diary of my descent to madness...

Love your posts. Very amusing and also poignant.

thanks, robertslive, tradeprice and smikester...Told you I was a crap trader!

Actually it's quite exposing, putting myself up here warts and all...wouldn't be quite so bad if I was sizzling good and being asked to show proof of my live trading accounts! Somehow I don't think anyone will be asking me that little kwestion anytime soon...

It's also very humbling, all you who have posted don't even know me and have spent time trying to help - not such a cynical old world after all...

robertslive, have had a look at your blog, thanks, you sound as if you've got the mental side trading on an even keel, keep it up. I know I am trading emotionally, one of the reasons I started this thread, and even in this short space of time I can sense eyes popping, akin to Road runner meeting cliff edge...don't fret, I'll either have to shape up or give up. So far I don't intend to give up..
Thanks too, for the thread links. I've only had time to have a glance at them so far.

And gejordan, the reason I stopped doing whatever I was doing the first time around, was it stopped being profitable, I used to trade the frankie open into london open - see Islander & Medici's thread - at that time there
was usually very good momentum with follow thro, just in that couple of hours a day, then, for me anyway, it became less easy to predict, and over time got chopped to bits, ended up trading more of the day...wood and trees ensued. Good luck with your new mentoring endeavour, don't know if I could thole the responsibility without taking on more than I should, so kudos.

No trading today, work, for a few coins over minimum wage, yet shedload, compared to Fx. Sometimes I'd like to be a man, all exclusive and breadwinnery, ditch the domestic dross and kids school mum rote (i.e. serial killer prevention and gap year taken working at local supermarket instead of swanning of to parent funded siberia) yet, I cannot imagine a life tougher if this was your main source of income.

thanks to you all for your suggestions, good luck Annieb

6.10am - PRE TRADE ANALYSIS – euro/$ - major trend down, current trend down.

£/$ - down, but not as much as euro ...
Euro/£ - down, making new lows = euro weakness.

Prior day high 3080 low 2900 (no lower low)

Descending T/L hrly chart. Making LL’s

?2900 support or ? DB @2855.

? pullback to trendline - ? 960 area, ? old fib extension @940, or ? retest 3000.

News 7am, 9am, cable 9.30am

Plan sell break of lows or pullback.

OPENING BALANCE $118


TRADES
1) 6.40am - sell @ 2910. 1000u. Reason made LL. Usual fakey, a couple of pips peek out, and straight back in. Trap for the weak (me).

6 57 am ADDED - @ 2923, LH & T/L. 1100u, had to get ready for work – so left trade alone, returned – price had moved back down to test lows – but missed it – now back up , hesitated, and big candle – straight up to 2940...

7 59am ADDED @ 2938, 2000u – circa 2945= 5% DD. Reason, expected a pullback at least to T/L on open of 8am candle.


8 01am - Had to leave for work. Left trade open, rationale – either going to hit DD max or turn.


9 35am – returned, totally expecting to have lost – to see price had travelled to 2850, currently, retracing, closed position one and two @ 2978 - Left position 3 open, but closed at 2968, when price failed to make LL. Gain 19%


Would love to say I’d planned the trade, but in truth I would more than likely closed around about 2900 or higher had I been around, fearing bounce back up to test highs. Something to take on board.


Retrospectively – price made new lows @ 2930 area, hrly chart shows clear, strong down trend, however 5 min chart show quite deep retraces. ? buyers on board.


Got to go back to work now. Good luck Annieb

Dear Annie..

if you want to see result you must be able to see supply and demand on the charts. you do not require to do so much analysis.

This is the only way you can make sense of the price movements..

Head over to ken's thread. We can help you there.

Do not rely on indicators or anything.

Absolutely true

Double true

Hi annieb, I hear you. I've been a carbon copy of you but for only 2+ years. Also middle aged and doing the school runs, tried scalping and most other techniques including countless books and a live trading course.
You need to keep investigating different styles. I don't think scalping is good for an unsuccessful trader or trader in the making.
I also would like to advise the use of multi time frames to get a visual picture of where price is heading and where it is likely to retrace.

Also go back to demo, no use wasting even 5cents on a method or plan not working.
I'm still going around in circles but am working at the above to form a new plan and style that is more successful.
You need to believe in your methodology or it will never work for you.
Keep working at it, it's all you can do.

The blind leading the blind......

Something here to think about............“The illusion has been created that there is an explanation for everything with the primary task to find that explanation.”
“If a market is going up you go long; if it is going down, you go short. The only reason you take a trade is because the market is doing something.”
“We decided that systematic trading was best. Fundamental trading gave me ulcers.”
A Quote from Michael Covel's book "Trend Commandments"

Very true experience indeed for an aspiring trader, not just on forex but traders in general. I've been there, burned money in 2001 trading stocks (way more money than what you burned).

Do keep in mind, that forex is very good because of its propensity to trend and to get the best of it is to:

1. enter at the beginning of the trend - This is still a quite period as the price action is boring.
2. put a SL - to protect your money and to let you know that you're not invincible and that the potential trend has reversed
3. be PATIENT
4. take profits a long the way
5. be DISCIPLINED

I disagree. I use indicators to time my entries and exits and it worked for me.

Great and you're quite right - my bad.

On the basis it works for you than I have no argument at all with your point

However all posters on all forums throughout the world post their own opinions

Trading has only begun to make sense for me after taking all the 'stuff' off my charts and I'd suspect it would benefit Annieb to take a similar step back both in timeframe and pressure...

Hence my comment which pretty much derives from my own relief at doing a similar thing. We all see the world/truth through the filter of our own experience.

There's another thread somewhere along the lines of 'all indicators are junk' that I gave up reading as it descended into name calling pretty rapidly - lol

Just as there are many ways to skin a cat, park a car (lol) or bring up kids there are as many ways to trade.

I resolve to post facts rather than opinions here in future and retract my rather 'broad brush' statement

Best regards

Rob

New week begins...

No trading on Friday – NFP – lesson well learned - as predictable as the horse you are randomly given in the office sweep on derby day.


Thanks to all who've posted –


Zamfir
– I have huge admiration for Ken, he’s a great teacher - I followed him from babypips to eohater’s thread, then his own thread on that. And I have dabbled thro a few of Sam Seiden’s webinars before – conclusion, you are right, I cannot see Supply and Demand on chart. I lose it when it goes thro a level – then what? The only thing I got from it, was if price had a strong reaction to an area before, twas high odds it would again – but pinpointing which/right level eluded. It used to really bug me when I’d sat there the whole day waiting for price to get to this wee shaded area that I’d boxed – then it would blow tho it....likely my failing and suppose as a short term trader – keeping historical reactionary levels in memory is something I don’t do, but should.



Ozpips –
Thanks, hopefully you will succeed much sooner than me, however, apart from practicing stuff or using the strategy tester – which I do - it is pointless me going back to demo, as emotionally, I don’t react the same. Let’s say I and Mark Douglas operate on a different wavelength....plus I have in my live account the equivalent of a week’s grocery bill, inflation aside...heck, I’ll just starve the kids...good luck.

Tradestar –
I looked at your journal, and link, as clear as mud so far, impressive equity curve tho... I assume by your a-hem gentle derision I’m doing everything wrong....but Is trading really as simple as if price is going down, sell, up, buy? Got to be caveats.

Xtrader101 –

Thanks, glad I resonated – hopefully there is no-one reading this and going, oh shit, that’s me and she’s been doing this for 4+ years...I don’t really want to be anyone’s dreamstealer, more their cautionary tale. Thanks for the advice.


And Robertslive – thanks for your continued interest.


Good luck Annieb

PRE TRADE ANALYSIS – Euro/$ Trend down

Weekly high – 3076
Weekly low - 2700

Friday high – 2812
Friday low – 2700

Short term resistance –
Friday pullback @730
Friday high @812 R/N 800
50% fib @ 2888, also broken T/L.
R/N @900


Support @ 700

Long term support, 23% fib @ 2644, 2600, 2160, 1188

Would expect pullback to 800, 812 – 770 range.

No reason for downtrend not to continue, but rarely see 3 strong down days without an ensuing pullback. ? risk off after +ve NFP.


Plan – wait and see - stops likely to be below 680, above 812 and above 3080.

? Only sell below 680, or after decent pullback, where opportunity exists to exit.

Am I going to do anything different this week?


Yes...

1. Try not to jump In like ferret up a trouser leg.

2. Try and follow thro with where I think price is going to go to and allow trade to develop – rightly or wrongly.

3. I often let winning trades turn to losing trades, as I am unsure where to take profit, usually price will test an area of entry, and swing between +ve and –ve. This makes me hesitant, is it going back up/down?

Inevitably I sit there like a stunned mullet – shoulda, coulda, oughta scenarios, thus missing the opportunity to exit with profit or B/E. I’ve tried a breakeven stop, but too often this merits letting a perfectly good trade finish at B/E. And sod’s law or crap trader, I don’t put in B/E stop and it’s a loss I’m averaging out.

Yet, in placing a trade I should have accepted the risk - have I truly? I don’t think I have, my default S/L is 28 pips - is this too large? Yes, in comparison to my average profit – yet a small stop means I’m chopped and out more often than in. So I’m going to try and make a conscious decision this week to place a stop loss where in needs to be placed and then discover how I react.


4. Regarding TP’s - let it test, then put in breakeven stop thus taking my dithering out of equation.


I know you all think I'm complicating trading, but so far it's been a solo endeavour, so this is all I know, can't be an exorcist without knowing the devil.

cheers.

Yes annie trading really is as simple as that, with good risk management.

thanks tradestar - will keep that in mind...

Meanwhile, trading -

7am - Opening balance 143$

TRADE 1
Euro/$, 5 min chart, currently bullish, waited for a sell signal - PB @ 8.10am, sold break of this @ target 730 area...+ve 1-2, reversed & new high-ve 20.

Entry too early, expected price to reach 780- 800, didn't wait. Why...price appeared to be struggling, or I was...

TRADE 2
Sell again, @ 9.45am - target as before - thought price made LH, short lived, new high, -ve 8.
Flipped to long with 2500u +ve 10, exited as price, tho still making new highs, had moved over 100 pips o/n and was too close to resistance.

Retraced afterwards...as per by the time I'd switched to long.

TRADE 3
Sell LH @ 1050 am - exit +ve 4, thought price was stalling and news @ 11am might push it up to 800. Wrong. News -ve.

TRADE 4
Buy @ 760, as price looked set to turn back up and prior stall area - +ve just, then reversed, -ve 15, then turned, made HL, exited @ 775, as scunnered.

conclusion
happy with breakeven day...could even buy a snickers bar with my profit.
I tried to wait for trade signals, and emotionally I didn't jump all over market like a rash. However, in the main - my signals happened to be taken in wrong direction!

I did expect price to retrace up today, tho I also expected a test of 700 area, which as yet has not occurred, this influenced me against taking long positions, thus I traded what I thought rather than saw...

Could be worse - have you read the news page and comments - few unhappy bunnies there! By comparison I feel extremely stable...

good luck Annieb

Opening balance - $144
6am – nothing happening, ranging O/N. No momentum.

Euro/$ - Resistance @ 812 area, ? Ascending T/L - current support @ 760. Current trend slightly bullish.

TRADE 1( 5 min chart + hrly for higher T/F reference)
7.45am – price broke thro recent lows – short @777, stalled @ T/L exit +4 (subsequently broke T/L)

TRADE 2
8am – Long pullback to support @ 765 – reason – RSI divergence, 200 MA as support & sloping up – Stalled @ T/L exit +6 – went on to make low @ 745

TRADE 3 –
8.20 am – sold pullback @ 760 – exit +6 didn’t like Price Action.

TRADE 4
8 35 am - Bought Lows @ 745 – Reason - Prior Low, down move seemed hesitant & RSI divergence – exit +6 when began to pullback – far too early...

TRADE 5
9.30 am - Didn’t take long to highs as price was swinging about and didn’t know whether it was going up or down till too late.
Bought the pullback @ 790 area, expecting a breakout – however price action became a chopfest – exited +6 after retest of 800 failed.

Bored - price action like watching paint dry, tails galore - far too tempting for my trigger happy personality, so quit.

Conclusion- I continue to have no real clue of directional bias, and even when I think do, I continue to throttle any trade the moment it stalls.

The journal is helping, reading what I am doing, I am becoming increasingly aware that if I continue to trade this way, I’ll continue to get the same results. I think I am trading by habit.


Now for a bit of useless information...

I was reading an article last night and had a bit of a light bulb moment...

1. Question – Do you have an edge –

Answer - Yes, nothing to do with Fx tho


2. What is it – walking into the kids bedrooms and seeing them rat friendly yet again, despite the edge in my tone they’ve ignored for years.


Analogy, I have no edge and have ignored this for years


So, to bore you all some more...reading further thro the article – I discovered something else –


Trading (parenting) is about probability, not certainty. Nothing I do will 100% pay off – but by applying appropriate risk management and taking a longer term view, I stack odds in my favour.


Trading is like parenting, also applicable to health, work, study, hence sharing - in case it resonates with someone else.


Genius, eh...Mark Douglas eat your heart out


Good luck Annieb

Hey Annie, read your thread and it sounds like you had a very tough time. Have you read the James16 chart thread?
It helped me a lot:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

My account is the size of a 2 weeks grocery bill

Well Annieb,
I don't know how you juggle the home stuff and trade but most of my trading is done with my 2 1/2 yo boy sitting on my lap watching youtube videos of motorbikes on my second monitor.
have you read the book " trade what you see "?
I'm now on my second reading, months apart. It can help you see the market in another way. Instead of trying to analyze what price is trying to do you just trade pattern. A lot easier visually rather then playing into those rat bastard banks hands by doing what most other traders do.
Bring up a 30 min chart, make the candles small and look at all those double bottoms where price bounces?
I think trading patterns can be profitable and less stressfull then conventional trading.
Anyways keep up the good work

Honesty is a rare quality when talking about trading..

Probably your problem was thinking scalping is your " bag", its the lions den of trading.... the higher the TF the more sanity youll control...imho
never run before you can walk ( and if you can walk fast enough dont bother running..)

Thanks Annie for a most interesting read...wish you all the best..

Ja..