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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,681
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:47am Nov 17, 2011 4:47am
Quoting bandung
I entered short on London H period, after seeing price look like hesitate to auction higher than the Big Down Bar D on 5mnts chart.
the main reason for this trade is that london IB is cant auction higher than tokyo vah
stopped out at be+1, i should take some portion when it reach tokyo opening zone ... greedy evil
notice there is no m30 bar can close below tokyo open..
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  • #3,682
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:16am Nov 17, 2011 6:16am
Quoting bandung
stopped out at be+1, i should take some portion when it reach tokyo opening zone ... greedy evil
notice there is no m30 bar can close below tokyo open..
Nice, price & horivolume overlayed onto price chart...how do u interpret those histogram..?
  • #3,683
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:22am Nov 17, 2011 6:22am
I reverse my trade after some strenghths crept in & a retest below previous day balance VAL which represent a good trade location, 4 hours after UK open.

Given that price is approching previous VAH just prior to US pit opens, inventory could be deem as long. But since Session profile for UK reverse rx to the upside this would signal a change as it happens to the earlier TK session too.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/6...4nov172212.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #3,684
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:26am Nov 17, 2011 6:26am
Quoting Evak
I reverse my trade after some strenghths crept in & a retest below previous day balance VAL which represent a good trade location, 4 hours after UK open. Session profile for UK reverse rx too, to the upside.

Given that price is approching previous VAH just prior to US pit opens, inventory could be deem as long....

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/6...4nov172212.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us...
it took 4*M30 bars for me to realize something has change

the histogram is only closing price above or below daily open
...
  • #3,685
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:41am Nov 17, 2011 6:41am
Quoting bandung
it took 4*M30 bars for me to realize something has change

the histogram is only closing price above or below daily open
ah, that reminds me that i need to pm you on something that perhaps may already be in your pipeline
  • #3,686
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:45am Nov 17, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Evak
ah, that reminds me that i need to pm you on something that perhaps may already be in your pipeline
send it k..
...
  • #3,687
  • Edited 7:10am Nov 17, 2011 6:58am | Edited 7:10am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i got short 5 min after pit session open because we had a down bar increasing the chance of previous tpo to be a tail and adding that we had trouble extend the IB UK, even we had some absorption vol at tokyo high the bar ended in potential excess right below yesterday high and at vah from yesterday. the structure doesn't let for this to get much higher and all this summed i thought i have enough reasons and good trade location if this proves to be the high of NY IB. the risk is 25 pips the reward is ~50+...
edit: or not...
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  • #3,688
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:37am Nov 17, 2011 7:37am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011...rency-markets/
  • #3,689
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:43am Nov 17, 2011 7:43am
enter long on E period Open targeting 5 days vpoc
TK and London High taken out && acceptance above both vah
let see if it can break 3540/50
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  • #3,690
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:56am Nov 17, 2011 7:56am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting bandung
enter long on E period Open targeting 5 days vpoc
TK and London High taken out && acceptance above both vah
let see if it can break 3540/50
very interesting point of view, pretty riskier though if you take a deep consideration of facts...i still see more weakness, i closed most of my short on minus but i watch closely the rest and trying to be objective...
good luck
  • #3,691
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:08am Nov 17, 2011 8:08am
Quoting bandung
enter long on E period Open targeting 5 days vpoc
TK and London High taken out && acceptance above both vah
let see if it can break 3540/50
yihaa stopped out @be again
...
  • #3,692
  • Nov 17, 2011 11:09am Nov 17, 2011 11:09am
Almost an inside day or balance continuation of yesterday with lots of locals in control. Perfect rotational day to say the least, with yesterday VA providing good pivot.

Price now back to daily IBR (1st 4hr IB of daily). No major spikes in volume which is rather subdue relatively speaking.

So this is the forth time price try to look above yesterday TK's high & fail; twice yesterday & twice today.

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  • #3,693
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:45pm Nov 17, 2011 7:45pm
Quoting Evak
Almost an inside day or balance continuation of yesterday with lots of locals in control. Perfect rotational day to say the least, with yesterday VA providing good pivot.

Price now back to daily IBR (1st 4hr IB of daily). No major spikes in volume which is rather subdue relatively speaking.

So this is the forth time price try to look above yesterday TK's high & fail; twice yesterday & twice today.

Attachment
only got little from that rotation
after my second BE trade, I look for short entry around wed's poc. took some at wed's val. remainder pos@BE+1 hoping 3500 && Thu's vah will hold..
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  • #3,694
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:48pm Nov 17, 2011 7:48pm
looks like bottoming .............

while bottoming.... yeah up and down ................


****
tong foho zumatan ..................
Quoting bandung
yihaa stopped out @be again
not euphoria follower
  • #3,695
  • Nov 17, 2011 8:38pm Nov 17, 2011 8:38pm
So as i mentioned b4 2 days of balancing & now narrowing into a wedge as most balance would eventuate into.

Best to look just at the chart to see how it translate to the profiles we have been seeing.

Price is boundered between @3436 $ @3537; these are the springboard extremes in which we saw some minor excesses have take place.

So which ever direction it intends to take off form those wedges, avoid taking trades from in the mode unless u have a reason to do so, e.g. pullbacks etc

Good luck.
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  • #3,696
  • Nov 17, 2011 9:36pm Nov 17, 2011 9:36pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
So as i mentioned b4 2 days of balancing & now narrowing into a wedge as most balance would eventuate into.

Best to look just at the chart to see how it translate to the profiles we have been seeing.

Price is boundered between @3436 $ @3537; these are the springboard extremes in which we saw some minor excesses have take place.

So which ever direction it intends to take off form those wedges, avoid taking trades from in the mode unless u have a reason to do so, e.g. pullbacks etc

Good luck.
i got into a long at the break of balance area, without to much success. i like to trade this areas ...
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  • #3,697
  • Nov 17, 2011 11:40pm Nov 17, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting s7c
i got into a long at the break of balance area, without to much success. i like to trade this areas ...
I have manage an entry on the break of the previous bar on your chart..a pullback entry, i've reduce exposure on 30 points...UK likely to open out of range then....hmmm

BTW pls check your PM.

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  • #3,698
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:42am Nov 18, 2011 4:42am
Quoting Evak
I have manage an entry on the break of the previous bar on your chart..a pullback entry, i've reduce exposure on 30 points...UK likely to open out of range then....hmmm

BTW pls check your PM.

Attachment
still hold that one k? nice entry there
I'am in at second bus..
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  • #3,699
  • Nov 18, 2011 6:15am Nov 18, 2011 6:15am
Quoting bandung
still hold that one k? nice entry there
I'am in at second bus..
I am out auto out by 3600, but left with one bit of scrapes to test my syco level

Your "2nd bus" entry is known as "test of breakout". I would have add there if i have screentime...lol

I suspect NY may swing back up to 3600 maybe to show hand on that rn of 3600...as i m not see divergence with that RF indi
  • #3,700
  • Nov 18, 2011 6:56am Nov 18, 2011 6:56am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i took a short just before pit session opening based on the next considerations:
1-the tail from london right at the VAL from last week
2-i entered somewhere after TPO nr 2 breached the low of the previous confirming the failed up auction from the previous TPO + some VSA stuff...
3-i was sure about my entry when i saw the excess made in TPO nr 7 being filled confirming the price rejected second distribution.
i am very curious if you use fixed stops or you analyze the bars in order to proves you are wrong
*edit-we just got established the NY IB so we need to have range extension down and confirmed after in order to keep the trade...
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