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  • #341
  • Edited 4:32am Jan 13, 2012 3:20am | Edited 4:32am
Hello all,

I have also decided to reveal myself from the darkness behind the screen J.

I am still being a slave to the System (office worker), however this is going to change soon this way or another as they are laying off the staff and I will be the next to go coz they screwed too many big things up.
But no matter how much I hate the way the whole world works (or doesn’t), I am proud of and thankful to this country for many reasons and will never ever forever and ever go claim anything. Ever.
I do not have much live experience as I work for 10-11 hours a day (UK), come back home very late, put my baby daughter to sleep, then read, learn, backtest the day, week, month, use different setups, simulators, control emotions, discipline, etc until I collapse. Rinse and repeat.

This is why I choose to become a full time intraday trader. Don’t have much working capital, but £2000-£3000 (half of my savings) should suffice. I will start as soon as the System will say no longer needs me. YES!

And when I think about the FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Khem, anyway...err… many thanks to Nexas… well, actually to all of you who noticed he has something special to share and respect him for that and all his kind help (I see that from your posts lol), I have confidence that it will work out for me as well.

Let’s see what the future holds for us.

No fear, no greed, no revenge, no hoping, no wishing, but (only thankful) praying allowed J.
  • #342
  • Jan 13, 2012 5:29am Jan 13, 2012 5:29am
Inserted Video
  • #343
  • Jan 13, 2012 5:31am Jan 13, 2012 5:31am
Hi Swingdjpj,

Thanks for your post.

You are right the simplicity is what makes this system work, and I wouldn't have it any other way :-)

Interesting about the pivots though. Which pivots do you use and what time of day do you consider the open/close?

Nexas
  • #344
  • Jan 13, 2012 5:36am Jan 13, 2012 5:36am
Hi Krisdetrader,

Wow you have a lot on at the moment :-)

I hope it all works out for you!

What I might suggest if you have fairly limited hours in the day to trade is look at something like a 50 range chart and trade the same approach as we are on the shorter term time frame but just on your longer term 50 range.

Let me know what you think.

Nexas
  • #345
  • Edited 7:00am Jan 13, 2012 5:55am | Edited 7:00am
Many thanks for your quick reply Nexas!

I have only been testing RB up to 20 max, so I will definitely try it out tonight.

(sending this message secretly from my workstation, so need to hide from the gestapo...)

Have a good day everyone!


Trading psychology, Chapter One - Alter Ego:

The Terminator (T3): "It is time."
A. Hitler (The Fall): "Nein, Nein, Nein, Nein, Nein, Nein, Nein, Nein, Nein!"
  • #346
  • Jan 13, 2012 6:46am Jan 13, 2012 6:46am
Hi Nexas,

Congrats on a nice trading day. I'm still impressed with your methodology and its simplicity. Using the 8 range bar as a guide chart for 4 range bar entries gives you an excellent reward/risk ratio. Do you ever keep a partial runner or do you always exit 100% at the swing point? Especially yesterday with the news winds at their backs, some of your trades went up for a long time.

Something else to consider. Your 8 range bar trade stopout at 13:14. There was big news scheduled at 13:30 (US retail sales, unemployment claims, and an ECB press conference). Usually wise to wait for big news when that close timewise. Also, at that time price was just above the central pivot point (1.2717 on that day) which very frequently acts like a black hole and pulls price to it. It indeed did that as, even though the news was such that wanted to push EURUSD up, it first went down to visit the central pivot before roaring upward.

I'm not trying to add undue complexity but as Einstein said, "A scientific theory should be as simple as possible, but no simpler."
  • #347
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:03am Jan 13, 2012 7:03am
Hi SCJohn,

I'm trading the emini futures so I don't have access to the forex charts but my guess the losers that Nexas had on his charts from a couple of days ago and you said using the stochastic they weren't trades, were probably 4 bar pull backs that didn't get you stoch. ob/os. I think when the trigger is pulled by Nexas your stoch are probably both turning in the direction of the trade. If this is the situation, the easy way of over coming this without adding a stoch. is to simply require a 5 or 6 bar pullback before considering entry. The big question is by waiting longer are you missing a lot more winning trades by eliminating a few losers. The winners are much bigger so by eliminating them, you could actually be hurting yourself. Only time will tell..........Kadiddle
  • #348
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:10am Jan 13, 2012 7:10am
I've been doing a bit more work on the stochastic filter I talked about earlier. The jury's still out. I'm now almost certain it will increase win rate. However, because of its potential effect on trade size (given a fixed $ risk per trade) it may actually reduce long term profitability. I've seen this in a lot of filters -- win rate goes up but profits go down. Should know in a few days and I'll post it when I do.
  • #349
  • Jan 13, 2012 8:15am Jan 13, 2012 8:15am
Quoting kadiddle
Hi SCJohn,

The big question is by waiting longer are you missing a lot more winning trades by eliminating a few losers. The winners are much bigger so by eliminating them, you could actually be hurting yourself. Only time will tell..........Kadiddle
Hi Kadiddle,

I did not see your post before I wrote mine.

You're almost certain not to eliminate winners with the stochastic filter as all winning trades would have to go through a stage where both stochastics point in the right direction. However, losing trades do not have to go through this stage so some would be eliminated.

The bigger problem is the effect on trade size by waiting for this to happen. By waiting, trade sizes are smaller (again assuming fixed $ risk) and wins are smaller. So, the question is which produces the most $. The filter will surely increase win rate but, as my previous post says, could actually reduce $, but not because of foregone winners.

Won't know till I have more data but, if the $ results are very close, it would be better to ignore the filter in the interest of simplicity.
  • #350
  • Edited 9:21am Jan 13, 2012 8:56am | Edited 9:21am
Hey Nexas

On your journal video, why would you take your last trade on the 8 range after you had just been stopped out?..........the MA had curled down

You had ignored your last 4 range entry for this reason

thanks

Just realised the last trades on your 8 range chart looks to be the same point as your last 4 range trade,but you give it as a different time? ......... 3.10 and 2.24?
  • #351
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:02am Jan 13, 2012 9:02am
Quoting scjohn
Hi Kadiddle,

I did not see your post before I wrote mine.

You're almost certain not to eliminate winners with the stochastic filter as all winning trades would have to go through a stage where both stochastics point in the right direction. However, losing trades do not have to go through this stage so some would be eliminated.

.
scjohn.......the winning trades you would miss with the stoch are those trades that are winners, due to the 4 bar retracement, but don't reach your ob/os areas, thus you'd never be in the winning trade if I understand what your're saying.......kadiddle
  • #352
  • Jan 13, 2012 10:39am Jan 13, 2012 10:39am
Quoting kadiddle
scjohn.......the winning trades you would miss with the stoch are those trades that are winners, due to the 4 bar retracement, but don't reach your ob/os areas, thus you'd never be in the winning trade if I understand what your're saying.......kadiddle
You're right. That's the only way you'd miss a winning trade -- never get to ob/os. That's what happened in yesterday's potential two missed trades that I mentioned in my Jan. 12 post. However, once you do reach ob/os, you can't miss a winning trade as the stochs are sure to turn in the right direction long before you reach the target.
  • #353
  • Jan 13, 2012 1:00pm Jan 13, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting scjohn
You're right. That's the only way you'd miss a winning trade -- never get to ob/os. That's what happened in yesterday's potential two missed trades that I mentioned in my Jan. 12 post. However, once you do reach ob/os, you can't miss a winning trade as the stochs are sure to turn in the right direction long before you reach the target.
To me the key is to examine your winners and see how many of them were the result of waiting for a 5 or 6 bar retracement. We know we run into situations where the 4 just aren't enough. But is it that often. When the 4 bar retracement fails, you many times wind up getting back in after another bar or 2 additional in the retracement. Ideally I like eliminating as many losers as I can and if it comes at the cost of some winners so be it.......Kadiddle
  • #354
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:01pm Jan 13, 2012 7:01pm
Hi Fourx,

With regards to trades I take on the 8 and not on the 4. The 8 range is a stronger chart for me. So I am more willing to take less than perfect entries on the 8 than I am on the 4. The risk to reward on that trade was excellent so even if I am wrong 2 times out of 3 I can sill make money on those trades and it is just a personal choice that I am willing to take those trades.

Does that make sense.

I am a little confused by your last comment?

Let me know if you need more explanation.

Nexas

Quoting FOURX
Hey Nexas

On your journal video, why would you take your last trade on the 8 range after you had just been stopped out?..........the MA had curled down

You had ignored your last 4 range entry for this reason

thanks

Just realised the last trades on your 8 range chart looks to be the same point as your last 4 range trade,but you give it as a different time? ......... 3.10 and 2.24?
  • #355
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:03pm Jan 13, 2012 7:03pm
Hi Scjohn,

Thank you for the input, I do look at the announcements but sometimes get a little aggressive as I am usually only in a trade for 10 mins or so. :-)

Nexas

Quoting scjohn
Hi Nexas,

Congrats on a nice trading day. I'm still impressed with your methodology and its simplicity. Using the 8 range bar as a guide chart for 4 range bar entries gives you an excellent reward/risk ratio. Do you ever keep a partial runner or do you always exit 100% at the swing point? Especially yesterday with the news winds at their backs, some of your trades went up for a long time.

Something else to consider. Your 8 range bar trade stopout at 13:14. There was big news scheduled at 13:30 (US retail sales, unemployment claims, and an...
  • #356
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:07pm Jan 13, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting kadiddle
To me the key is to examine your winners and see how many of them were the result of waiting for a 5 or 6 bar retracement. We know we run into situations where the 4 just aren't enough. But is it that often. When the 4 bar retracement fails, you many times wind up getting back in after another bar or 2 additional in the retracement. Ideally I like eliminating as many losers as I can and if it comes at the cost of some winners so be it.......Kadiddle
Kadiddle,

Can I offer you some advice please? If I am wrong I am sorry :-)

You sound a little like you about to embark on a journey that most newbies do, and it rarely ends well and at best costs you a lot of time.

You really can't avoid losers in this game and over optimizing something can quickly eliminate its edge when a market condition changes. If you over optimize you are forever doing it as conditions always change and different filters come into and out of vogue.

Your focus should be your bottom line and not eliminating losers even at the cost of winners.

Does that make sense?

Nexas
  • #357
  • Jan 13, 2012 8:23pm Jan 13, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting Nexas
Kadiddle,

Can I offer you some advice please? If I am wrong I am sorry :-)

You sound a little like you about to embark on a journey that most newbies do, and it rarely ends well and at best costs you a lot of time.


Nexas
Hi Nexas. You certainly aren't offending me. We only know one another from a brief couple of posts and that's hardly enough time to get to know one another. Actually, I'm not a newbie. I've been trading pretty much full time for more than a decade. I've been strictly a short term scalper and I've really tired of jumping in and out on short term trades where your stop loss is larger than your winners. I've been thinking about trading longer term and then stumbled onto this forum. I like very much what you're doing, but in all honesty, I had nor have I any idea as to how long you've been doing this. I know I saw a statement you made and thought maybe this topic was still wide open for input. You said, "Hehe... to be honest, there isn't anything magic behind it, they just seem to work. The 20 was because I reade Pitbull by my hero Marty Schwartz and he uses a 10... but then 10 was little two close so I doubled it. The 60 was from something I read as well but don't recall the source and the 100 just seems to be a bit of an industry standard. I knew what I wanted and that combination worked... but then I would imagine most similar combinations would work just the same... So from this statement you might see where an outsider might think that this method is loosely put together and maybe needed some additional input. I'm probably wrong about that but I thought you were maybe looking for any other outside input. As far as I knew you could have been doing this only for the last month. So I thought I'd throw in some other thoughts which may or may not be helpful. I know all about optimizing, and I'm not looking to do that. But if you've been running with this a long time, and you have been successful with it, and producing real money, then I won't suggest anything else and run with what you're saying. I certainly don't want to reinvent the wheel. Keep up the good work and thanks for all your unselfish efforts.....Kadiddle
  • #358
  • Jan 14, 2012 2:58am Jan 14, 2012 2:58am
Hi Kadiddle,

I am sorry for the assumption

In answer to your question, I have been trading since 2005 and trading this way for maybe the last 18 months. I do trade for a living.

I started trading this way when the trends on the longer term time frames started to become a little harder to follow due to whipsaws and the fact that fundamentally everyone was in a bad way, so there wasn't the solid fundamental story to follow. One minute the eurozone were screwed the next the US debt ceiling was the issue then back the the ex etc..


With regards to the moving averages, I was just letting everyone know how I came up with them for transparency reasons. So I guess that would indicate that one could possibly do more work on the system, although for me personally I am more than happy trading with my approach, although I am not arrogant enough to believe it is the best in the world hence being willing to listen to peoples suggestions.

I guess all I was trying to do was offer advice to a person who I thought was just starting out, to put them in the picture of what real trading is about i.e. you can't not take losses.

Anyway thank you so much for your posts and contribution!

Happy weekend everyone :-)

Nexas
  • #359
  • Jan 14, 2012 4:52am Jan 14, 2012 4:52am
What a really interesting thread - and run by a fellow Brit - and a fellow Arsenal suuporter if I'm not mistaken. With such a combination how can it fail lol.

Do you have (or see any merit in) a skype (or similar) room ?

Range bars are great just with horizontal S&R and trendlines and 1,2,3's.

The only addition I like is the mini charts H1 H4 D1 so you can see the bias and the bigger picture.

Mike
  • #360
  • Jan 14, 2012 9:30am Jan 14, 2012 9:30am
Quoting swingdjpj
...Oh, and by the way, the lead-in for your video today was very impressive. Looked like something that Dreamworks or some other big Hollywood production company would have.

Keep up the great work and good trading everyone!

Cheers,
Hehe... I wish I could take credit for it, but I paid someone to do it for me
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