chf.
The Swiss economy needs the weaker chf to stabilize deflation which could really hurt the economy systemically, and the SNB needs also to at least send a signal to prevent a huge influx of investors. They have the ability to intervene, they have the world opinion on their side to intervene at this time, they've seen what a weak signal from SNB does, but the question is do they have anyone in the SNB with the guts to do what needs to be done. Someone has to step up and take control.
  • #2,278
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:19am Jan 16, 2012 9:19am
lol keep waiting guys i told u it will only happen when everyone is short
  • #2,279
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:34am Jan 16, 2012 9:34am
Quoting sidhujag
lol keep waiting guys i told u it will only happen when everyone is short
If everyone is short, that would make for an easy intervention. But from this point, to get to the point where everyone is short, the price would fall to less than parity. It takes time and momentum and a huge building mistrust in the ECB to get everyone to be short, and then the ECB wouldn't stand a chance at that price with that many people getting to the point where they are short.
In order for everyone to be short, there has to be a period of going short where the markets start selling off until the point that everyone is short.
Right now, that's a long way to go and it's not worth it for the ECB to be getting that much money into the chf. It's easier to dissuade any investment and then intervene. They can't afford people going short because there is huge demand right now for their currency and they will be attracting that demand only to have to fight it, which would be way too big a battle. That's why they are defending the peg and that's why the best defense would be another higher peg.
  • #2,280
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:36am Jan 16, 2012 9:36am
Quoting werido
If the SNB waits until the market tests the peg, then it may have too many players to fight for an effective intervention.
If they raise it 1.3, that still gives the euro room to do whatever it wants against the usd without too much resistance into the chf.
The Swiss economy needs the weaker chf to stabilize deflation which could really hurt the economy systemically, and the SNB needs also to at least send a signal to prevent a huge influx of investors. They have the ability to intervene, they have the world opinion on their side to intervene...
The SNB will not raise the peg as long as the EU keeps on struggling with its debt crisis ( which could take months/years). They aint suicidal.

1.20 is all they can "safely" handle for the time being.
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