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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,701
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:07am Oct 28, 2011 8:07am
Hmm..!!

Seems like a big drop is waiting for U/J Don't forget last Friday Sudden Drop which made it test the Post World War new low....
  • #28,702
  • Oct 28, 2011 9:21am Oct 28, 2011 9:21am
Quoting SIgurs
Absolutely true, but the lifespan of rethoric is not very long. Use it too long and markets will take you for a walk in the park.

Trading pattern last few days:
We see new lows forming during NY hours, but towards to NY close price moves up as fear for intervention is still present. Once European markets open price slowly drops as markets don't expect intervention during EU/NY trading hours. As i've said, fear for intervention is still present but it's decreasing as price makes lower highs towards NY hours. If they remain expressing their concerns...
Or even worse, if azumi or noda threatening to intervene, that means there will be no intervention today.

Now i can understand the pattern of the price movement on this last couple of days. Thanks for pointing them up.
I mean what I say, I say what I mean
  • #28,703
  • Oct 28, 2011 9:31am Oct 28, 2011 9:31am
Quoting FXMindset
as we can see previously till now,the intervention always happened in the morning when Tokyo Market Open

Mid Drop always happened at London Session

and Big Drop always happened at US Session

The reason is simple : Those Jap authories are sleeping and busy with their family time During US Session

and now the Naughty Big Boys has come back again to test another new low
Considering these days movement, if U/J doesn't shoots up (only due to intervention) till the time European market opens.. then one can safely go short with this pair because previous interventions happened during morning only but don't even think of leaving your short positions overnight.....!!
  • #28,704
  • Oct 28, 2011 9:49am Oct 28, 2011 9:49am
Quoting SIgurs
Trading pattern last few days:
We see new lows forming during NY hours, but towards to NY close price moves up as fear for intervention is still present. Once European markets open price slowly drops as markets don't expect intervention during EU/NY trading hours. As i've said, fear for intervention is still present but it's decreasing as price makes lower highs towards NY hours. If they remain expressing their concerns verbally only, we'll see a steep drop sooner rather than later.
Let's see if this pairs moves up in the next few hours, as it has done ever since it dropped below 76 this week. If not, Boj better steps up to the plate first thing Monday morning as shorters will drop it like a rock next week if they don't. Have the impression that patience is running out.

Just my 2 cents !
  • #28,705
  • Oct 28, 2011 9:51am Oct 28, 2011 9:51am
Quoting Forexgain
Considering these days movement, if U/J doesn't shoots up (only due to intervention) till the time European market opens.. then one can safely go short with this pair because previous interventions happened during morning only but don't even think of leaving your short positions overnight.....!!
Why not hold short positions overnight ? I do, knowing that every single bounce/spike will be shorted into as has been the case for the last several years.
  • #28,706
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:03am Oct 28, 2011 10:03am
Quoting SIgurs
Why not hold short positions overnight ? I do, knowing that every single bounce/spike will be shorted into as has been the case for the last several years.
In order to be on the safer side it's better not to hold Short positions overnight. Because previous interventions by BOJ happened early morning. I personally feel intervention by BOJ is no way to be seen in the coming days but who knows what happens tomorrow...
  • #28,707
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:05am Oct 28, 2011 10:05am
Would be a nice Short If We break the Red trendlines,but trailing must be apply as everytime UJ makes new lows this pairs would quickly going up because fear of Intervention
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily Trend.png Size: 28 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,708
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:08am Oct 28, 2011 10:08am
Quoting Forexgain
In order to be on the safer side it's better not to hold Short positions overnight. Because previous interventions by BOJ happened early morning. I personally feel intervention by BOJ is no way to be seen in the coming days but who knows what happens tomorrow...
It's about risk ... incase of an intervention all you need to do is wait a few days before you're back in the green and even less if you do an additional short into the spike. That's how I want to play this pair.

And ofcourse, incase the Boj decides to peg the Yen .... very bad luck for me ;-( Then again, what are chances of the Boj deciding to peg ?
  • #28,709
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:35am Oct 28, 2011 10:35am
Should I better cover my remaining short position ? Looks like Azumi is not kidding anymore. LOL



TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The dollar-yen exchange rate should more accurately reflect the recovery of the U.S. economy from the recent slowdown, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Friday, warning of possible market interventions to weaken the yen.
"The situation in the United State seems to be picking up more than earlier thought," Azumi told reporters, citing private consumption data as well as a surge in stock prices Thursday in New York following a deal struck by European leaders on measures to deal with the sovereign debt crisis in the region.
"Foreign exchange should reflect the real economy," he said, expressing his strong concern that "speculative development" has lifted the Japanese currency excessively against the dollar and other major currencies, adversely impacting the profitability of exporters in Japan.
The dollar briefly fell to a fresh postwar record of 75.67 yen overnight in New York. It traded at the upper 75 yen range early Friday in Tokyo.
"We will closely watch the Tokyo market," Azumi said, underscoring that the government will "take decisive action when it proves necessary" to combat speculators.
(Mainichi Japan) October 28, 2011
  • #28,710
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:40am Oct 28, 2011 10:40am
Trust me,ChartPattern always tells us the storied

Based on the current level and the calm side from BOJ (I know they worried but I can't any real action from them yet) I am will use current daily chartpattern with the scenario 'If" breaking down and Based on my Monthly chart target at least 73.40-73.50 next month

If 73.40-73.50 Break and Still no hard action From Japan Side then We might see 6. Level

Attached Daily Scenario and Monthly Next Week Forecast

1.Daily Chart
2.Daily trend
3.Monthly Chart - Next Month
4.Valid Monthly Chart Turn In Mess - This forth Picture preview valid Monthly Chart which turn in mess during japan Last Earthquake and cause a big spikes down,as you can see in the picture the trend meets the support beautifully but turn mess in the end so am try connected the spike down bar as the support - result in third Picture

Hopes this is Help
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily Trend.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly Mess.png Size: 35 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,711
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:40am Oct 28, 2011 11:40am
What a silly pair this is.. Hardly 2 pips move in past 45 minutes....
1 Pip UP - 1 Pip Down...
  • #28,712
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:46am Oct 28, 2011 11:46am
Quoting Forexgain
What a silly pair this is.. Hardly 2 pips move in past 45 minutes....
1 Pip UP - 1 Pip Down...
Waiting for a big move, silence before the storm. Question is whether it will be an up or dowmove .... I for one, have no idea.
  • #28,713
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:16pm Oct 28, 2011 12:16pm
Why intervene prior to G20 Nov 3-4 in Cannes ? Don't think they want to face worldleaders days after a one sided intervention. My guess is that lower prices will continue for at least another week. They will try to gather support for a joint intervention, which they won't get yet again. When will these guys show guts and fight their own war ? No wonder that Yen keeps on strenghtening ... bulls make money, bears make money and what about the Boj ? Losing money over failed policy ;-)

Could it be that the reason why price isn't moving up hours before NY close due to the above mentioned ? Shorts must feel confident .... and so do I ;-)

So much for a surprise move .... these guys are so transparent.
  • #28,714
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:18pm Oct 28, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting SIgurs
Waiting for a big move, silence before the storm. Question is whether it will be an up or dowmove .... I for one, have no idea.
Near the time of market close i don't expect any big up side move neither down side as during the whole day today it barely moved 28 pips...
  • #28,715
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:30pm Oct 28, 2011 12:30pm
Piece of shit pair, I'm gonna trade something else next week. Couldn't even reach a long order @ 75.70 overnight. I have 2 long positions left @ 76.80, couldn't even clear that last night. I'll just set profit @ 76.20 and forget about them for a month or so.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 74.xx next week.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #28,716
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:35pm Oct 28, 2011 1:35pm
She's back - Another New Low even for a few pips?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,717
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:37pm Oct 28, 2011 1:37pm
it's calmly making new lows, first 75.95, then 75.80, then 75.75, then 75.66, now it's just as calmly headed down. I mean the eur/jpy weakened the yen a bit due to the rise of the eur, but the intervention was in this pair and now it's like the market doesn't care. It's strange that there aren't many more buyers here, no jumps, just a regular downward bias. I guess people think that new lows aren't so important regardless of BOJ, or else there is actually real market force pushing it down, non-speculative.
  • #28,718
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:50pm Oct 28, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting werido
it's calmly making new lows, first 75.95, then 75.80, then 75.75, then 75.66, now it's just as calmly headed down. I mean the eur/jpy weakened the yen a bit due to the rise of the eur, but the intervention was in this pair and now it's like the market doesn't care. It's strange that there aren't many more buyers here, no jumps, just a regular downward bias. I guess people think that new lows aren't so important regardless of BOJ, or else there is actually real market force pushing it down, non-speculative.
Agree! After making new lows everyday it generally recovers from that lower level but today it's just hovering around today's lower point...
  • #28,719
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:51pm Oct 28, 2011 1:51pm
I think if yen can't beat the last post war low it will go up.
  • #28,720
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:10pm Oct 28, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Piece of shit pair, I'm gonna trade something else next week. Couldn't even reach a long order @ 75.70 overnight. I have 2 long positions left @ 76.80, couldn't even clear that last night. I'll just set profit @ 76.20 and forget about them for a month or so.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 74.xx next week.
Of course, just as I take my long order out, it reaches 75.70 and now I could have had 6 pips gain lol. well there are much better pairs.
For Monday: I am currently short EUR/GBP, short AUD/USD, short EUR/USD, maybe I could go long USD/CAD for a retest of resistance. We'll see.

Happy weekend to all. Normally I hate weekends because there is no trading but this time I welcome it. I've been too busy with this stuff but fortunately it paid of well. Even that shit pair UJ.
I started the week ugly with a 2% loss on EU due to wrong timing but came back nicely with overall a 6.7% gain on NAV. It only took a lot of screen hours. (100+)
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
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